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  • What Will Trigger The Next Leg Of EUR Decline? - Morgan Stanley

    From efxnews.com

    The EUR/USD rebound after the March FOMC proved limited and short-lived, highlighting the major underlying bearish trend, notes Morgan Stanley. "EUR weakness has been driven by several factors, such as the ECB’s QE operations and the growing use of EUR as a global funding currency, both for portfolio and business investment," MS adds. While these EUR-bearish factors are set to continue, a question that is now being asked by MS clients is what will be the trigger for the next leg of the EUR decline? "We believe the answer lies with the major global risk factors – the most important for EUR being the developments in ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Apr 2, 2015 11:26pm Apr 2, 2015 11:26pm
I would believe this certainty of the prediction only if I see the multi billion short position in the Morgan Stanley books.

Majors started to ranging against dollar - and could be no next down leg for all we know. Swings usually reverse with no big sign from Morgan or Goldman Sucks posting "Here the reversal is NOW" :-)
  • #2
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  • Apr 3, 2015 12:09am Apr 3, 2015 12:09am
I think this Greece argument is weak. Yes bad Greece news could lead to selling, but a Grexit itself is pretty unlikely. If there's no clear weak point in the Eurozone or strength in the Euro's pair currency, it could range for a while, like the JPY did after the first leg of QE.
  • #3
  • Quote
  • Apr 3, 2015 3:12am Apr 3, 2015 3:12am
MS's profit relies on clients transaction or position appreciation, therefore their job is not to predict direction correctly but to stir up the expected volatility.

So never trust them on such comments.
  • #4
  • Quote
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:06am Apr 3, 2015 6:06am
[quote=Darkforce;8182920]MS's profit relies on clients transaction or position appreciation, therefore their job is not to predict direction correctly but to stir up the expected volatility.

I've heard that before, but I think they benefit much more from being right. If they're right, they build a reputation of being an expert and attracts more clients. So I do believe they try to be right.
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  • Posted: Apr 2, 2015 11:19pm
  • Submitted by:
     eFx Newz
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 4  /  Views: 2,771