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  • Deutsche Bank: "This is not an economy that is about to enter recession"

    From bloomberg.com

    Deutsche Bank's Torsten Sløk has spotted a ray of sunshine amidst all the doom and gloom about the U.S. economy. According to the the bank's international economist, there is now a significant "disconnect" between one narrative dominating financial markets, where some investors maintain that the U.S. economy is still too weak to allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, and actual economic data. Here's what he said: A fair amount of Sløk's data comes from the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index, in which the bottom third of the income ... (full story)

Im so sick and tired of the fucking bullshit. Deutsche Bank should probably spend a little more time worrying about the $70 trillion in derivatives that will blow up on their books.

If you can honestly say, while looking at just the economic data, that the US will not hit recession in the next 5-7 months you're delusional.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
The idea that this guy is basing his projections of recession on consumer sentiment are pretty idiotic... sentiment just follows the stock market really. Now that we;re back near the highs its gone back up... just like it will nose dive if stocks flash crash again.
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Quoting Pip Anon
Im so sick and tired of the fucking bullshit. Deutsche Bank should probably spend a little more time worrying about the $70 trillion in derivatives that will blow up on their books.

If you can honestly say, while looking at just the economic data, that the US will not hit recession in the next 5-7 months you're delusional.
The situation is much better than 2009, this isn't recessionary economy at all. Housing/Jobs/stock prices.. all scream that the mkt is in growth phase.. the only thing missing is inflation.. that too partly because of lower energy costs. No need for the gloom... raise the rates in October followed by December and probably every other Quarter from there on...
Quoting Sid1
The situation is much better than 2009, this isn't recessionary economy at all. Housing/Jobs/stock prices.. all scream that the mkt is in growth phase.. the only thing missing is inflation.. that too partly because of lower energy costs. No need for the gloom... raise the rates in October followed by December and probably every other Quarter from there on...
All the data is skewed, that s why they aren't raising rates. The housing market? I don't know where you live but housing markets are in the can! I guess you don't read the news, for example how a 15 Million home was reduced to 1 Million. I'm sure there are some housing areas that are good maybe the Hamptons!! In Long Island NY Jobs? There are a record number of people not in the job market, they just gave up looking. The Fed says we are at full employment?? come you have to be kidding me!! thats a JOKE! A record number of people on food stamps! Lower energy costs? Because there no demand for products not even from China!! We all know how China is doing, devaluing there currency to jump start exports?? Stocks? Banks are getting free $$ from the Feds and pumping it into the stock market! As soon as the Fed raises rates the banks will start cashing in on there stock portfolios and the stock market will reverse. I think we all know that the Fed is juggling the Stock Market & Currency Market, for political an other reasons. As soon as they raise rates the Party is over!!!
Its important to realize that Feds are done printing after 8years of QE
Now the narrative will be exaggerate any good news so raising IR becomes justifiable.
This will not change soon but date will be pushed back on every major red news.In essence market will be USD bullish until the cut then will deflate rabidly.
Range is good.I love range ideal trading situation for me.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
I agree, rates up then ....... no ? , your lying your arse off

If we're recovering rates will rise , if not its QE , Hyperinflation , Revolution etc, etc

1780 France , 1917 Russia .... probably a good idea to read some history!!
Quoting Pip Anon
Im so sick and tired of the fucking bullshit. Deutsche Bank should probably spend a little more time worrying about the $70 trillion in derivatives that will blow up on their books.
DB is one hell of a corrupt institution, perhaps one of the corruptest. Anyone who believes what they say needs to contact me ASAP, as I have some nice property to sell them in the Australian desert!

I think it's $75 trillion in derivatives and counting. What a complete farce?!
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  • Posted: Oct 20, 2015 11:52am
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 7  /  Views: 4,084