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  • The Latest Threat To The Risk Currency Rally

    From fxempire.com

    Iran, China, and Some FX Implications The following is a partial summary of thoughts and conclusions from our weekly fxempire.com analysts’ end of week meeting, in which we share ideas about the outlook for global equities, currencies, and commodity markets for the coming week and beyond. Risk assets and currencies continue to rally, as markets continue to shrug off concerns about a coming Fed Taper, the EU, and arguably overvalued markets. Here’s a new cluster of developments to consider. While last week had little market moving news, it had some major geopolitical developments with equally significant potential ... (full story)

the night away----------> Nice One!
This article full of specifics has the power to shape a macro fundamental perspective going into next year. Excellent.
Hi all FX experts,

All the news seems to put EUR/USD down included the interest rate cut. But, what I saw is the price level keep going up. What do you guys think? In the upcoming months, will it the price move below 1.33000 level? Thanks
The USD and USD bonds should get a boost if this story drags on, given that:

Recent data out of the EU continues to support the view that the ECB is likely to become more dovish relative to the Fed.

The JPY is the only currency that ranks higher on the safe haven spectrum. However its vulnerability to rising tensions with China makes the USD a better bet.

Traders remain overall short the EURUSD per both latest COT reports, and the forexfactory.com EURUSD live positions chart below.

<The above is the report from forexfactory.com - so, does it means the EUR/USD will go down? Blur?!> ;p
my big question is: how much did the capitulation to Iran influence China's decision to declare the air defense zone now?
Following up to last comment, current Iran-China connection reminds me of plot to Tom Clancy's bestsellers Debt of Honor and Executive Decision, both of which explored China-Iran conspiracy line (admittedly with a few other twists).

Life imitates art? Fun reads, btw
Quoting Eagle FX
Hi all FX experts,

All the news seems to put EUR/USD down included the interest rate cut. But, what I saw is the price level keep going up. What do you guys think? In the upcoming months, will it the price move below 1.33000 level? Thanks
EURUSD getting its boost from risk appetite as major indexes keep rising - it's sure not getting any help from EU or US data, all of which continue to point to ECB moving dovish vs. the fed, albeit incrementally
ironically, US retreat to ultimately boost risk aversion, and USD!
Quoting Yali Lev
ironically, US retreat to ultimately boost risk aversion, and USD!
? thus giving China a chance to sell off a bunch of its USD and USD - denominated bonds, then de-escalate and buy them back at a profit. hmmmm
Stop embarrassing yourself by attempting to 'spam' interest, its a bit sad tbh. Take a leaf out of Marc Chandler's book (marctomarket) and create the article, then post the article, whilst taking a dignified step back...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
Stop embarrassing yourself by attempting to 'spam' interest, its a bit sad tbh. Take a leaf out of Marc Chandler's book (marctomarket) and create the article, then post the article, whilst taking a dignified step back...
what, can't interact or have any fun with readers?
how would that 'spam interest'?
Quoting Cliff Wachtel
my big question is: how much did the capitulation to Iran influence China's decision to declare the air defense zone now?
I didn't think of that. If we play Risk, I'm gonna need you to spot me Greenland, maybe Uruguay too....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting Spreadbetter
Stop embarrassing yourself by attempting to 'spam' interest, its a bit sad tbh. Take a leaf out of Marc Chandler's book (marctomarket) and create the article, then post the article, whilst taking a dignified step back...
lol
Quoting Eagle FX
Hi all FX experts,

All the news seems to put EUR/USD down included the interest rate cut. But, what I saw is the price level keep going up. What do you guys think? In the upcoming months, will it the price move below 1.33000 level? Thanks
I have short position on EU because not only spaculation on rate cut , germany want to inflation in entire bloc, devaluation in euro good for export n cant afford inceasing in exchange value...as per technical still shown barier it cant cross tradline and shooting star on daily time frame also look out the dollar index its sign for further upward move....(Sry for english its not my primary lang) good luck for your trade
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Short position on eur/usd is good subject to rather large stop(if you are a retail trader) as it could touch 1.3680 ish before turning down. John
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  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Nov 30, 2013 7:54pm
  • Submitted by:
     Cliff Wachtel
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 15  /  Views: 4,346