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  • A Must-See Chart On Why Big USD Gains Are Still Ahead - Deutsche Bank

    From efxnews.com

    Since the end of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s, the dollar has followed a long-term cycle with up- and down-trends lasting on average 7 years, notes Deutsche Bank. These USD cycles as illustrated in the chart below which is one of the main reasons behind DB's bullish USD view in 2014. "Even though the 2008 financial crisis extended the dollar downtrend that had started in 2002, especially against emerging market currencies, we remain comfortable with the long-term cycle view of the dollar," DB clarifies. "Indeed, the dollar trade-weighted index, however one measures it, appears to have toughed in 2011. So this ... (full story)

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Perhaps with Bernanke heading off to retirement land then the new regime will not make it their mission to weaken the USD.
One never knows.
But the thing that will turn the tide is that those who short the USD start to lose money. Until that occurs all the rest of analysis is pure crystal ball gazing.
I'll put my nuts on the line and say we see some small gains this coming week before the USD falls off a cliff in 2014.

Yeah I know, predictions, predictions, but it's written all over the GBPUSD chart

Love seeing the DOW collapse danger articles in here.

Simply Hilarious......

Way to go efxnews.com, by far my favourite contraindication news source.
Come with me if you want to live....
DB have agreed to hand over $1.9B in a mortgage lawsuit for misleading investors.

Now they are recommending 1.56 for GBPUSD by 2014 year end just as we are breaking north of a huge 4 year consolidation pattern stretching back to 2009.

Old habits die hard I guess

Lol.......
Come with me if you want to live....
..love to see big USD gains moving forward, especially against EUR..
Wow I'll-b-back :-). You were short frenzy couple weeks ago when cable has been violently bought-back after each drop. Now suddenly when breaking higher can't sustain (only spikes) you suddenly go sure-long for cable?! :-). Confusing at least :-).
Quoting michaelpelly
Wow I'll-b-back :-). You were short frenzy couple weeks ago when cable has been violently bought-back after each drop. Now suddenly when breaking higher can't sustain (only spikes) you suddenly go sure-long for cable?! :-). Confusing at least :-).
My reasoning in post 3 is pretty clear don't you think?
I know what you mean though lol...
We only got to the 23 fib and weekly dynamic range midline last time which I didn't expect. I was expecting the 38.2 fib at least.

Oh well...
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Ill-b-back
DB have agreed to hand over $1.9B in a mortgage lawsuit for misleading investors.

Now they are recommending 1.56 for GBPUSD by 2014 year end just as we are breaking north of a huge 4 year consolidation pattern stretching back to 2009.

Old habits die hard I guess

Lol.......

Huh breakout? Lol I disagree entirely "bro".... Looking at the weekly and monthly shows 1.67 from 2009 as a level to take out for cable to have "broken" out...in fact, I like cable to maybe spike up a bit more short term (maybe 1.64) but then it's Hammer Time (dancing* as I type) haha...I'm a USD bull.

Cheers lets see how we get on.
Quoting Ill-b-back
I'll put my nuts on the line and say we see some small gains this coming week before the USD falls off a cliff in 2014.

Yeah I know, predictions, predictions, but it's written all over the GBPUSD chart

Love seeing the DOW collapse danger articles in here.

Simply Hilarious......

Way to go efxnews.com, by far my favourite contraindication news source.
Quoting sliqdaddy91
Huh breakout? Lol I disagree entirely "bro".... Looking at the weekly and monthly shows 1.67 from 2009 as a level to take out for cable to have "broken" out...in fact, I like cable to maybe spike up a bit more short term (maybe 1.64) but then it's Hammer Time (dancing* as I type) haha...I'm a USD bull.

Cheers lets see how we get on.
Yeah I'm sure we'll see a nice surge in USD, but how long do you think it's gonna last?

From what I can see on my charts, we're most likely on the precipice of a full risk-on environment. If I were a betting man, I'd be selling the USD in Q1 2014, but I'm not... I just look at where Mr. Market wants to go and I follow along.

