Menu

  • Why EUR/USD Refuses To Fall? Look At This...- Deutsche Bank

    From efxnews.com

    EUR/USD resilience is the name of the game and these last couple of weeks are just a case in a point. ECB speakers tried to talk the singly currency down, EUR/USD inched higher. Very strong US data that bet all of the expectations, EUR/USD still on the rise. So, what is actually going on? Simply put it, cash flows still have the upper hand over macro fundamentals in driving EUR/USD. The latest proprietary flows data from Deutsche Bank released today solidifies this argument. "M&A flows in the United States turned sharply negative over the week, on account of a USD 15.7bn deal fixed between Euro zone and US. The ... (full story)

Essentially, there is no way a trader can go wrong if they long the eur/usd....
Quoting Schminner
Essentially, there is no way a trader can go wrong if they long the eur/usd....
Nothing goes up forever
I think ECB needs to turn up the printing presses in order to compete with the devaluing of the dollar
Quoting Schminner
Essentially, there is no way a trader can go wrong if they long the eur/usd....
Structural USD bulls, DB included, believe that flows will eventually follow fundaments and start to reverse course.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.203.155
Quoting Ipxx.xxx1202
I think ECB needs to turn up the printing presses in order to compete with the devaluing of the dollar
Dollar(renmimbi by extention), Pound and Yen you meant, right?

It will take a good deal of arm-twisting and back door promises for a couple months, and I can't see the ecb even getting started till e/u hits 1.42, but the results will blow a bunch of pre-conceived notions and a big portion of the profits that late entry/late exit traders thought they had. I've been expecting some kind of concrete action for 3 years, and I believe they may eventually quit proving me wrong.
If Fed hike its rate in middle of 2015, then, US $ may take control to run bull after Xmas. Too early for $ run. Too much debt with US. They have to pay debt to UK, China, German, Japan, etc.
Quoting Darkforce
Nothing goes up forever
so true , some people on the fx market for get that
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.7.235
Quoting PaulAmbrose
Structural USD bulls, DB included, believe that flows will eventually follow fundaments and start to reverse course.
by the time that happens, your account might be wiped out.
Quoting Guest
by the time that happens, your account might be wiped out.
This comment was made in response to someone who said "there is no way a trader can go wrong if they long the eur/usd"

You believe that? Go ahead and long it all you want then! LOL
These are the wankers calling for shorts all last week. Now is the time to look to sell the EURUSD if these muppets are shouting long,
Quoting PaulAmbrose
This comment was made in response to someone who said "there is no way a trader can go wrong if they long the eur/usd"

You believe that? Go ahead and long it all you want then! LOL
Considering the weekly PA and the monthly close above the major descending monthly TL, going long seems to be the logical course of action.

That is until "eventually" starts to kick in (whenever that may be).

Flying your flag whilst trading can be hazardous to your account.
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Mike Haran
These are the wankers calling for shorts all last week. Now is the time to look to sell the EURUSD if these muppets are shouting long,
Lol, ordinarily I would agree with you, but just can't see it at this point.
Come with me if you want to live....
The BS NFP and Unemployment Rate numbers will be the catalyst used for bringing the needed pullback/correction on GU & EU. When that pullback happens the bears will be convinced the "reversal" is at hand. My charts say... poor souls

Be careful folks and trade safe. Let the market tip it's hand before "anticipating" too much.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
Quoting Ill-b-back
Lol, ordinarily I would agree with you, but just can't see it at this point.
No me neither, But the 1st 2nd May has traditionally been a reversal period for the EURUSD, coupled with the crest of a very negative end of a 5 year cycle in stocks and the potential is there for a crash.

Ukraine is slowly but surely decending into a potential civil war which may have further ramifications for the rest of Europe. For the first time in ages there has been a reduction in debt margin, which means that the net flow of money is out of stocks, gold has mad a very strong reversal move to the upside and it alll looks like a risk on off is enveloping the markets. After a very stale period in which currencies have been very range bound, we might be on the edge of a sigma 6 type event.

