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  • ADP: Private Sector Employment Increased by 215,000 Jobs in November

    From adpemploymentreport.com Story is in PDF Format

    – Private sector employment increased by 215,000 jobs from October to November, according to the November ADP National Employment Report® . Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP® , a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Goods-producing employment rose by 40,000 jobs in November, up from 29,000 in ... (full story)

  •  Guest
  • | IP X.XXX.150.13
And i bet there is still no Dec' taper!!
Another potential reason for Dec taper - But who cares, its all BS anyway
good number is bad number for stocks, sell sell
1000% hoax
what a bullshit market. the EUR and GBP just don't wanna move.
Now what's about Gold ? Is going higher, Why?
Enter Signature
ADP is almost always wrong about data, so in fact non-farm employment change will be probably much worse on friday
Quoting skymania
what a bullshit market. the EUR and GBP just don't wanna move.
It is all about the chart not the sudden news moves
Taper on the feds table again !
Quoting wmossa
It is all about the chart not the sudden news moves
you mean the overbought EUR and GBP on the chart? I agree.
Quoting wmossa
It is all about the chart not the sudden news moves
It will go down......slowly but will go down,.....
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.16.166
the number is true just see the revision from 130k to 184k!!!!
Remember, this is the holiday season. Most of these jobs are part-time or temporary. BY march we'll be back to 84k

These seasonal swings happen every year
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
Gold today under 1200 good news in December reduction in QE ... Gold Sale Sale Sale
Large US leveraged account dumping EUR/GBP - nice spike
not forgetting the past good news of great NFC assumption that the good news will come on Friday, the Fed needs to reduce arguments and those just happen
What was the corresponding print this time last year?


Quoting Pip Anon
Remember, this is the holiday season. Most of these jobs are part-time or temporary. BY march we'll be back to 84k

These seasonal swings happen every year
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
What was the corresponding print this time last year?
118K was the corresponding print at Dec 5th 2012
Market likes the number, Gold will go to 1300. I think.
Sure and we all have our pre conceptions and prejudices but these employment numbers and the latest trade figures are excellent.


Quoting Marsfx
118K was the corresponding print at Dec 5th 2012
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
@frx_trader what is the reason for your expectation of 1300 for gold?
Yes, a bit "too excellent"....

Quoting Spreadbetter
Sure and we all have our pre conceptions and prejudices but these employment numbers and the latest trade figures are excellent.
Well I'm not gonna quibble with the BEA data but ADP can be inaccurate despite their claims of improving methodology. I don't think they'll be 'that' out, maybe 10-30K? Still a huge improvement on last year.


Quoting ThisPip
Yes, a bit "too excellent"....
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.99.147
I think the market will crash before they really take the foot off the petal printing money in QE infinity.
Quoting safelyinvest
@frx_trader what is the reason for your expectation of 1300 for gold?
I will tell later, i have some positions.
Yeah I'd be interested in that too.


Quoting safelyinvest
@frx_trader what is the reason for your expectation of 1300 for gold?
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
Well I'm not gonna quibble with the BEA data but ADP can be inaccurate despite their claims of improving methodology. I don't think they'll be 'that' out, maybe 10-30K? Still a huge improvement on last year.
My opinion is that the revision of last data from 130K to 184k palys an important role. Please also note that the NFP also were revised upwards last time also. So the past "bad" data gave the excuse to Yellen to make her testimony the way Dem and Rep senators wanted.

I really want to see how they will keep printing if numbers are good in the future also?? Lets say if the unemployment number is Below 7%.
I'm not sure why so many of us have become confused over the taper narrative, the target is 6.5% unemployment which on current trajectory equals another year of QE/monetary easing. The last time Bernanke gave evidence he categorically dismissed the rumours of taper and reminded everyone of that target. So for me there is no taper, not until the unemployment target is reached.

Quoting Marsfx
My opinion is that the revision of last data from 130K to 184k palys an important role. Please also note that the NFP also were revised upwards last time also. So the past "bad" data gave the excuse to Yellen to make her testimony the way Dem and Rep senators wanted.

I really want to see how they will keep printing if numbers are good in the future also?? Lets say if the unemployment number is Below 7%.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
I'm not sure why so many of us have become confused over the taper narrative, the target is 6.5% unemployment which on current trajectory equals another year of QE/monetary easing. The last time Bernanke gave evidence he categorically dismissed the rumours of taper and reminded everyone of that target. So for me there is no taper, not until the unemployment target is reached.
Actually NO the scenario is that they will NOT RAISE INTERST RATES UP UNTIL THE 6.5% OR BELOW IS REACHED. Stopage of QE is NOT an interest rate rise..
It's part of the same monetary policy, unemployment>interest rate>QE, but you're right on the specifics, iirc correctly Bernanke moved the goalposts around June between the 6.5-7% level.


Quoting Marsfx
Actually NO the scenario is that they will NOT RAISE INTERST RATES UP UNTIL THE 6.5% OR BELOW IS REACHED. Stopage of QE is NOT an interest rate rise..
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting safelyinvest
@frx_trader what is the reason for your expectation of 1300 for gold?
Quoting Spreadbetter
Yeah I'd be interested in that too.
It's unclear now. Just watch the market. That's all I have to say.
Quoting wmossa
It is all about the chart not the sudden news moves
bullshit
Quoting Spreadbetter
Well I'm not gonna quibble with the BEA data but ADP can be inaccurate despite their claims of improving methodology. I don't think they'll be 'that' out, maybe 10-30K?
Last month's number was off 54K.
I can't see that revision in their release only skim read it which paragraph? Thanks

Quoting Hot4Pips
Last month's number was off 54K.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
note if sale starts at GBP and Euro so strong dollar equals weak gold and it is a question of a short time that is gold through Friday at 1180 and go against the trend does not pay
Hello everyone,
I think this is fifth trap for sellers, second around 1.3525.A lot of technical reasons that price may rebuild bullish strength.