One thing I never do is take any advice from a bank.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting sliqdaddy91
Huh breakout? Lol I disagree entirely "bro".... Looking at the weekly and monthly shows 1.67 from 2009 as a level to take out for cable to have "broken" out...in fact, I like cable to maybe spike up a bit more short term (maybe 1.64) but then it's Hammer Time (dancing* as I type) haha...I'm a USD bull.

Cheers lets see how we get on.
What makes you think I'm your bro?
I think we might struggle to get along.

$bull huh?

Surging equities might take care of that...?
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting sliqdaddy91
Huh breakout? Lol I disagree entirely "bro".... Looking at the weekly and monthly shows 1.67 from 2009 as a level to take out for cable to have "broken" out...in fact, I like cable to maybe spike up a bit more short term (maybe 1.64) but then it's Hammer Time (dancing* as I type) haha...I'm a USD bull.

Cheers lets see how we get on.
Lol..,
You think Cables about to get hammered mid-longer term?

Be sure to let me know how you get on with that
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting PipTrapper
Yeah I'm sure we'll see a nice surge in USD, but how long do you think it's gonna last?

From what I can see on my charts, we're most likely on the precipice of a full risk-on environment. If I were a betting man, I'd be selling the USD in Q1 2014, but I'm not... I just look at where Mr. Market wants to go and I follow along.

One thing I never do is take any advice from a bank.
I don't predict, but rather go with the flow Pip, so to answer your question regarding how long I think the dollar strength could last, well I have no clue. I swing trade daily charts, and although I try and keep in mind a long term picture (as I mentioned-Dollar Bull Stance) never do I abide by it.

I am hesitant to load up on USD longs at the moment, as I think the Europeans could spike up one more time on USD into the New Year. I do have some USD longs running currently, but nothing crazy, and most of the risk has been scaled out so not worried if we get spikes early next week.


Quoting Ill-b-back
What makes you think I'm your bro?
I think we might struggle to get along.

$bull huh?

Surging equities might take care of that...?
The bro thing was a joke. I think short term will we will see a bit of USD strength. I am a bit hesitant though, and the equities appreciating furthers my stance in laying low.

Quoting Ill-b-back
Lol..,
You think Cables about to get hammered mid-longer term?

Be sure to let me know how you get on with that
I don't think the good numbers we saw in the UK were that of a broad based recovery. I felt it was more of the consumers' taking on debt due to inflated housing prices, so essentially moves were credit driven...we will see but I don't think BOE wants a high cable, and the markets think a rate hike is coming out of the UK but it won't (tons of good news priced into Sterling in my view), Carney knows the data isn't concrete, and the UK is in the "nascent" stages of the deemed recovery...


Cheers
This trend needs to be reinforced with a fundamental reason, to obtain a high level of confidence. on estimated USD in 2014, one of which the FED - taper.
What's interesting about the chart is from 1973 to 2013 the nominal USD versus major decline significantly.
Also, I think an equity correction is coming, and consequently, I like some yen longs in the coming weeks. Markets are really bearish the yen on speculation more stimulus is coming from the BOJ and it might, just not soon enough to justify the sell offs we've seen. I could be wrong again, but I am not afraid to share my opinion.

: )

Lets see how we get on.

*Also if we get that correction (lets see what the charts tell us in the next few weeks) we all know the USD will further appreciate on the risk averse appetite.

Lastly, I want to thank the Fed for not being complete idiots. Thank you Ben & Co. for beginning what needed to start in Sept.
Quoting sliqdaddy91
I don't predict, but rather go with the flow Pip, so to answer your question regarding how long I think the dollar strength could last, well I have no clue. I swing trade daily charts, and although I try and keep in mind a long term picture (as I mentioned-Dollar Bull Stance) never do I abide by it.

I am hesitant to load up on USD longs at the moment, as I think the Europeans could spike up one more time on USD into the New Year. I do have some USD longs running currently, but nothing crazy, and most of the risk has been scaled out so not worried...
I'm gonna go out on a limb and do some of my own predicting for Euro and Cable.

