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  • EURUSD Weekly Outlook: Is Recent Price Action Showing Weakness Or Resilience?

    From fxempire.com

    The following is a partial summary of the conclusions from the fxempire.com weekly analysts’ meeting in which we cover outlooks for the major pairs for the coming week and beyond. Summary Technical outlook: Neutral medium term per weekly charts. Bearish near term on daily charts, as the pair looks set to test strong support around 1.365. The controlled nature of the pullback, with pauses at each support level on weekly charts despite coming easing, suggests the resilience of a technical pullback rather than the start of a longer term reversal. See below for details on why. Fundamental outlook short term mildly ... (full story)

  •  Guest
  • | IP X.XX.130.120
How can ECB expect to push banks to lend when they need to be conservative ahead of stress tests? More lowering of standards for those tests coming?
So with rates steady and ECB moves getting priced in as EURUSD falls, is there much downside left?
Even if the latest pullback is over, does that mean the EURUSD is more likely to bounce, or just continue flat?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.15.190
Ft.com has had big 3 part series on how the EU and Euro were saved. Crisis really over, or is this one of those optimistic headlines that tend to come just before all goes to hell?
Quoting iritru
So with rates steady and ECB moves getting priced in as EURUSD falls, is there much downside left?
On the economic calendar, not much. Potential for further downside moves comes from:
chance of greater than expected ECB easing speculation
geopolitical fears from China or Russia tensions - neither likely to do much damage in long run but with markets high these might be the excuse to take some profits

those are the likely near term issues
longer term, nothing fixed in the EU, keep that in mind. Btw Ft.com has a great 3 part series out on how the EU and EUR were saved - funny thing is, the things they say saved it really haven't happened yet!

see my coming weekly lessons and market movers post for more on that - should have it up in coming hours
Quoting Yali Lev
Even if the latest pullback is over, does that mean the EURUSD is more likely to bounce, or just continue flat?
already testing decent support, so unless get speculation of bigger easing or a convincing risk off event, bias appears flat to higher over the coming week
Always use two 90% accurate indicators - the short/long ratio in FF and the "agitation" stance of the articles. If one do exactly the contrary - 90% winning rate...

Example - all retailers were hard shorting the euro and cable since July 2013 - and the trend was punching higher and higher. Big banks agitation - short stance suggestions.

Now - everyone is starting to believe euro will go to the sky...and FF ratios are in favor of longs...that makes me wonder...:-)
Quoting michaelpelly
...
So true, mate
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.195.105
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/europaeische-zentralbank-plant-massnahmen-gegen-stockende-kreditvergabe-a-970023.html
it is showing the head and shoulder.. ? 1h chart.
From my thinking EUR/USD still bearish and will move down to 3580-3600 before june. May be I am wrong but I will be with my opinion. Let see....
Quoting Guest
How can ECB expect to push banks to lend when they need to be conservative ahead of stress tests? More lowering of standards for those tests coming?
excellent question - so far they've opted for quietly lowering standards.

My guess: banks with borderline capitalization will focus on passing tests, and if hit with negative deposit rates - ie getting charged by ECB for holding money, then banks in a given nation will all agree to pass on charge to customers - thus not risking losing customers
Quoting Guest
Ft.com has had big 3 part series on how the EU and Euro were saved. Crisis really over, or is this one of those optimistic headlines that tend to come just before all goes to hell?
LOL, not only is crisis not over, the reasons FT.com cited for market calm haven't even happened! I've a whole discussion on that here:

http://www.fxempire.com/news/special-feature/top-lessons-market-movers-and-questions-for-the-coming-week/
Quoting michaelpelly
Always use two 90% accurate indicators - the short/long ratio in FF and the "agitation" stance of the articles. If one do exactly the contrary - 90% winning rate...

Example - all retailers were hard shorting the euro and cable since July 2013 - and the trend was punching higher and higher. Big banks agitation - short stance suggestions.

Now - everyone is starting to believe euro will go to the sky...and FF ratios are in favor of longs...that makes me wonder...:-)
What do you mean by "big banks agitation"? curious, 'cause rest of comment was really good. Re: fading the FF sample traders, they do indeed reflect a common retail trader error I've seen repeatedly when I worked for different brokerages as chief analyst - they try to fade the trend rather than ride it - try to call reversals before getting confirmation. Classic mistakes.
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  • Posted: May 18, 2014 4:05am
  • Submitted by:
     Cliff Wachtel
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 14  /  Views: 4,198