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  • Is Alexis Tsipras Brilliant or Just Lucky?

    From bloombergview.com

    Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s charismatic prime minister, has shown a fascinating talent for political maneuvering. When an impressive electoral victory carried him to office in January, he inherited a horrid economic and financial situation. He initially struggled to gain control, and relations with creditors collapsed in an acrimonious mess. But as Greece teetered on the edge of an economic and institutional abyss, he repeatedly caught everyone off guard by taking charge of a narrative that was slipping away both at home and abroad. Now, he may be able to deliver what many (including me) thought improbable: a policy ... (full story)

He have talents - can't deny it. But he lacks habit and vision to deal with his Europe partners. The "barking" negotiation strategy is not welcomed.

And Greece will basically accept almost three same terms as discussed 3 months ago. So what the bank holiday and the referendum really achieved?
The Greek economy went back into recession this year due to all his parties schnanegans. He hasn't accomplished anything in my opinion except that they now need more money. Congratulations to him lol
Imo he saw this weekend was going to be the last straw and backed down as he didn't want to be the one responsible for a Grexit. I don't see brilliance in this I just see someone who's all talk but unable to walk the walk.
The euro will strengthened for some time and later drop back down again......it may even go to 0.8000 which is a danger zone for economy and trading...
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.165.203
he has accomplished one important thing for me, he has shown what Germany is about, and has changed my opinion on EZ, my vote will be out if we get the chance in 2017 UK referendum.
Well, tsipras fold and he fear for the responsibility soo bad. In anyway, i would say he's a coward that run away at the last second. First of all, with all bluffing chicken games and the referendum has made it clear he's untrustable. I would say if it's deal then the money will be lost eventually and there will be 4th bailout till 1000th bailout in the future. It's a follish decsion to the core.
Greece holds a referendum, its people vote more than 60% on a course of action based upon the recommendation of their Prime Minister and then 3 days later he goes completely in the opposite direction without asking them and agrees on terms worse than the ones they rejected. Astonishingly the people agree with him after massive celebrations on the streets as if they won the World Cup. Which proves they had no idea what they're voting for.

If this phony Che Guevara had real principles he would resign but he is enjoying the limelight too much.
IMO I think he has been brilliant, now it wont be him that will be responsible for a Grexit, it wont be the creditors responsible for a Grexit.
Just wait and watch it will be the Greek people responsible, followed very shortly after by the Portugese, Spanish Irish and French people. So long EU.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.81.49
The euro you would think would open higher monday ....
Reality Check..
The first 6 months of Syriza/ Tsipras "achievements".

1. Criminally misleading the Greek people about what was ever realistically achievable in terms of renegotiating the 2012 terms.
2. Defaulted on his obligations under previously agreed (2012) bailout terms. thereby freezing the feeding of further payments under this bailout for the last 6 months and effectively ending this lifeline bailout program.
3. Through the uncertainty created by his policies, effectively destroyed all economic progress made in last 3 thee years, and has driven the Greece economy into a third recession.
4. Conducted his country s "renegotiations" in such a naive, unproductive, confrontational and offensive style thats lost the trust and goodwill of 60 % of his EZ neighbours and brought his whole nation into disrepute.
5. Defaulted on and lost the goodwill and confidence of IMF
6. Destroyed domestic confidence in the national banking system, introduced capital controls, effectively frozen the banking system and consequently destroyed many small Greek businesses, and brought serious hardship to the most vulnerable in his society.

This is success? Brilliance? Good Luck?
Id hate to see what they might regard as failure.
And unfortunately we may yet..
Quoting cliffedwards
This is success?
Id hate to see what they might regard as failure.
And unfortunately we may yet..
I agree, Tsipras's approach was a failure, the only thing he achieved is to stay in power but he destroyed the economy doing it.
he is transgender or a kind of chicken
Thanks @bilv..

But as a PS may I admit, that El-Erians analysis is spot on about ONE achievement....
that certainly looked impossible 6 months ago..
Syriza/Tspiras, has by inducing this economic chaos, united the people into accepting what is essentially a resumption of acceptance of the ditched 2012 terms.
Delivery of course is a whole other story.
Quoting cliffedwards
Reality Check..
The first 6 months of Syriza/ Tsipras "achievements".

