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  • If QE Tapering Is Coming, Why Are Yields, the US Dollar Index Not Ripping Higher?

    From minyanville.com

    Starting about two months ago, I began thinking the euro was setting up as a very nice sell candidate as it rebounded after what looked like five waves lower. What has transpired in terms of the euro’s trading action – especially versus the greenback – has been a relentless march to the upside (including a recapture of the previously broken uptrend line and the successful conquering of various potential resistance levels on the way up). When the prevailing thoughts were that we would see “perma-tapering” – something that has been mentioned by some respected media types (especially when the data were more ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Dec 11, 2013 1:52pm Dec 11, 2013 1:52pm
Tapering =/= tightening. That is why.
  • #2
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  • Dec 11, 2013 1:59pm Dec 11, 2013 1:59pm
Because "we" get caught up in these historical tendencies. The market will play out when the market is ready.

Before this year, the dollar was historical inverse equities. If you kept shorting USD on that premise in the first half of the year you got smashed.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #3
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  • Dec 11, 2013 2:02pm Dec 11, 2013 2:02pm
Tapering is daylight hoax
  • #4
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  • Dec 11, 2013 2:12pm Dec 11, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Because "we" get caught up in these historical tendencies. The market will play out when the market is ready.

Before this year, the dollar was historical inverse equities. If you kept shorting USD on that premise in the first half of the year you got smashed.
huh?? look at USD/CHF, EUR/USD, AUD/USD - dollar was dumped, but if you refer to YEN, it was dumped faster
  • #5
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  • Dec 11, 2013 2:17pm Dec 11, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting Ulterior
huh?? look at USD/CHF, EUR/USD, AUD/USD - dollar was dumped, but if you refer to YEN, it was dumped faster
Yeah exactly lol! Why cant everyone just except they were wrong and move on!!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #6
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  • Dec 11, 2013 2:18pm Dec 11, 2013 2:18pm
My capital preservation instincts cause my thoughts to immediately run to "there must be something going on behind the scenes that the public doesn’t know about."

Absolutely correct. We don't know. I thought I was the only one.
  • #7
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  • Dec 11, 2013 2:27pm Dec 11, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting Ulterior
huh?? look at USD/CHF, EUR/USD, AUD/USD - dollar was dumped, but if you refer to YEN, it was dumped faster
USD is the worldwide currency, Yen is not. All of the world knows about USD. I have never seen Yen. And Japan probably doesn't want Yen to be all over the world.

Country debt is paid preferably in USD. That's an unwritten convention, except there is multilateral agreement.

It's the world not just US problem if USD becomes toilet paper.
  • #8
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  • Dec 11, 2013 3:04pm Dec 11, 2013 3:04pm
Quoting Pip Anon
Because "we" get caught up in these historical tendencies. The market will play out when the market is ready.

Before this year, the dollar was historical inverse equities. If you kept shorting USD on that premise in the first half of the year you got smashed.

Huh? Hasn't the dollar weakened, while equities have gone through the roof this year?

Fundamentally, isn't also fair to assume that if the markets were expecting a taper, yields should be appreciating as would the USDX. Then again most market participants don't want to believe the cheap Fed money will ever end : )

Perhaps a March taper is discounted by the vast majority, I for one, am in the camp which believes the Taper is around the corner (Dec/Jan). I really look forward to the reactions of all markets if they do it sooner than later.

Cheers, lets see how we get on.
  • #9
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  • Dec 11, 2013 4:45pm Dec 11, 2013 4:45pm
WHEN (not if) the next bust cycle comes, we will see a new global reserve currency introduced to supercede the Euro and incorporate all currencies. Remember the Maastricht Treaty? 1992? Bull run since then. Greece was Head of IMF and it's 5 year loans matured with extra 12 month extension from IMF and then default, so all of Europe bailed out Greece. Nice one lads. Bull run again, then other businesses go bust that were huge and owed money to other Bretton Woods companiees and affiliates... Bust again. Banks crumbled and bailed out by governments with loans from IMF. Boom again. Deficits increased to beyond breaking point, inflation printers began, credit extended and Zimbabwe becomes an all too familiar byword in pariah hyperinflation cycles until bust after 1st half 2014 failures. Crash for 2 years, new currency, new leaders, new bull run. C'Est La Vie. The US economy was toppled by European trade surpluses unexpectedly. The balance of trade was tipped and demand rocketed on low incomes... credit was extended by... clever bankers.
You win, you lose. All else is history. The future does not exist.
  • #10
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  • Dec 11, 2013 6:35pm Dec 11, 2013 6:35pm
  •  Trader#FB36
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Because tapering is not coming

Simple....
  • #11
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  • Dec 11, 2013 9:24pm Dec 11, 2013 9:24pm
Quoting Guest
Because tapering is not coming

Simple....
all currencies against the dollar, because they need to prepare before the tapering.
so, it's coming this month.
  • #12
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  • Dec 11, 2013 11:18pm Dec 11, 2013 11:18pm
Tapering has been discounted in May
This month (Dec) is booking profits re-balancing positions
EURUSD is unstoppable Draghi on the move bias to 1.400
The USDJPY cemented the 100 level
The DOW is about to give in any moment
The Relative Strength is your only friend now.
Respect it.
Risk on Risk off . Let's roll!
  • #13
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  • Dec 12, 2013 12:15am Dec 12, 2013 12:15am
Quoting sliqdaddy91
Huh? Hasn't the dollar weakened, while equities have gone through the roof this year?

Fundamentally, isn't also fair to assume that if the markets were expecting a taper, yields should be appreciating as would the USDX. Then again most market participants don't want to believe the cheap Fed money will ever end : )

Perhaps a March taper is discounted by the vast majority, I for one, am in the camp which believes the Taper is around the corner (Dec/Jan). I really look forward to the reactions of all markets if they do it sooner than later....
I said historically, and if you look back the dollar went up along with equities until about September when the Fed taper thing was botched.

Does the S&P drop 20 pts today because it's been discounted?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #14
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  • Dec 12, 2013 12:17am Dec 12, 2013 12:17am
Quoting Ulterior
huh?? look at USD/CHF, EUR/USD, AUD/USD - dollar was dumped, but if you refer to YEN, it was dumped faster
Holy crap can you please actually read my post? The dollar hit multiyear highs this year, a three year high to be exact.

I'll forgive your misread this time, but it gets annoying.

Mind you AUDUSD dropped 1400 pips - I.E. Dollar strength.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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  • Posted: Dec 11, 2013 1:34pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Technical Analysis
    Comments: 14  /  Views: 5,547