Euro: Next stop between now and the first week of 2014 will be 1.3500/50 area with a possible extension to 1.3280/3300. After that, hello 1.4x

Cable: Within the same time frame as the Euro, I expect to see 1.6200/40 area with a possible extension as low as anywhere between 1.6160 and 1.6080. After that, definitely 1.6550 and possibly 1.67x

I am more bullish on Euro than cable because according to what I see on the charts, the cross (EUR/GBP) is very bullish and I expect a launch quite soon back up into new highs either from current levels or after a pullback down to 8300.

...and those are predictions brought to you by my opinion based on the current view of the techs. They do not account for any fundamental changes or jawboning from EZ or UK idiots. So trade accordingly.

Merry Xmas to all.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Euro & GBP ending the year riding high on their M/T Golden Crosses since Q3.. Good odds for mid & long term money to support all good size dips for the pair targeting the 1.50 & 1.72 zones next year..

Mid & long term betting odds may had tilted with the market now half way to a paradigm shift where everything is pushed up to historic heights again with minor corrections along the way prior to a 2008 type dump..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7143347#post7143347


Quoting PipTrapper
...
the cross (EUR/GBP) is very bullish and I expect a launch quite soon back up into new highs either from current levels or after a pullback down to 8300.

...and those are predictions brought to you by my opinion based on the current view of the techs. They do not account for any fundamental changes or jawboning from EZ or UK idiots....
Good to see you sustaining your "balance views" since our last chat..
yes, EUR/GBP may be on the verge of taking out another L/T Wedge again & repeat the 2007~08 20+ figure bull run.. that'll keep Euro well supported up to the 1.50 zones..


Quoting sliqdaddy91
I don't predict, but rather go with the flow Pip,
"don't predict, go with the flow" is a misused trading clique as we're predicting any time we take a trade.. Unless you're privy to market moving insider infos, "go with the flow" would most likely leads to more money flow out of the account vs whatever money that flows in over time.. We must trade with convictions & have risk-adjust bias until proven wrong.. otherwise, we'll just be spinning our wheels, running around like chickens with heads cut-off..
Quoting cdndollar
Euro & GBP ending the year riding high on their M/T Golden Crosses since Q3.. Good odds for mid & long term money to support all good size dips for the pair targeting the 1.50 & 1.72 zones next year..

Mid & long term betting odds may had tilted with the market now half way to a paradigm shift where everything is pushed up to historic heights again with minor corrections along the way prior to a 2008 type dump..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post7143347




Good to see you sustaining your "balance views"...
Ahh, yes Sir, indeed, indeed, you reading my mind like a book.
I got the whole thing mapped out on my Cable chart.

It would be an absolute hoot if it worked out, lol...
But just follow those swing points and mid points and trying not to think too much
Come with me if you want to live....
I think Eur/GBP is going down....as I am more bearish of the Zone than of the UK.


Good discussion going on here though, all are a good read.

CdnDollar--different strokes for different folks sir, as a seasoned trader I am sure you know that....anyways, I really do go with the flow, I look for levels to break and then ride the waves.

Cheers
here I am in middle America -- Illinois -- on the 2nd day of winter and I just filled up the car w/ gas at 3.05 per gallon which is 25 cents a gallon cheaper than just a month ago. Commodity prices -- think food -- across the board are lower, while interest rates looked to have completed a long-term trough bottom, both of which alleviate the pain of slightly higher taxes for people making good money. And the first bi-part budget deal in many years will be worked out in Washington DC in the 1st Quarter. Buying the Greenback now is a bit IMHO like buying gold 10 years ago.

Sorry gloom-and-doomers the world does turn....
I still believe there is pretty good chance for dollar bullish run in Q1 abd Q2 2014.

But rarely trade on opinion - even mine :-).

Heavy hedging and long term positioning of cable shorts above 1.62 and cable longs bellow 1.55. Jogging with several accounts to ballance the liquidity. Predictions and MAs, HAs (technicals) out of my toolbox.
Fuel prices fall as oil fell below $90 a barrel shocker, fuel prices will rise as oil approaches $100 a barrel shocker. Real USA wages still below 1972 peak. 1.3 ml about to drop off unemployment data, claimant count stubborn average of 350K per week, 50 million on food stamps, whilst employment participation at desperate record lows. Meanwhile dollar finds true level versus its peers and?


