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  • World's Biggest Currency Trader Says Weak Jobs Means Weak Dollar

    From bloomberg.com

    The dollar is looking down. Citigroup Inc., the top foreign-exchange trader by volume and one of the banks to correctly forecast a weaker-than-projected jobs report, said Friday’s data will cause the U.S. currency to depreciate. With the Federal Reserve less likely to raise interest rates amid global economic growth concern, the bank sees refuge currencies including the yen and the euro benefiting. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined to a two-week low after a Labor Department report showed the economy added 142,000 jobs in September, trailing forecasts of 201,000. The index was trading higher for the day just ... (full story)

It's still 142,000 jobs added, not lost, plus these speculations are as correct as a flipped coin.
Invest in alarm clocks
Bloomberg has to at least appear relevant. Just as fast as the EurUsd shot up after news release it retraced to almost its start price. Very common occurrence. Trade what u see. Not what you hear.
FF = Forex Faggots
Higher Wages give the Fed a reason to raise Rate in October, but too bad Wages were flat this Friday....There's no way Inflation will get near 1-2% this Year unless somebody cooks the numbers....

I think that the USDollar or USD/JPY deserves a Correction... I would be happy to see a 1,000pips Drop on UJ by year-end.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
As long as feds maintain rate rise this year there will be a buying pressure on USD.
There is no way the Fed can raise rates this year. The Feds are the only reason the stock market is floating right now(PPT). They have no ammo unless they lower interest rate to -rate. we are amidst another major recession. The only real safe haven will be Gold. I'm expecting price to get back around 1325+ by year end.
Quoting TraderJoe1
There is no way the Fed can raise rates this year. The Feds are the only reason the stock market is floating right now(PPT). They have no ammo unless they lower interest rate to -rate. we are amidst another major recession. The only real safe haven will be Gold. I'm expecting price to get back around 1325+ by year end.
Bloomberg reports using this headline after having posted an opposite story just before the NFP data. In my opinion, Bloomberg knew what would happen after the data was released on Friday, and they continue to manipulate now posting a story like this. But I agree with it: and I agree with you.
Its going to mean weaker dollar, true....(no way fed raising this year) but you have to be careful here. Risk on/off going to be THE major factor for some time yet. Risk off going to strengthen usd against high yielding currencies (see 07/08). long e/u short u/j is the way to play it. They should work well as usd yields fall and also perform well if/when stocks head down to test the lows. Japan The wild card here, but I cannot see another big stimulus with the currency @ 120.00 it was 105.00 before. The measure did not pass by much then and with markets waiting for it now, this one would be so much less effective after the initial pop. I think they going to hold their bullets and hope they do not have to shoot. u/j 116-117 seems likely
We are in the exact same place as we were last year, right before japan qe and then euro qe in early 2015..... The stimulus held everything together. They cannot stimulate every year, it did not work. combine that with sovereign wealth funds (whose buying helped save the day in 08) They are in big trouble due to energy dropping and will need to sell stock to rebalance. volatility will stay high for awhile yet......The new game is don't get caught in the middle of the range
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Price goes up, I buy.
Price goes down, I sell.

Sometime I win and sometime I loss.

No big deal in news impact for small retail trader like me.

People are just got excited with what they dealing with.
I'm afraid it's correct, USD will be hammered against all major currencies and Euro is going up, I believe the EUR/USD downtrend is over and we're entering a new uptrend cycle...That's just my 2 cents, but based on what I am seeing in fundamentals and technicals, I think the downtrend is over and it's time to buy EUR/USD.
Simplicity is the key to brilliance.
The unemployment news from USA was a shock indeed to many market participants.
Simplicity is the key to brilliance.
However the unemployment rate stayed the same. Now we are into the seasonal hiring season.
Just to elaborate on the u/j call above, realize that up until the boj decision their will be a lot of HOPE in the market....I would not recommend a large short right here right now. This could very easily trade higher coming into the decision on expectations of another qe. likewise, w euro being able to move lower. draghi, last talked the euro down from 1.1220 area and I would suspect that in order for the ecb to take on more qe price would need to be above that by a healthy amount. Scaling in w small positions is prudent. save ammo for extreme moves, their is going to be an epic battle in the next couple of months. better to make good money with smaller positions and controlled risk, than lose money being over leveraged and right....good luck!!
142k added jobs is still a positive signal. Compared to past year stats it is a number smaller by about 100k, which are mostly jobs lost in minning sector. Mining = Oil&Gas. Taking into account how much the price of oil decreased in the past year this evens out to the number of jobs oil industry has lost.
With NFP down, and other data down fed won't be touching interest rates and sooner or later either 1 negative or 2 more QE.

Strength to the dollar during deflationary pressure.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
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the dollar will go down this week. the usd/yen will hit 113-110 in a couple weeks. just because the price reversed after the jobs number doesnt change the fundamentals. no rate hike is coming, it never was coming, pretty soon people will realize that the us isnt raising rates, japan will do more QE when the yen forces them too. the ecb wont add to their QE. in about 6 months the usa will need to do some from of stimulus.
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Quoting Patient1
Just to elaborate on the u/j call above, realize that up until the boj decision their will be a lot of HOPE in the market....I would not recommend a large short right here right now. This could very easily trade higher coming into the decision on expectations of another qe. likewise, w euro being able to move lower. draghi, last talked the euro down from 1.1220 area and I would suspect that in order for the ecb to take on more qe price would need to be above that by a healthy amount. Scaling in w small positions is prudent. save ammo for extreme...

totally agree. jeffery gunlach had some press this weekend and he basically said that the market is holding and hoping and that another wave of selling is coming which you could see on friday. people are buying and hoping that its a double bottom, when the market breaks the august low the move down will accelerate quickly.
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Oct 3, 2015 10:40am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 17  /  Views: 6,194