Not a great fan of bollinger bands but they can be quite good at drawing the eye to a compression point often preceeded by a large move. Lots of folks on the forum told me they could see no reason for a crash as the Fed just just keep the print fest running. But its the one off chaotic events that lead to collapse. The affairs of man are fickle and prone to disaster, I think the point is going to be made very soon that however hard you try markets cannot be turned. You have to let the cull come, and with it everyone emerges stronger.
Quoting albchr
The BS NFP and Unemployment Rate numbers will be the catalyst used for bringing the needed pullback/correction on GU & EU. When that pullback happens the bears will be convinced the "reversal" is at hand. My charts say... poor souls

Be careful folks and trade safe. Let the market tip it's hand before "anticipating" too much.
Yes Sir, follow them money masters huh..
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Mike Haran
No me neither, But the 1st 2nd May has traditionally been a reversal period for the EURUSD, coupled with the crest of a very negative end of a 5 year cycle in stocks and the potential is there for a crash.

Ukraine is slowly but surely decending into a potential civil war which may have further ramifications for the rest of Europe. For the first time in ages there has been a reduction in debt margin, which means that the net flow of money is out of stocks, gold has mad a very strong reversal move to the upside and it alll looks like a risk on...
Yep, it's just that I guess I've got bullish analysis on stocks, EU and GU.
I'm reading also that USD heading for a 3 year bear cycle starting this year and I'm seeing it in GU/EU charts and PA.
"Someone" saved those 2 sinking ships last year and don't want to see all their hard work come undone.
My own projection analysis sees 1.45 this month. It's nothing more than an intersection of 2 TL's, a descending monthly cycle curve and ascending weekly curve so I am prob just seeing stars or something, who knows, but positionally, we've cleared the monthly TL and local weekly one and last weeks candle was bullish so with some dips along the way I can only be bullish.
Cheers Mike
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Ill-b-back
Yep, it's just that I guess I've got bullish analysis on stocks, EU and GU.
I'm reading also that USD heading for a 3 year bear cycle starting this year and I'm seeing it in GU/EU charts and PA..........
-------------------------> Nice One!
Everybody has an opinion.

Aside from all of them, does this not clearly look like a major player "Talking Head" talking up the EURUSD?

Remember, market moves are all about liquidity to build positions, and later running the price to profit on those positions. One way of obtaining liquidity is for the "Talking Heads" to turn the volume up and broadcast their bias creating message. That bias being in the direction that will create the liquidity for the robber banks to take the other side and build for the reverse profit making move they plan on.
Number to watch today is the ISM data release, I looked at the last 5 releases and they can often be trend changers, lots of crazy action around the release but once its out depending on the value its quite a good one.

Higher than expected look for a rise in stock, this will give us a really good indication of the future of this rally. If we print a stronger than expected number and no rally thats negative,

A miss on the number by .1-1 will result in a range or a reaction to the down side. As long as its over 51 then no rapid sell off.

Below 50 then expect a hard move down.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.106.154
if ISM report comes strong, then USD will be strong not STOCKS,.
Well last time it came in strong stocks rallied hard
Quoting Guest
if ISM report comes strong, then USD will be strong not STOCKS,.

well it came in high and stocks rallied whther it was on dollar strength or some other reason, the net effect is up
Quoting Ill-b-back
Yep, it's just that I guess I've got bullish analysis on stocks, EU and GU.
I'm reading also that USD heading for a 3 year bear cycle starting this year and I'm seeing it in GU/EU charts and PA.
"Someone" saved those 2 sinking ships last year and don't want to see all their hard work come undone.
My own projection analysis sees 1.45 this month. It's nothing more than an intersection of 2 TL's, a descending monthly cycle curve and ascending weekly curve so I am prob just seeing stars or something, who knows, but positionally, we've cleared the...

Looks like the negative cycle is kicking in now, it was 4 days out in time but the sell off is on the way, my question is now, is this the start of something bigger, some underlying deeper correction in the markets, the start of the down cycle that we can all make money out of.

I hope so I have a feeling this crash yet to unfold is the end of a cycle for us and the start of a new age for humanity. I hope I am right, it will be hard though the bleak stages of a crash for the people unaware will be brutal.
  • New Comment
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.9.174
Join FF
  • Story Stats
  • Posted: May 2, 2014 3:50pm
  • Submitted by:
     eFx Newz
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 23  /  Views: 8,403