Quoting Trout
here I am in middle America -- Illinois -- on the 2nd day of winter and I just filled up the car w/ gas at 3.05 per gallon which is 25 cents a gallon cheaper than just a month ago. Commodity prices -- think food -- across the board are lower, while interest rates looked to have completed a long-term trough bottom, both of which alleviate the pain of slightly higher taxes for people making good money. And the first bi-part budget deal in many years will be worked out in Washington DC in the 1st Quarter. Buying the Greenback now is a bit IMHO like...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
aha... so from the chart, price goes up and then down, before going up again...

Why they post this on FF baffles me, nobody here can hold a trade longer than 30 minutes anyway
tradewith60
Hahaha, some of my best swings this year have been held over two months. Why the fukc retail FX traders do anything other than swing mystifies me tbh.

Quoting 60minuteman


Why they post this on FF baffles me, nobody here can hold a trade longer than 30 minutes anyway
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Too many cristal balls here
Keep them coming,im going to get a second pack of popcorn
Quoting 60minuteman
aha... so from the chart, price goes up and then down, before going up again...

Why they post this on FF baffles me, nobody here can hold a trade longer than 30 minutes anyway
Lol, so true so true.
That was me 12 months ago
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Trout
here I am in middle America -- Illinois -- on the 2nd day of winter and I just filled up the car w/ gas at 3.05 per gallon which is 25 cents a gallon cheaper than just a month ago. Commodity prices -- think food -- across the board are lower, while interest rates looked to have completed a long-term trough bottom, both of which alleviate the pain of slightly higher taxes for people making good money. And the first bi-part budget deal in many years will be worked out in Washington DC in the 1st Quarter. Buying the Greenback now is a bit IMHO like...
Hi Trout. I'm no gloom n doomer and I do believe the USD is going to recover on a trade weighted index level, but I'm having a hard time seeing any sustained USD outperformance of European currencies unless we hit a bad patch sending the market into a tailspin of risk aversion.

Eventually even the commodity currencies will rally against the USD. The ones to suffer in my opinion are the EM currencies and the Japanese Yen.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Do you all think I am nuts if I say that I can see how there is a significant potential for the Euro to break above the 2008 highs by late 2014 / early 2015?

It's okay if you do. Everyone thought I was nuts when I was calling for 1.16 by late 2010 when the Euro was trading around 1.51 in late 2009. Yes I was wrong about it. It only made it to 1.1875 and it came 5 months earlier than I had anticipated, but hey I never claimed to be psychic.

Besides, not so long ago (about 2 weeks I think), I was calling for a rally to 1.4x followed by a drop to 1.14. Now I've changed my mind and I am more leaning towards 1.4x, followed by 1.32 before launching on a nice long rally to test the all time highs. Don't trade on that though... I might change my mind again tomorrow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
Do you all think I am nuts if I say that I can see how there is a significant potential for the Euro to break above the 2008 highs by late 2014 / early 2015?

It's okay if you do. Everyone thought I was nuts when I was calling for 1.16 by late 2010 when the Euro was trading around 1.51 in late 2009. Yes I was wrong about it. It only made it to 1.1875 and it came 5 months earlier than I had anticipated, but hey I never claimed to be psychic.

Besides, not so long ago (about 2 weeks I think), I was calling for a rally to 1.4x followed by a...
I think your timing MAY be a tad early but I'm in agreement on principle, especially if Fracking is adopted on a mass scale.

However, once the water/land poisoning and earthquakes start...,

It might be time to SELL!!

Come with me if you want to live....
Ya I'll chime in.

As my friend "Ill Be Back" has it bang on............

Retail clowns will take the obvious signal to "get long the dollar" as Ben and the Wall St boys depend.......

Only to be liquidated.

USD to the basement.

It's so, so , so , so ......obvious.
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
Quoting Forex Kong
Ya I'll chime in.

As my friend "Ill Be Back" has it bang on............

Retail clowns will take the obvious signal to "get long the dollar" as Ben and the Wall St boys depend.......

Only to be liquidated.

USD to the basement.

It's so, so , so , so ......obvious.
Weren't you the chap mentioning a Taper as not likely whatsoever just a few weeks ago? Lol. That doesn't matter, but what does is the present.