1. Criminally misleading the Greek people about what was ever realistically achievable in terms of renegotiating the 2012 terms.
2. Defaulted on his obligations under previously agreed (2012) bailout terms. thereby freezing the feeding of further payments under this bailout for the last 6 months and effectively ending this lifeline bailout program.
3. Through the uncertainty created by his policies, effectively destroyed all economic progress made in last 3 thee years,...
As you pointed out in six months after being elected for change, he could only bash his head against a brick wall, while aileanating the german and french taxpayers who had been sold the debt by their banks knowing it was toxic, the loans there self only given to the greek banks yet to be paid back by the greeks not their banks.

I may well be wrong but it appears like the normal financial money go round bank to bank till they can offload the debt to the people.
What did he achieve for greek people? Not much I'd say.
However what did he achieve for himself? Quite a bit.
@gandolf13

You make valid points.
However its important to understand that EVERYBODY knew they were toxic.. They were taken on by the ESM BECAUSE they were toxic, the Greeks were BUST. And the other members of the EZ felt it was not in their interests to have an EZ member state go bust.


But was it a straight transfer.. NO.
Unlike the Bank debts the Greeks owed, the combined sovereign creditworthiness of the ESM, allowed these same debts to be closed out and reissued to Greece at a fraction of the original interest terms. AND if you check youll find, that there WERE bank haircuts involved in that transfer from Banks to ESM..
Reads like a piece of cheer leading Tsipras propaganda...
is he running for re-election?...
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.163.39
To all commentators here on this thread are just a bunch of scarecrows waitin' to crumble...

You silly capitalists
Still toxic - freeloader
wonderful man with his own ideology!!!!
Immature guy and he plays with people's life.
Quoting michaelpelly
And Greece will basically accept almost three same terms as discussed 3 months ago. So what the bank holiday and the referendum really achieved?
Hi Nikolay,

I am also wondering. What I can say, is that we, i.e. 61.3% of Greeks who voted "no" at the referendum are fools.

Quoting barkie
Astonishingly the people agree with him after massive celebrations on the streets as if they won the World Cup. Which proves they had no idea what they're voting for.
Barkie,

what you are saying gives me the certainty that you, who are out of Greece, are receiving the wrong information. There has been no celebration. On the contrary, there was a rather massive demonstration outside the Greek parliament last night, which was mainly attended by Communist Party followers and ex-Syriza -i.e., until yesterday- followers (yes, the Communist Party is separate from Syriza for those who think that Syriza people are "commies") and was in favour of no deal with the creditors, under the known terms.

Two more bits:
- Just watched on TV a brief Schäuble interview. It is the first time I see him laughing, if this means anything.
- EZ people must be aware that, supposedly at least, we are heading for a new arrangement between Greece and the EZ countries. The IMF will be out of that arrangement, something that tells me that the EZ will undertake the whole Greek debt burden. EZ citizens should be aware of that and not blame Greece but their own politicians.
Quoting Luther
I'm no fan of Tsipras or Varoufakis, but your argument points are weak.

First, about the goodwill of the IMF. Seriously? The IMF is the last creditor you want in your country. They're worse than loan sharks. They will liquidate your assets faster under draconian rules and conditions than any other lending body. Ask any South American who lived through the IMF in the 70's how much goodwill they have. Once they're in, all anyone wants to do is get them out.

At any cost.

Your point about Tsipras misleading the people about what he could...
Very well put!
well, i see him as poker player and he went ALL IN !!!with big risk to lose ! lot of lives and peeps could die suffer cus of his blind aggressive behavior with creditors , soo nop he isnt talnt nor lucky, he is an example of how a country can go soofast into deep dark valley when its prime minster leader isn't good to be in any official chairman!!
Quoting Luther
The IMF is the last creditor you want in your country. They're worse than loan sharks. They will liquidate your assets faster under draconian rules and conditions than any other lending body. Ask any South American who lived through the IMF in the 70's how much goodwill they have. Once they're in, all anyone wants to do is get them out.

