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  • EUR/USD Forecast January 20-24

    From forexcrunch.com

    EUR/USD was on the back foot, as the euro gave a fight but eventually surrendered to the dollar. The ZEW Economic Sentiment, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs and the Spanish unemployment are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. Eurozone CPI was confirmed at low levels, raising the pressure on the ECB. The central bank aims to keep inflation below but close to 2% is not concerned about deflation, but is talking about it more than ever. In the US, inflation seems somewhat more solid, and with the help of OK retail sales as well as a ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Jan 19, 2014 5:27am Jan 19, 2014 5:27am
Yap! Looking forward to be in profit this week with my short position at 1.34855 since November. Still bearish on EURUSD.
  • #2
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  • Jan 19, 2014 6:52am Jan 19, 2014 6:52am
I am well known for not using stop losses. I hedge my trades if they ever go against me by 11 pips and deal with these rare hedges at a later time. So do be clear; I am no fan of using stop losses.

But what level of moron would let a trade go bad by 400 pips, and keep that trade alive for 2 months carrying accumulated swap costs?

Quoting Adyreal
Yap! Looking forward to be in profit this week with my short position at 1.34855 since November. Still bearish on EURUSD.
  • #3
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  • Jan 19, 2014 7:35am Jan 19, 2014 7:35am
The kind that trades longer term so 400 pips is a non-issue, he might even add when already minus on pips as he is well within his risk limit.

But i agree it works better when long and with currencies that give a decent swap return.

Still, you calling him moron without understanding what he did is uncalled for.
  • #4
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  • Jan 19, 2014 8:17am Jan 19, 2014 8:17am
Whatever the strategy and whatever the negative position of individual trades , as long as overall is in profit in the long run then you certainly know that you are on the right track of trading.
Leaders don't do different things, but they do the same things differently.
  • #5
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  • Jan 19, 2014 8:18am Jan 19, 2014 8:18am
Quoting Adyreal
Yap! Looking forward to be in profit this week with my short position at 1.34855 since November. Still bearish on EURUSD.
well I liked the fact that you believed in your trade. I am sure you will get out in profit. don't think about the muppets here who are short term jokers
  • #6
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  • Jan 19, 2014 8:22am Jan 19, 2014 8:22am
Quoting dancingphil
I am well known for not using stop losses. I hedge my trades if they ever go against me by 11 pips and deal with these rare hedges at a later time. So do be clear; I am no fan of using stop losses.

But what level of moron would let a trade go bad by 400 pips, and keep that trade alive for 2 months carrying accumulated swap costs?
now who is a moron? I think you are. He believed in his trade and he held on. swap costs and all. how much swap he must have paid 25-50 dollars on 1 lot. how much he would have lost had he cut at 1.3680-1.3800 territory I leave it to you. think 100 times before calling any one moroon
  • #7
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  • Jan 19, 2014 8:22am Jan 19, 2014 8:22am
Quoting alexandru987
The kind that trades longer term so 400 pips is a non-issue, he might even add when already minus on pips as he is well within his risk limit.

But i agree it works better when long and with currencies that give a decent swap return.



Still, you calling him moron without understanding what he did is uncalled for.
Some writers here are so rude, they should be banned right away.
  • #8
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  • Jan 19, 2014 8:54am Jan 19, 2014 8:54am
Ah, many other morons now come out to play.

Any trading system that could envisage a 400 pip move against your position is NOT a system that could ever return a reasonable profit.

It is not any kind of system at all. It could only allow for the tiniest lot sizing. So as to survive long enough through no less than 400 pips of loss, such tiny lot sizing makes any profit made months later a meaningless exercise.

Any trader averaging their trade entry loss down with further trades after being so wrong with the first trade is a complete idiot.

400 pips and the trade is still alive! Really? Then ALL of you morons.
  • #9
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  • Jan 19, 2014 10:05am Jan 19, 2014 10:05am
Quoting dancingphil
Any trading system that could envisage a 400 pip move against your position is NOT a system that could ever return a reasonable profit.
I can even have 1000 or more pips move against some of my positions and I'm still making constant and decent profits. I get nervous from time to time, that's for sure, but my type of trading seems to work fine for me and that's enough. Of course there's tons of different trading styles, but as long as one makes profits, the style's ok even if does not conform to conventional wisdom.
  • #10
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  • Jan 19, 2014 10:25am Jan 19, 2014 10:25am
  •  Trader#9741
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
That's what makes markets------Difference of opinions.
  • #11
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  • Jan 19, 2014 10:30am Jan 19, 2014 10:30am
Madness. Complete madness. Fwiw I've only discovered two ways of trading that work; one swing and one scalping, the latter will never work on retail platforms and both trading strategies rely on dynamic trailing stops. Consider it this way; you're pitching your trading strategy to successful and experienced backers. Risk/money management will be the most important issue they'll want to see under control. Look after the downside and the upside may take care of itself.