As you can read above I mentioned I like the Dollar long term, and in the very short term as we have seen. This tad of dollar strength makes me suspicious though as I am hesitant to put on any solid USD longs as it feels the Europeans can rally up a bit more.

I don't see how the Dollar will go to the basement in the coming months but perhaps you could mention how?

I see a market that hasn't really woken up to the problems in Zone, a slowing China, and a UK data series driven by inflated housing + consumer credit.

Perhaps those possibilities are irrelevant though as the market may be in a through and through risk on mode. Equities shot up, the yen weakened further and the dollar hasn't done much despite bullish news. So yes I am a weary trader at the moment, but my main question for you then Kong is, why do you say USD to the sh!tter. Lol

Cheers

Also, retailers to be liquidated? Heavens I hope not, use proper leverage and stops people!
Quoting Forex Kong
Ya I'll chime in.

As my friend "Ill Be Back" has it bang on............

Retail clowns will take the obvious signal to "get long the dollar" as Ben and the Wall St boys depend.......

Only to be liquidated.

USD to the basement.

It's so, so , so , so ......obvious.
How's things my friend?
I use the GU chart as a guidance on things.
Connecting the monthly and weekly dots from 2009 peak, we have broken north of a major containment pattern.

Yes, very interesting on the timing of the Taper announcement.
Come with me if you want to live....
In a "traded world" soley propelled forward by the continued "liquidity injection" from cental banks....what possible idea do you have that "now" is the time for it to end?

The "taper" is merely another ploy to pull in the rest of you small time clowns as the printing continues!

Japan to increase QE in April.....and U.S to tighten???

Ridiculous!
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
Quoting Forex Kong
In a "traded world" soley propelled forward by the continued "liquidity injection" from cental banks....what possible idea do you have that "now" is the time for it to end?

The "taper" is merely another ploy to pull in the rest of you small time clowns as the printing continues!

Japan to increase QE in April.....and U.S to tighten???

Ridiculous!
No need to call anyone clowns lol. I was asking you why you believe USD to the basement and this is how you responded.
Understood Abe wants to pump more money into his Japanese economy, but my question for you is this, won't G7 nations/economies stand up to the liquidity because obvious devaluing hurts their exports?

Surely Germany is already pissed at the Japanese, and adding more stimulus can't be ok with the Eurozone powerhouse, or other G7s for that matter.

So yes, the Japanese want more stimulus but isn't it far and away from being a sure thing?

There would be repercussions no?

Just shed some light on us "clowns"... Thanks : )
u make light of a slowing China and a UK housing bubble and what???'

U.S to "advocate" tightening??

Man.....you are completely upside down if you think any of this bodes well for the U.S Dollar.

U.S to double QE moving forward......we can bank on it.
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
I've already been thru "initiation" here at FF ( brutal ) so......as I've learned....

You'd better have a pretty thick skin here.

Opinions jaja ja........I'm not looking to argue.

Trade it. Make money......and do your best to get along...that's all I can recommend.
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
Quoting Forex Kong
I've already been thru "initiation" here at FF ( brutal ) so......as I've learned....

You'd better have a pretty thick skin here.

Opinions jaja ja........I'm not looking to argue.

Trade it. Make money......and do your best to get along...that's all I can recommend.

I'm not looking to argue either, Cheers Kong.
As you've suggested - let's see how we move forward as....

These are crazy times.....these markets are crazy.

You need to stay safe, learn , protect yourself......

And try not to drink too much over the holidays.

Cheers man.
I'm short humanity, and long interplanetary travel. Forexkong.kom
I think the picture is really really hard to be predicted in the near future. Standing out of the market is a good choice. Enjoy the holidays also!
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I don't see any tightening, nor I see loose money as before either. It will be tighter than before, but not tight enough. Fed will reduced to at most 60 bil/ month and that's it. It's less than 85 bil/month before.

QE will continue in 2015. Rate won't increase. But who knows, US election is in 2016. So, despite of QE, Gold and USD will rise in 2015.

