How the Rising Dollar Could Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis

It will not .
Long US real estate
Long stocks
Long bonds
Short vix
Short silver and gold
Long usd

this only small small part of the overall picture that will wipe all the gains it has made.

I think the equation is simpler.

The US believes that it has created long, fruitful jobs each month as reported in the Job reports, yet behind the surface most of the newly created jobs are Casual, Part time positions and we are in the holiday season so would it be any real wonder when most of those jobs will finish up.

Those jobs do not create comfort in ones ability to firstly borrow money and secondly have the time to pay it back without further financial hardship. The drop in Oil prices might look great for a consumer, but looking at Australia as an example of failing commodity prices and high currency value you have an industry that is not making a profit. All those oil and gas projects then get sidelined and you consume more through import, further increasing the debt (import consumption) vs credit (export Production).

The debt on the US books and the interest allocation alone is staggering, some estimate of 25 billion per month in interest alone, and that is at 0.25%. The Fed saying interest rates will rise is the Feds way of rubbing its hands together and all Americans, who are still feeling the squeeze from the GFC thanks in large to the banks getting the bail out, not poor Ma and Pa who are struggling to work in their Casual positions, will feel it. Interest rates cannot rise without the bubble being burst and it is the bubble that, for the past 5 years, the US government and the Fed have fought to keep inflated.

Lets face it, there are far simpler reasons for why there will likely be another crash coming soon. The end of the day, consumption and production, debt and credit go hand in hand and few have really learnt the lessons. The Fed, which is a Private Bank, bankrupted the country a long time ago.

Enjoy that high US dollar and low interest rate credit availability as it will only feed the imported consumption without really creating any strong production and savings values, those values that saw the US as a industrial powerhouse many many decades ago.

Yes .. in 2030 + -
We are the beginning of the 18 year cycle (about 2 years into it)

Agreed. No one listens though. I'd better listen to someone good at the market than an economist. Hyun Song Shin, the economist is a moron.

You're quite right. I remember an article published on zerohedge by Tyler Durden about the September job numbers:
"Hiring Grandparents Only": 230K September Jobs Added In 55-69 Age Group; 10K Lost In Prime, 25-54 Group.

Worth thinking about and will probably contribute to the time bomb!

hmm well,,, at others hand i like strong dollar,, because when i withdraw my money into my local currency i get high exchange rate

but i think usd already high enough against euro or jpy.
and i think i need rescue the world from explotion of strong dollar,,,
like superman, hahaa

but maybe later,, just need waiting january, because mister Draghi promise something, and if he keep that promise, euro can more low again

Actually we wouldn't have this new "problem" with a strong US dollar if we didn't have a Federal reserve whose main job has been NOT for currency stabilization, but to fulfill a completely "Political" mandate of "Full Employment" . No other country's Bank has such a "Dual Mandate".

A stronger US dollar would interfere with the Fed's unchecked "Money Printing". And low oil prices interfere with the aims of terrorist countries like Russia and Iran who depend solely on oil revenues to fund their aims. Low oil prices are better for many more people.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but are you basing this on anything measurable? I think PMI's are by far the best indicator of underlying strength/weakness in the labor market - and PMI's are up right across the board lately.

i think US economy growing, but FED should be "just do it" if they really want to do..
many month rate hike issue, pop up to market, but they do nothing.
and Japan use that moment to declare what they called currency war by kill JPY, then followed by China, then whole world stole FED moment.
what happen now, USD "overvalue" by rate hike issue.
and still they not or not yet do that, and Draghi also still not or not yet detonating QE.

personally i think.. aunty Yellen wrong strategy, because since she become FED's chairman, what she do only increasing dollar value, not like what many media predict, she gonna more to dovish for usd.

now i think,, even beginner gonna think twice to selling usd, at this condition

Thats 'cos old folk vote , the young ?

stupid

There's something fishy going on when USD rises and Silver and Gold don't fall, more manipulation in the precious metals market?

Every thought that there is more paper trading on gold and silver than actual gold and silver to cover it.
Its not so precious no more.

I do not think there is anything fishy at all and why should anyone want to manipulate anything (not to mention no one can manipulate the commodities or currency markets, their scale is just out of this world for that kind of thing on any significant scale - no one has that kind of money on any given day). The facts are that its a market and for any period the relationship between any two instruments can change. Gold and Silver are in recovery north and we know that it is justified from reading the charts and have been saying so all this while. I expect currencies and other risk to follow suit at some point. Its a market and as such it is not explained by a single view all of the time - if it were - we (traders) would be in billions per second. You got to accept that reality bro

The Crow (-_-)

The info in the job numbers. The reality of jobs going to the elderly, the jobs being casual, low paying positions.

If the jobs were 50-60% production based jobs (steel factorys, textiles, resource) both blue collar, white collar and professional services (engineers, Geologists) something that pointed to more growth in the production and exportable sectors then perhaps then you could pay attention to it, but its not. Its government jobs and retail. Retail for the holiday season and Government jobs which don't add value to the economy.

The trade deficit and overall debt growing, the interest on that debt growing and interest rates effectively frozen. What would be the effects on debt repayments with a rise by 1%?

I agree, PMI has improved, but there are a large number of reports that come out which miss the mark and have revised figures. I certainly don't intend to offend, I can see Australia in a dire position if we don't act soon but in a world of devaluation of currency's as governments push to avoid recession and deflation, Australia stands little chance against the titans.