At any cost.
Pretty accurate assesment of the US financial arm @ least a loan shark will not kill you to get their money....

If tsipras is as good a politician as they say he is with serious roots in communist side (his partner) then, this whole drawn out drama makes sense........

cut off funding & back your country, it's people & politicians into a corner where they have no choice but to pass legislation, that given any other time would have been blocked & buried in mountains of red tape.

Lets face it if they actually collected their taxes the greek govt wouldn't have been in anywhere near as much trouble in 2010, so IF these legislations are actually enforced properly if will help the greek people immensely, not just the wealthy...
scumbags....

if this was what he was after then kudos......'cos you can't fix a broken system if people keep stopping you.........all because a few scumbags like their current status quo...
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.98.27
IMO,it's extend and delay.QE or massive money printing in the Eurozone will be on the rise to try to create increasing inflation according to David Stockman:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...kicks-the-can/
Quoting dionyssus
......
Barkie,

what you are saying gives me the certainty that you, who are out of Greece, are receiving the wrong information. There has been no celebration. On the contrary, there was a rather massive demonstration outside the Greek parliament last night, which was mainly attended by Communist Party followers and ex-Syriza -i.e., until yesterday- followers (yes, the Communist Party is separate from Syriza for those who think that Syriza people are "commies") and was in favour of no deal with the creditors, under the known terms.
.......
I'm referring tot the celebrations after the first results from the polls came through last Sunday that indicated that the 'no' vote would win. I actually feel sad for those (then happy ) people, they were of course completely misled by their government and believed they had fought for their future and that a no-vote would strengthen the government's position in the negotiations. Four days later in Brussels he does a 180 and indicates to settle on terms even worse than he recommended the Greek people to reject and doesn't even bother to bring a proposal !

Dump that muppet default on your debt and leave the Euro and you will see everything will be fine in the end.
@Luther

I made six points.
In your response youve refuted one.. and excused or not addressed the other 5.

1. I suggested that Syrizas Tspirats was politically disingenuous in over promising and misleading the Greek electorate.
Youve excused them suggesting they didn't understand.

2. I suggested that their default of 2012 agreement..thereby causing the current domino effect, the ending of that bailout and creating the current crisis has been hugely counterproductive.
Youve not addressed this directly.

3. I suggested their flawed negotiation strategy has effectively plunged Greece into a 3rd recession and undone most of what had been achieved in the hard won austerity of the 3 years.
Youve excused that incompetence by suggesting Im making fun of them
Ive NOT.. there is no fun or cheap points to be made in this tragedy.

4. I suggested that the Tspiras/Syriza negotiation STYLE has been seriously detrimental to the Greek interests.
Youve excused that by suggesting that they were naive.

5. I suggested that loosing the goodwill of the IMF was counterproductive.
On this you make fair points. They are not the friendliest people in town
But I still contend that pissing off Lagarde unnecessarily was a negotiating mistake.


6. I suggested that Tsipras/Syriza are responsible for collapsing of the banking system.
You've suggested this was a preordained conspiracy authored by Boogey Man Schäuble?
The explanation is much less dramatic. Fact is that Greeks with money in the system.. decided that Tsipras/Syriza were making a b***s of it AND have been taking billions out every month since they came to power.and at a faster and faster rate since January 2015.

The "tipping point"..you refer to? As a matter of FACT, the 2012 ESM bailout gave Greece unbelievably soft terms. Interest rates as low as 0.5%? No major repayments until 2023? and the final payments extended over 30 years.(The IMF part was at 3%.) and was accompanied by a Debt Sustainability study which was to be renegotiable based on economic recovery.

Your suggestion that my points are "Weak" I can live with. LoL

However the implication that from your happily remote location in Japan, (profile data) you appear to suggest that the 330 million other members of the EZ should give Greece money, guaranteed by THEIR savings, THEIR pensions, THEIR family's futures, without conditions that require that the Greek people get their act together, start to live within their means and reform their endemically corrupt society is less acceptable.
Quoting barkie
Dump that muppet default on your debt and leave the Euro and you will see everything will be fine in the end.
You know my position.
  • Post #30
  • Quote
  • Edited at 2:18pm Jul 11, 2015 2:02pm | Edited at 2:18pm
BEST and perhaps only good news.. is a report (needs confirmation) that investment banking giant Goldman Sachs could face legal action for its role in helping Greece initially enter the euro in 2001. One of the company's former bankers has written to the Greek government to advise that it could sue for hundreds of millions of dollars, according to the Independent.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...internalSearch

To heck with 00s of millions.. make it at least 5 yards!!!