That's my prediction, but don;t count on it. It's too far ahead. I don't even know what will happen the next minute.
Okay guys... Look at it this way.
Does anyone here think that the world is going to invest in USA industries more than in half beaten economies with huge potential? I submit to you that if you do believe that, then I think you may be lacking some understanding of global macroeconomics... or perhaps you're a bit biased.

Gain / yield / profit is what the market wants and they want as much as they can get. Therefore, they will look for beaten down investments. So where are they going to find such beasts? The US? No effin way. Corporate and Industrial America are on solid footing and whilst their potential for further growth is quite significant, it fails in comparison to other established economies. The beaten down investments are in those nations that have suffered the most yet are supported by solid old money. So where do we find these? Simple answer is the European Union. Most attractive will be the PIIGS (or to be politically correct, GIIPS) nations of the Eurozone where a wise stock picker will easily double his money in a short period of time. Therefore, as long as the ECB does not introduce negative deposit rates and instead provides more LTRO money or implements a FLS (Funding for Lending Scheme), I expect to see the EuroStoxx 600 outperform the SP500 and DJIA combined... and that will drive capital of the greedy from both US equities and US bonds into the European equity markets thereby propping up European currencies... and I don't mean only the Euro.

Also, you cannot exclude emerging markets and the commodity block once economic activity picks up again in Europe. Europe is a huge consumer of natural resources (Commodity block) and outsourced services (India) and imported cheap goods (China). Of course this will not really take off, until Europeans start spending and growing again. It may take some years, but in the meantime, investment money will flow in to Europe from lower yielding (sometimes called "safe haven") currencies such as the USD, the CHF and the JPY.

Don't ask me when all this will happen. I suck at timing, but I can assure you that this will be the next major macro move as long as the shit doesn't hit the fan before then. Shit hitting fan = the world goes to hell in a hand basket, in which case buy loads and loads of physical gold, a few animals, lots of vegetable seeds, fruit trees, water and fuel reserves and build yourself an impenetrable fortress. Not that any of the above will guarantee your survival, but it'll give you an upper hand.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Sounds like you're a fan of Doomsday Preppers, PipTrapper
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
Quoting spekitox
Sounds like you're a fan of Doomsday Preppers, PipTrapper
Nah. I'm no fan of anything but the welfare of my family. That last bit is sound advice no matter what one believes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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How nice of Deutsche Bank to give us a heads-up to be long the dollar. I'm sure they always have the best interests of traders in their hearts LOL...........
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The EUR/USD will go up another 200 pips from here or another 200 pips down from current levels. I bet my house on it -- real crystal ball style!! lol
Ignore all of these comments. Just look at your chart. The current EU is 52 bars (4 hr) below, 52 bars (1 day) above.

That means it is higher than 52 days ago, and lower than 208 hrs ago.

What it means? It means it stays where it is. It doesn't break any major resistant nor support.

Of course this can change, it will either go up or down, nobody knows.
http://snbchf.com/global-macro/eurusd-1-50/

vs

http://www.efxnews.com/story/22181/must-see-chart-why-big-usd-gains-are-still-ahead-deutsche-bank

ask Mr. Elliot and throw a bat at it...flip a coin whatever ur heart desires
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Aren't these the same schmucks that predicted $2500 gold??...or was it Goldman?... no, I think it was Morgan Stanley!
Quoting frx_trader
Ignore all of these comments. Just look at your chart. The current EU is 52 bars (4 hr) below, 52 bars (1 day) above.

That means it is higher than 52 days ago, and lower than 208 hrs ago.

What it means? It means it stays where it is. It doesn't break any major resistant nor support.

Of course this can change, it will either go up or down, nobody knows.
He he,
So price is going to stay where it is unless something changes and it goes up or down.

that's a real eye opener.

Thanks for that.

Like you said, I think it's best we ignore the comments in here
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Ill-b-back
He he,
So price is going to stay where it is unless something changes and it goes up or down.

that's a real eye opener.

Thanks for that.

Like you said, I think it's best we ignore the comments in here
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Thanks PT for the third flow into the Euro. You can leave out the 'G' and its neighbour across the Adriatic, which leaves just 'IPS'. Spain and Ireland are leaving EC/IMF protection schemes, and Portugal is getting its act together. So I shall start looking for targets in the companies there.

