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  • EURUSD Weekly Outlook: Short Term Up, Longer Term Down & Why

    From fxempire.com

    FX Traders’ weekly EURUSD fundamental & technical picture, this week’s market drivers that could change it, and what you must never forget about the EU and EUR The following is a partial summary of the conclusions from the fxempire.comweekly analysts‘ meeting in which we share thoughts about what’s driving major global asset markets. The focus here is on the EURUSD’s weekly outlook for forex traders, from both a fundamental and technical perspective. Key Points Short term technical picture, fundamental drivers, and entry/exit points Longer term bearish fundamentals you can’t afford to forget ECB ... (full story)

I just want to add the following to the section: So What Could Reverse The EURUSD Uptrend In The Near Term?

Neither the Fed nor ECB is expected to shock us with new policy shifts, so we don't see any sudden USD rate advantage.

The Ukraine situation clearly has potential to crank up fear if anyone believed the EU or US was ready to step up, (cue sounds of crickets chirping on a quiet night....). Ok, maybe some economic sanctions, at most, maybe.

The most likely obstacle is reversal in risk appetite that shows up on the leading global stock indexes too. We suspect the most likely catalyst will be the dawning realization that recent weak US data reflected some actual weakness. For details on why see our post: http://www.fxempire.com/news/special-feature/the-coming-week-in-global-markets-top-market-movers-lessons-ramifications/ - from last week.

The packed economic calendar discussed below is the other likely source of near term EURUSD drivers. It is more likely to be market moving if the top tier events have a clear bullish or bearish theme. Given the revived uptrend in both risk appetite and the EURUSD, mixed data favors a flat-to-higher move.
Question to readers: in last week's EURUSD post here http://www.fxempire.com/news/special-feature/eurusd-weekly-outlook-february-24th-trend-vs-resistance-which-wins-why/

I mentioned that Austria was considering forcing private lenders to take losses on Hypo bank. Has anyone heard anything further on that? Did quick search didn't find any updates
Anyone know how big a factor weather is likely to prove in explaining USD weakness?
Will weather still be an issue for the coming week’s US jobs reports?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.25.185
Watching Ukraine situation. Could heat up if in fact Ukraine can put up fight and West provides military assist
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.96.237
who in right state of mind can be bullish on EUR. there was no fundamental reasons in hell for that. i am not even mentioning the possibility of Putin shut off the natural gas supply to EU.
however HFT's ignite these bear squeezes no one can survive. now retail traders with no brain will be buying EUR like no tomorrow and we'll see one more leg up, while hedge funds and ETF's who artificially created this rally will sell their positions at big profits.
this BS shall be stopped! HFT's shall be prohibited!!! we all should unite and get back normal trading conditions.
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  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.14.89
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Mar 2, 2014 2:28am
  • Submitted by:
     Cliff Wachtel
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 6  /  Views: 4,364