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  • OPEC members increasingly keen to end oil glut: Nigeria oil minister

    From reuters.com

    The mood inside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is shifting from mistrust to a growing consensus that a decision must be reached on how to end the global oil price rout, Nigeria's oil minister told Reuters. Oil prices have slumped by more than 70 percent to near $30 a barrel over the past 18 months as OPEC, led by top producer Saudi Arabia, sought to drive higher-cost producers out of the market by refusing to cut production despite a supply glut. The price crash has crippled some economies that depend heavily on oil sales for income, such as Nigeria and Venezuela, and even Saudi Arabia ... (full story)

Buy the dips
Nobody gives a s**t about the weak ass countries of OPEC. Saudi runs the game.
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Quoting Pip Anon
Nobody gives a s**t about the weak ass countries of OPEC. Saudi runs the game.
But that is not the point here at all. The "weak ass countries of OPEC" are working with others within the setup to see how they can improve their fortunes is the news. So what has that got to do with whether or not "Saudi runs the game"? To the extent that they are able to do something as a group or indeed fail to do anything such as agree on cutting output, I guess is of interest to everyone trading the commodity don't you think?

The Crow (-_-)
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  • | IP XXX.XXX.166.3
Crow, no production cut proposal will fly without the Saudis, and the Saudis insist everyone cut, not just them. Nobody else in or out of open will cut, so there can be no deal. Fade this spike, imo.
Quoting Guest
But that is not the point here at all. The "weak ass countries of OPEC" are working with others within the setup to see how they can improve their fortunes is the news. So what has that got to do with whether or not "Saudi runs the game"? To the extent that they are able to do something as a group or indeed fail to do anything such as agree on cutting output, I guess is of interest to everyone trading the commodity don't you think?

The Crow (-_-)
Please. You think Saudi cares about that? Why go through this pain to wipe out us shale then stop right as things get bad?


I guess it's hopefully to those traders getting slaughtered bottom picking for the last two years.

Nigeria, UAE...these countries are nothing. If OPEC cuts then US shale ups production to gain market share. Simple
But OPEC has declined to trim output without help from non-members.
which so far have refused to participate.
it's a lips service only ?
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  • | IP XXX.X.14.217
Quoting Guest
Crow, no production cut proposal will fly without the Saudis, and the Saudis insist everyone cut, not just them. Nobody else in or out of open will cut, so there can be no deal. Fade this spike, imo.
Sure what you have stated is a reasonable assumption to work with but my point is that such thinking as you have expressed is also helped by the knowledge you have (for certain) at this time (going by the interview with my oil minister) that in fact (as he makes clear) it is still very rough going pushing the notion of a cut within OPEC.

With respect to your fade strategy, may I offer that it would be too early at the current mark. What will happen (given the market is a mathematically chaotic system) is that we still need to reach at least the 31$ handle with strong buying pressure calculated to hold circa 31.79$ at which level a downturn (if seen from that point) should trade well. The market is still rising because it MUST traverse the mean of a newly defined range to fall lower (or rise higher which we agree is unlikely though not improbable). Just my 2cents.

The Crow (-_-)
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the sauds dont have so much power, i mean venezuela has the worlds largest oil reserves.
Even if oil supply cut proposal is being put before OPEC's table for voting, and only Saudi voted againt it, can it be passed?
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  • | IP XXX.X.14.73
Quoting Adyreal
Even if oil supply cut proposal is being put before OPEC's table for voting, and only Saudi voted againt it, can it be passed?
On current OPEC rules it will certainly pass but of course that begs the question of compliance and enforcement. It's a tough proposition without the backing of Saudi Arabia and more likely when conditions within Saudi Arabia instruct a different attitude which is not too far down the line as marginal producers shut down operations and they and the wider market divest exponentially. That should assure in a year or two we see oil approaching 200$ once more. It is a cyclical thing and good for traders but not the producing countries when things turn down as they have at this time.

The Crow (-_-)
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  • | IP XX.XX.148.114
good question. it seems that Saudi has power of veto, according to precedent. also though Venezuela has the highest reserves, their cost of production is way, way higher than Saudi and other members.

"Saudis block OPEC output cut, sending oil price plunging"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-op...0JA0O320141127
Oil prices are not going up for quite a long time. Now it is Iran+Iraq's job to give pain to Saudi's.
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  • | IP XXX.XXX.234.166
All time high is $147 and we'll see it once more at $200??? It won't approach $100 not in a million years. If it weren't any Turks invading Syria as we speak it would already being traded below $20. It is a cycle, it is closed and it is over.
100 years of coal, 100 years of Oil and now 100 years of renewable energy. Put the oil back where you found it, change the drills with wind turbines and cover the sand of the desert with solar panels YESTERDAY!
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  • | IP XXX.X.14.73
Quoting Guest
Put the oil back where you found it, change the drills with wind turbines and cover the sand of the desert with solar panels YESTERDAY!
The all time high of $147 was not an act of God it was the result of the same stop/start regimen we now see in play that caused it, underpinned by expansions in demand within newly emergent economies. Such is in fact well predicted by the cobweb theories of microeconomics and nothing fundamental (including renewable energies) precludes the same kind of market action on the up phase of the current cycle. Therefore there is nothing realistic about being dismissive of my notion here that price will spiral to news highs on the rebound. As for renewable energy we are at gestation so applying the normal curve you can derive both cost and penetration (diffusion) implications and it is wishful thinking to deny what is evident by such an assessment. The obsolescence of oil as a primary commodity for economic growth is in no sense imminent and it is at this time pure hot air to insist otherwise. The place of oil is secure into the very distant future - and thus the relevance and importance of our views on this thread. Do not kid yourself - like it or not that is the way it is.

The Crow (-_-)
It's politics, my brother and politics is a bitch, so it's hard to predict what it will do and is able to do marvels
They can produce less oil if they so choose but as a short term measure producing less will fix nothing. Until the excess in storage is consumed the price of oil will fall. My target is $18 then spend many years building a base.
Quoting Guest
Put the oil back where you found it, change the drills with wind turbines and cover the sand of the desert with solar panels YESTERDAY!
Warren Buffet just won a ruling in a Nevada court that will pretty much kill the solar industry in Nevada (so his legacy utility can charge more $$$). There are a LOT more Big Players invested in hydrocarbons than in alternatives... probably by a factor of 100:1 or more.
We haven't been sure that if we held those (emergency) meetings that we could actually walk away with some consensus," Kachikwu said.

"A lot of barrels are tumbling out of the market from non-OPEC members, so the Saudi philosophy is obviously working. But it's not influencing the price higher, which means that whether we like it or not some barrels are coming in from ... members and non-members to cover whatever is dropping out.

I'm not sure but it looks like that OIL will go to south.
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Feb 14, 2016 4:52pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 18  /  Views: 4,914