Key Fundamental Factors this Week (3/2 - 3/6)

Keep in mind that : any outlook or idea will change just if the FED mentions that there is no rate rise this year ,you can just imagine how market with punish the USD ,be safe.

I can see that in the USD's recent tentative price action. The market is pricing in some doubts about the ability to raise rates as planned. So if this doubt materializes, USD should slide. On the other hand, the market is kind of waiting for more confirmation so it can price in further USD strength. It is still bullish I believe, but we could be past that nice middle chunk of USD's bull run in the past year.

- Fan

Fundamental considerations are always clumsy and in the way of rational thought and action. How can anyone really deal with subjective valuations based on uncertain outcomes still in the future other than via reactionary trading? Of course the problem with objective analysis on the other hand is the battered nature of the Euro so much so there appears to be a clear fear of the known trend and folks would have been happier had there been a remarkable pullback before now- but alas no such luck. Safest analytical approach has to depend on cycle theory (i.e. wave theory relying on the chaology of fractal geometry and its IFS formalism for a rational take - but that is not trivial at all). For instance applying such one reads stuff like 0.8 and that is below parity and unspeakable.

BTW it does seem like all sellers of the Euro hedged Gold (or something or rather) or how do you explain the sweet divergence between the two sustained since the both started their falls. Gold of course has a bit of upside to do - not much beyond the 1230 handle it seems and then it should fall - will that rouse some retrace in the Euro? Well I like that idea better that a straight drop to 0.8 (annoying anyway its been sold so hard).

The Crow (-_-)

PS: It is safer to bet on the USD rising until mid year (I think regardless of the financial press)