BRING IT ON!!!

NOW THATS SOMETHING EVERYBODY CAN AGREE TO CELEBRATE.
Why its not been vigorously pursued by the EZ rather than the Greek government, has been beyond my comprehension for years. And if not a legal case then a regulatory enquiry with a complete regulatory ban on GS operations in the EZ for 10 years for collusion to undermine and destabilise the Euro monetary system.
Theres GOT to be a way to nail those ********.
It is important to understand how dire situation is with Greek banks running out of money not making a deal is basically going back to Drachma.
Studies show transition period of currency change is chaotic,disruptive,damaging and may take 3years to sort out.That's very bleak scenario VS trying to get the best deal possible.
We have not been in boardrooms and have zero understanding, insights, details of proposals hence to say Tsipras sold out is idiotic.Ask yourself would you cut your hand to free yourself or allow yourself to die.
He I am sure probably got best deal possible under the circumstances.
We still don't know the details and may even cover debt forgiveness in near future.
I think Prime Minister Tsipras is BOTH. He is both extremely brilliant and lucky.

He just basically showed both parties, the Greek people and the creditors the worst scenario if neither of them co-operates to work together to solve this mess. He called the Referendum to show the international creditors (a.k.a loan sharks) and the rest of the EU bullies what happens when the Greek people are pushed too far but he also shows the Greek parliament and the people what they will be facing when their economy truly collapses.

So now that both parties see what they will face and lose if they don't go closer to meet the other party in the middle, they at least are willing to come back to the table albeit grudgingly to give this one last proposal a chance.

Prime Minister Tsipras is brilliant because he knows where EXACTLY the problem is where it's stuck and has the courage to implement what's needed to move it along. He's also lucky because this is the first time that he's pulled this stunt that took everybody by surprise and that was enough to push the process along.

BUT his job is FAR from done. He will have to seize this opportunity and ride this momentum when both parties, the Greek people and the creditors and EU are at least giving him the benefit of the doubt to REALLY push through on the proposals to show some REAL positive results to both the Greek people AND the creditors and EU.

He won't be able to pull this same stunt again and he won't be so lucky next time. And his stake is LOT higher too. If he fails, both the Greek people and EU and all the creditors are going to be more angry with him than ever. And next time, there won't be a Referendum; it would be a REAL Greek exit from EU.

I wish Prime Minister Tsipras all the best luck in this universe for him to succeed.
Quoting Davit
It is important to understand how dire situation is with Greek banks running out of money not making a deal is basically going back to Drachma.
Studies show transition period of currency change is chaotic,disruptive,damaging and may take 3years to sort out.That's very bleak scenario VS trying to get the best deal possible.
We have not been in boardrooms and have zero understanding, insights, details of proposals hence to say Tsipras sold out is idiotic.Ask yourself would you cut your hand to free yourself or allow yourself to die.
He I am sure...
They will have NO choice but to include some debt forgiveness there; it's just the practical thing to do. Even the IMF (the biggest loan shark ever) has already said the debt that Greece is carrying has to be sustainable. Nothing is achieved when beating on a dying horse.
Quoting billv
I agree, Tsipras's approach was a failure, the only thing he achieved is to stay in power but he destroyed the economy doing it.
Yes but no one else did, is or will do better.
Quoting Forexia
Yes but no one else did, is or will do better.
If the Greeks don't have a leader who can perform well
then Berlin can appoint one
Quoting billv
If the Greeks don't have a leader who can perform well
then Berlin can appoint one
Well now Greece does so there is no need for Berlin to appoint one and Berlin can't anyway.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.188.251
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  • Posted: Jul 11, 2015 1:40am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 36  /  Views: 5,901