EURUSD Weekly Outlook: Edging Towards A Trend Reversal-Drivers, Ramifications, How To Profit

So if ECB policy moves are priced in, what’s left to drive EURUSD lower? Ready for a bounce?

a few things, here are just some of them:

--temptation to test lower support levels noted in the article

--ECB may surprise markets with 'shock and awe' approach rather than the expected incremental cuts of rates that are already near zero, and announce a QE-type sovereign bond purchase program. That would send message to markets that ECB is serious about lowering the EUR and fighting deflation. EU has reputation for doing "too little too late" and big surprise ultra easing would help break that reputation and stop speculation on EUR bounce. In light of Fed dovishness, a more radical easing needed by ECB if it is serious about stimulus and lower EUR.

--If more nationalist parties make bigger than expected gains in EU parliamentary elections, could rock confidence in EU's ability to make needed political integration

Wait, so now lower rates for the USD are BEARISH for the pair? Only if ECB determined to push their rates lower still, right?

yes. lower rates are bearish for a currency, but if (and that's the question) ECB determined to have lower rates than USD, then lower USD rates mean even more EUR weakness. Ironically, USD could be rising at a time when its rates are falling (if EUR rates fall even more). In forex, as in life, all is relative

We're listening about that "trend reversal - for sure" since January.

really. that's why I spent so much of my book writing about risk management and the importance of only taking trades where risk/reward is better than 2:1, most of us need to be able to profit while being wrong on majority of trades

EUR/USD still bearish and will drop down minimum 3550. Its my opinion, let's see.

Depends what timeframe you look at. Its still bullish on higher ones, targetting 1.43.

Apparently it's been a trend continuation set up since the friggin' summit rally, fade it from 1.2 lol....

Not you Cliff,

But just sayin',