Quoting althar
I can even have 1000 or more pips move against some of my positions and I'm still making constant and decent profits. I get nervous from time to time, that's for sure, but my type of trading seems to work fine for me and that's enough. Of course there's tons of different trading styles, but as long as one makes profits, the style's ok even if does not conform to conventional wisdom.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #12
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  • Jan 19, 2014 11:44am Jan 19, 2014 11:44am
Can i think EUROUSD BULLISH?
  • #13
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  • Jan 19, 2014 12:24pm Jan 19, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting Spreadbetter
Madness. Complete madness.
As I wrote, everybody has his own experience and his own wisdom. And my experience is that, due to my economic knowledge, I'm able (or I think, I am able ) to predict only long term, say >5 year currency movements. Noise over that long period can easily be 2k, 3k or even more pips, so I had to develop a strategy which allows me to survive that kind of volatility. I kinda hedge most of my trades with opposite ones and, statistically, more than 99,5% of my trades are succesful. And I mean here both, basic and "hedge" trades.

It works fine for me, and I won't change the horse in the middle of the race, no matter how unconventional it looks
  • #14
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  • Jan 19, 2014 12:46pm Jan 19, 2014 12:46pm
99.5% of your trades are successful? You fund trades 2000 pips 'offside'? You talk too much. You're full of shit.


Quoting althar
As I wrote, everybody has his own experience and his own wisdom. And my experience is that, due to my economic knowledge, I'm able (or I think, I am able ) to predict only long term, say >5 year currency movements. Noise over that long period can easily be 2k, 3k or even more pips, so I had to develop a strategy which allows me to survive that kind of volatility. I kinda hedge most of my trades with opposite ones and, statistically, more than 99,5% of my trades are succesful.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #15
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  • Jan 19, 2014 1:23pm Jan 19, 2014 1:23pm
Aside from all polite comments above - I think that E/U actually topped-out for now and heading for 1.27 next 6 months.
  • #16
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  • Jan 19, 2014 1:25pm Jan 19, 2014 1:25pm
Quoting michaelpelly
Aside from all polite comments above - I think that E/U actually topped-out for now and heading for 1.27 next 6 months.

Good point !
  • #17
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  • Jan 19, 2014 1:43pm Jan 19, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting Spreadbetter
99.5% of your trades are successful?
Yep, it's the way you trade if you don't use stop losses. Lots of small succesful scalping trades and very few trades with a loss, which are, of course, much bigger. On average I make a little more than 4000 trades a year, of which on average about 20 are closed with loss.

And no, I can't sustain 2000 pip losing position as yet, but only 1000, maybe 1200 pips, and that's also the reason, why I have to close some trades with a loss. I'm still working on the technique, hoping to reach 2000 pips, which is my goal.

Quoting Spreadbetter
You're full of shit.
And we don't need that here. We're still in the same boat, trying to squeeze some bucks out of this, aren't we?

Good trading!
  • #18
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  • Jan 19, 2014 1:44pm Jan 19, 2014 1:44pm
Bring out your dead..

Not sure where that third world country reference has come from, I wouldn't even class Cyprus or Greece as third world countries under the umbrella of Europe, let alone England and London which was, the last time I checked, still the centre of global FX trading and arguably the second most important global financial hub.

As for the rest of your mumblings are you supporting someone who claims a 99.5% trade success and allows (and funds) trades that go 2000+ pips offside? If so you're obviously in good company as being full of shit.


Quoting Alexeii
Some people do really trade instead of commenting every single news-post in Forex Factory. almost 3000 posts - I don't know WTF u have to say so much. But people from third world countries are always like that.
PS - I can say that you are full of shit, not that guy !
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #19
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  • Jan 19, 2014 1:53pm Jan 19, 2014 1:53pm
When everyone say and think EU will go to the downside, lets long it this week I am on the long side because I know retail traders are shorting it
Learn to Trade is Important. Keep your bias & ego aside.
  • #20
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  • Jan 19, 2014 3:35pm Jan 19, 2014 3:35pm
Retail trade only accounts for approx 8% of the market ...


Quoting chaosbun
When everyone say and think EU will go to the downside, lets long it this week I am on the long side because I know retail traders are shorting it
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • #21
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  • Jan 19, 2014 5:34pm Jan 19, 2014 5:34pm
Quoting dancingphil
I am well known for not using stop losses. I hedge my trades if they ever go against me by 11 pips and deal with these rare hedges at a later time. So do be clear; I am no fan of using stop losses.

But what level of moron would let a trade go bad by 400 pips, and keep that trade alive for 2 months carrying accumulated swap costs?
Did you know that a hedge trade is a stop loss?
Gone to a better place
  • #22
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  • Jan 19, 2014 7:42pm Jan 19, 2014 7:42pm
Hmmm..
Looks like 1.33 coming into view
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #23
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  • Jan 19, 2014 9:57pm Jan 19, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hmmm..
Looks like 1.33 coming into view
US Banks now on holiday; hope the pivot 1.345 would be completed today.
  • #24
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  • Jan 20, 2014 4:59am Jan 20, 2014 4:59am
January 20, 2014 Monday London Market

Risk ON EUR/USD

Going Long at 1.3555
Take Profit Roll at 1.3620
Cut loss at 1.3532

Target: 1.4220

Looks like the channel is in play.
  • #25
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  • Jan 22, 2014 11:09am Jan 22, 2014 11:09am
  •  Trader#3791
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting Senyor
January 20, 2014 Monday London Market

Risk ON EUR/USD

Going Long at 1.3555
Take Profit Roll at 1.3620
Cut loss at 1.3532

Target: 1.4220

Looks like the channel is in play.
Have you heard there's a taper in progress? Might want to check your fundamentals angle
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