Best Regards,
Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
Quoting Spreadbetter
I can't see that revision in their release only skim read it which paragraph? Thanks
It's here on FF in the calender.
In the previous report dated October 30th?

Quoting Hot4Pips
It's here on FF in the calender.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
A word from a trader who have lost 4 accounts : "Keep selling Gold, you will meet your doom".
While everyone here is debating scratching their empty pockets - sharks are laughing - confusion caused :-)
Pump it up and dump it, oh, stop forgot to trigger stop losses for previous shorts so the spikes look impressive as for one hour worth trading. 10 points in SP.
well done big boys
That's it for today guys, Gold hits my target 1235.80. Have a good day.
Everyone debating here, "masters of economy", but none have any conclusions hahaha
Quoting Spreadbetter
In the previous report dated October 30th?
Yes on 30 Oct. the print was 130K. That number was revised upward to an actual 184K. Quite far off I would say. It's a shame if data that holds so much weight in all markets can be so wrong.
Quoting Kuba
Everyone debating here, "masters of economy", but none have any conclusions hahaha
Pretty silly when you think about it is it not? When all you need to do is calculate the volatility envelope you desire to trade and trade it. But of course with registered morons like the now demoted English Poodle in attendance what do you expect? what a laugh at a scandal
Ah, I was looking for the downward revision in the previous report. Doh. But I'm not really sure ADP counts or should be ranked as high impact news. They made a big pitch approx a year ago stating their methodology was cleaned and refined, only took a couple of months for the main fault that they were renowned for to creep back in.


Quoting Hot4Pips
Yes on 30 Oct. the print was 130K. That number was revised upward to an actual 184K. Quite far off I would say. It's a shame if data that holds so much weight in all markets can be so wrong.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
Sure and we all have our pre conceptions and prejudices but these employment numbers and the latest trade figures are excellent.
Cool dude. It was lower, you also seen it taper off in the spring. I didn't say they were bad. I said it was seasonality.

Please read instead of immediately being snippy.

And if you look historically, we are at the jobs resistance line. Two prints where higher, but outliers. Until in continuously prints 200K every month, it means nothing for the long run
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
It's a very good print vis a vis last year. I agree wrt your overall suspicions, participation rates are at 35 year lows after all.


Quoting Pip Anon
Cool dude. It was lower, you also seen it taper off in the spring. I didn't say they were bad. I said it was seasonality.

Please read instead of immediately being snippy.

And if you look historically, we are at the jobs resistance line. Two prints where higher, but outliers. Until in continuously prints 200K every month, it means nothing for the long run
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.134.56
Quoting Loadedgun
Pretty silly when you think about it is it not? When all you need to do is calculate the volatility envelope you desire to trade and trade it. But of course with registered morons like the now demoted English Poodle in attendance what do you expect? what a laugh at a scandal
Hi Loadedgun, in your profile you shouted 35hours ago the following

"You are Euro safe going up to 1.37394 without retrace for now and with a stop set at 1.35000. We can assess the situation at that point though our long-term view remains 1.40/41 at this stage and at which point (or just prior) we can review the situation. Of course we must trade with risk in mind and there is always a chance that fluctuants (such as natural and or political etc events) can cause temporary deviations but will NEVER revers forecast trajectory. Good Luck"

I don't understand what you mean by WITHOUT RETRACE and a stop set at 1.3500 - so the 70 over pips drop after ADP news doesn't count at all?

I had followed your entry suggestion at 1.37 with TP 1.4 previously but heard nothing back from you when I needed help.
You can see that it doesnt count, price got back to initial position in just 1-2 hours. As you can find in his call there is a word "FLUCTUANTS"......
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.220.19
Did he not state 1.37394 without retrace? Seems pretty conclusive. Price retraced, looks coiled for a break out to either side, but I'd say at this stage that his call was very poor and ill advised.


Quoting Kuba
You can see that it doesnt count, price got back to initial position in just 1-2 hours. As you can find in his call there is a word "FLUCTUANTS"......
Quoting Guest
Did he not state 1.37394 without retrace? Seems pretty conclusive. Price retraced, looks coiled for a break out to either side, but I'd say at this stage that his call was very poor and ill advised.
It is not a retrace, it was just fluctuations and possibility to open buy. You don't have to play. Sit and watch what will happen .
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.220.19
Sorry, what do you mean "sit and watch what will happen" as if something is pre determined or pre ordained? Price will either break to the upside or downside, no one can predcit with absolute certainty which way. No one.


Quoting Kuba
It is not a retrace, it was just fluctuations and possibility to open buy. You don't have to play. Sit and watch what will happen .
Quoting Guest
Sorry, what do you mean "sit and watch what will happen" as if something is pre determined or pre ordained? Price will either break to the upside or downside, no one can predcit with absolute certainty which way. No one.
So you have the answer
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello everyone,
I think this is fifth trap for sellers, second around 1.3525.A lot of technical reasons that price may rebuild bullish strength.

Best Regards,
Petar
you're right
but buyers also failed five times at daily chart to break resistance at 1.3645 (Oct 3 High)
Quoting safelyinvest
@frx_trader what is the reason for your expectation of 1300 for gold?

i was thinking yesterday, gold would hit a bottum in a couple of weeks then go higher well past 1300
Anyone know that yesterday the USD bullish or bearish in the market at 8:15am??
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