My take is that USD will improve in the near term because the US economy seems to be gathering pace. Also IMHO we are a way off from a full blown risk-on scenario so short term, H1 2014, should see USD strength at the expense of other currencies.

To revisit some discussion about Cable way back above, the high street is suffering badly this Christmas. Retail sales have started early and discounts are big, there was even talk about some names not making their store rental bills for this quarter. That will be apparent in January and if it is true the UK economy will take a knock.

Quoting PipTrapper
....Don't ask me when all this will happen. I suck at timing, but I can assure you that this will be the next major macro move as long as the shit doesn't hit the fan before then. Shit hitting fan = the world goes to hell in a hand basket, in which case buy loads and loads of physical gold, a few animals, lots of vegetable seeds, fruit trees, water and fuel reserves and build yourself an impenetrable fortress. Not that any of the above will guarantee your survival, but it'll give you an upper hand.
You missed out the bit where you buy AK47 and all the clips you can find. This was advised to some wealth management clients back in 2008/9, seems it might be a good background project if you have the means.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Mr Kalashnikov actually died today, 100 million of the AK47 built.

Quoting Exodus

You missed out the bit where you buy AK47 and all the clips you can find. This was advised to some wealth management clients back in 2008/9, seems it might be a good background project if you have the means.....
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Good link that first one, thanks.


Quoting TraderPablo
http://snbchf.com/global-macro/eurusd-1-50/

vs

http://www.efxnews.com/story/22181/m...-deutsche-bank

ask Mr. Elliot and throw a bat at it...flip a coin whatever ur heart desires
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Maybe I am wrong, but doesn't Germany keep the Zone afloat?

Spain, Italy, and France are three nations plagued by high unemployment, little growth, and high debt but they aren't really mentioned in many of the reports I read.

Question, and I am not trying to start a war (so all the Europhiles just chillll)...

How can the one interest rate, exchange rate fit all work with such a lop sided affair?

It just seems to me that if we were to take Germany (and all that robust data) out of the Zone, Europe would be a bloody mess.
Also last week Draghi stated that the economic recovery in the Eurozone was still fragile and that inflation in the area could stay low for a long period of time. Draghi also stressed the ECB's key interest rates would remain at current or lower levels for an extended period of time and added:

“Adjusting interest rates is not always sufficient to maintain price stability.”

So if adjusting interest rates is not enough - what is he implying? Extra monetary stimulus?

He confirmed this by saying, the ECB would use - “all available instruments.”

^this is dovish to me. what are your guys thoughts?
Quoting sliqdaddy91
Also last week Draghi stated that the economic recovery in the Eurozone was still fragile and that inflation in the area could stay low for a long period of time. Draghi also stressed the ECB's key interest rates would remain at current or lower levels for an extended period of time and added:

“Adjusting interest rates is not always sufficient to maintain price stability.”

So if adjusting interest rates is not enough - what is he implying? Extra monetary stimulus?

He confirmed this by saying, the ECB would use - “all available instruments.”

^this...
My thoughts are Ben pretty much said all of the above also.

But it's only the rare few who want to acknowledge this.
Throw in the negative US trade balance, larger debt, larger unfounded liabilities, QE at $75B/month, horrible participation rate, bankrupts like Detroit and others, record food stamp numbers, tent cities, and we start to get a more balanced view.
Come with me if you want to live....
And if the stimulus money actually starts to pour into the real economy rather than gathering dust as excess reserves, we could see another full blown risk on environment such as the one seen before the crash.
Come with me if you want to live....
No it doesn't, it's become a lazy one line glib statement, Italy, France and Germany are amongst the seventh/eighth largest economies globally, the EU runs a trading balance of circa €200bn positive YoY whilst the USA runs a deficit of $400bn.

However, unemployment is still a huge issue in the weaker southern states and I'm someone who doesn't accept the jobless recovery concept but propping up our weaker states in the United States of Europe is only similar to the USA propping up California, Nevada and Detroit. Folk also fail to recognise what an achievement it's been to create trade harmonisation and monetary union in the area, banking union will further strengthen that union.

