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  • UK: Will 2015 Be 'The Lift-Off Year'?

    From wbponline.com

    The next week in the UK does kick off with the public finances release on Tuesday (more on this later), but market participants will sharpen their focus more on the MPC minutes due Wednesday, and retail sales figures out the following day. Even though it is highly likely that all nine rate-setters at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously on the policy stance for July, comments that those rate-setters have made recently suggest we should be prepared for a bit of turbulence in the coming months. After more than six years of highly accommodative monetary policy in Britain, this year could be ... (full story)

Referendum UK no vote will be lift off.
Quoting gandolf13
Referendum UK no vote will be lift off.
Not due until 2017 tho', my call , no rate rise either side of the pond either in 2015 or 2016 (economies are way too weak & the powers that be have spent since 2008 blowing huge bubbles in Stocks, Bonds, Property and they know even a .25% move up will burst the bubbles, not to mention the derivatives that will cut in if rates go up

So, no, rates will stay at 0 or minus forever, rising stocks , bonds and property are now an entitlement, look at China
Well inflation is down from oil mostly.
Inflation broke above its 5month moving average 12months ago (oil $100+) just under 2%. Since then headline inflation dropped to 0%, and is again attempting to break above its 5month average. Now that oil has a range.

Headline Inflation/Core Inflation appeared to have bottomed June/July
which was expected as leading inflation indicators CPI, PPI bottomed in february

Wages are improving and so is employment. Unemployment rate went up from longterm unemployed going down. Other leading indications of inflation to grow.


Many said the same with the QE Taper for the other side of the pond, saying things in the order of... * Would never happen. ** Ok well they cant taper more than that. *** Ok well they can taper more but cant stop completely (and then they did, on schedule). Now its they can never raise rates.



Not saying theyre going to 4% soon, but 1.5% isnt out of reach for either economy in 12-18 months.
Quoting NewtonsCash
Not due until 2017 tho', my call , no rate rise either side of the pond either in 2015 or 2016 (economies are way too weak & the powers that be have spent since 2008 blowing huge bubbles in Stocks, Bonds, Property and they know even a .25% move up will burst the bubbles, not to mention the derivatives that will cut in if rates go up

So, no, rates will stay at 0 or minus forever, rising stocks , bonds and property are now an entitlement, look at China
Wished you heard it from horse's mouth
Yellen's testimony in Senate.She clearly stated 2015 will start normalizing rates
She after all is the head of Feds and when she says something this magnitude I am sure it was not accidental.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
lol, I wish I had time to go into the outback and listen to the horses mouth
Quoting Davit
Wished you heard it from horse's mouth
Yellen's testimony in Senate.She clearly stated 2015 will start normalizing rates
She after all is the head of Feds and when she says something this magnitude I am sure it was not accidental.
She didn't actually say that - there were lots of caveats and if's and buts so it wasn't a definite.
Free speech is an oxymoron
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Rising bond yields will force them to raise interest rates... However the rate increase will be very slow....
Quoting Davit
Wished you heard it from horse's mouth
Yellen's testimony in Senate.She clearly stated 2015 will start normalizing rates
She after all is the head of Feds and when she says something this magnitude I am sure it was not accidental.
Well, we had Bernanke saying it was jobs related, then Yellen saying it was down to this indicator, then that indicator, when the moments came they moved the goalposts and reneged on previous "commitments", QE has not stopped it carried on with the bonds being shopped from Belgium, its all an illusion to make us believe all is well and keep spending, UK's public debt has gone from £565B when Osbourne took over in 2010 to over £1.5T today (thats triple) , we can believe the story or not , thats our choice, however it seems a little cruel to enslave an entire generation selling them on "it's different this time" and "property, stocks and bonds only ever go up in value" stories

Look at Japan 1989 to now

Look at Greece who's debt to GDP ratio is way better than ours (if you include the conveniently left out unpaid for Gov commitments, pensions etc)

Look at Argentina , remember "as rich as an Argentine"

UK can now never raise rates willingly, however they will be forced to raise them un-willingly as the world wakes up to Osbourne and Carneys Ponzi scheme, check out prime London residential value drop since last Autumn -20% .......

It's never different this time
Quoting NewtonsCash
Well, we had Bernanke saying it was jobs related, then Yellen saying it was down to this indicator, then that indicator, when the moments came they moved the goalposts and reneged on previous "commitments", QE has not stopped it carried on with the bonds being shopped from Belgium, its all an illusion to make us believe all is well and keep spending, UK's public debt has gone from £565B when Osbourne took over in 2010 to over £1.5T today (thats triple) , we can believe the story or not , thats our choice, however it seems a little cruel to enslave...
totally agree Newton, we are all in for a wake up call soon.
Quoting newtonscash
well, we had bernanke saying it was jobs related, then yellen saying it was down to this indicator, then that indicator, when the moments came they moved the goalposts and reneged on previous "commitments", qe has not stopped it carried on with the bonds being shopped from belgium, its all an illusion to make us believe all is well and keep spending, uk's public debt has gone from £565b when osbourne took over in 2010 to over £1.5t today (thats triple) , we can believe the story or not , thats our choice, however it seems a little cruel to enslave...
let them role the dice
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
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