As for levels of debt the ECB's balance sheet is incomparable to that of the Fed and whilst I disagree with the pain Greece and other PIIGS have gone through the ECB and EU have kept a lot of their powder dry and not resorted to the level of debt creation the USA have suggesting that the EU and EA have a more solid base to recover from.

Quoting sliqdaddy91
Maybe I am wrong, but doesn't Germany keep the Zone afloat?

Spain, Italy, and France are three nations plagued by high unemployment, little growth, and high debt but they aren't really mentioned in many of the reports I read.

Question, and I am not trying to start a war (so all the Europhiles just chillll)...

How can the one interest rate, exchange rate fit all work with such a lop sided affair?

It just seems to me that if we were to take Germany (and all that robust data) out of the Zone, Europe would be a bloody mess.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
haha a lazy glib statement you say? let's see how prices move over the next few weeks Euro is looking like it's due a bounce up...

I have my doubts regarding France, Spain, and Italy.


Cheers and Happy Holidays All
Agree. Unemployment in EZ is solved completely. Greece will become like Detroit, Spain like New Mexico and Italy like Alabama. But don't have to worry, Germany will become like North Dakota with unemployment below 4%, and GDP grow above 4.5%.
If that was an attempt at humour (or irony) it was an epic fail. Don't go changing the habit of a lifetime eh?


Quoting frx_trader
Agree. Unemployment in EZ is solved completely. Greece will become like Detroit, Spain like New Mexico and Italy like Alabama. But don't have to worry, Germany will become like North Dakota with unemployment below 4%, and GDP grow above 4.5%.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting frx_trader
Agree. Unemployment in EZ is solved completely. Greece will become like Detroit, Spain like New Mexico and Italy like Alabama. But don't have to worry, Germany will become like North Dakota with unemployment below 4%, and GDP grow above 4.5%.
One thing I can tell you about Greece, Italy and Spain is that half of the unemployed actually have a better income than the fully employed because they are collecting unemployment benefits as well as working off the books. The labour market in those countries has always been that way. The people are quite wealthy... it is only the governments and the banks that are broke.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting Spreadbetter
If that was an attempt at humour (or irony) it was an epic fail. Don't go changing the habit of a lifetime eh?
And where do I buy cars with the label :"MADE IN EZ"? And you know I have seen some exported cars with the label "MADE IN DETROIT, MICHIGAN".
Quoting PipTrapper
One thing I can tell you about Greece, Italy and Spain is that half of the unemployed actually have a better income than the fully employed because they are collecting unemployment benefits as well as working off the books. The labour market in those countries has always been that way. The people are quite wealthy... it is only the governments and the banks that are broke.
true.. but individuals and financial "gurus" not familiar with these places (never lived there) wouldn't know...

http://www.voxeu.org/article/are-germans-really-poorer-spaniards-italians-and-greeks
BTW the glib statement is that Germany is holding up the EZ, it is not entirely true.

Quoting sliqdaddy91
...How can the one interest rate, exchange rate fit all work with such a lop sided affair?

It just seems to me that if we were to take Germany (and all that robust data) out of the Zone, Europe would be a bloody mess.
Here is one shocker that some people don't realise: Italy has a positive trade balance! That's right, Italy exports more than it imports, <gasp!>, and last time I looked, a few years ago now, it had a gold reserve equal to its governmental debt. The fly in the ointment could be that if the gold is held in the USA, like some which Germany tried to repatriate recently, there is a possibility that it does not actually exist..... Also the Italian political system seems to be nearly as corrupt as the Greek, so I don't hold out much hope for their economy at the moment.

Additionally there are more EZ members with a positive trade balance, there must be because the figures published are greater than those for Germany and Italy combined. My favourites are Finland, the Netherlands and Austria; and one day I will look up their output figures to see if I am correct.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting Spreadbetter
Mr Kalashnikov actually died today, 100 million of the AK47 built.
Some Christmas present, eh? I am not sure how we should celebrate his passing.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
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  • Posted: Dec 20, 2013 3:13pm
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     eFx Newz
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 65  /  Views: 8,175