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  • Goldman Reveals First Two "Top Trades" Of 2014: Buy S&P, Short AUD

    From zerohedge.com

    The only thing that prevents us from going all in short the S&P following the revelation that Goldman's first revealed top trade of 2014 is to go long the S&P Dec 2014 futures with a target of 2250 and a close below 1855, is that the reco is not from Tom Stolper but his colleague Noah Weisberger whose muppet wipe out record is not quite as prominent. Still, for Goldman clients to buy S&P futs, Goldman has to sell it to them, and as always - do what Goldman does, not what it says. Recommended Top Trades for 2014 Longer-term structural views are expressed in our Top Trade recommendations. These are typically ... (full story)

That's when you know to short the S&P, go long AUD.
I agree 100% with JB
Quoting JollyBean
That's when you know to short the S&P, go long AUD.
SP500 fall usually means USDX strengthening .
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
Whether it is true or not , we can't be sure. The best thing to do now is continue our own trades. the pairs we know and the pairs we analyze. Lets not jump into things that our charts don't show us. I have never traded S&P and hence don't know about it . however I am definitely long on AUD pairs like AUDCAD , AUDUSD and AUDNZD. All are long term trades with huge giant pips involved. Lets see how it turns out for me in a few months.
Leaders don't do different things, but they do the same things differently.
Quoting JollyBean
That's when you know to short the S&P, go long AUD.
Keep on longing ... someone has to take the opposite trade, right ? Don't let the draw down stops u - keep longing the AUD and shorting the S&P till the last penny before someone gives u a call and his name is Margin.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
Quoting Vachus
Keep on longing ... someone has to take the opposite trade, right ? Don't let the draw down stops u - keep longing the AUD and shorting the S&P till the last penny before someone gives u a call and his name is Margin.
lol no doubts
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
Who comes up with this madness, really? If you shorted AUDUSD right now, you'd be shorting at a low, which is quite silly.

AUDUSD is in the most ideal long position it has been in for a good few weeks.
Quoting GDR3k
Who comes up with this madness, really? If you shorted AUDUSD right now, you'd be shorting at a low, which is quite silly don't you agree? AUDUSD is in the most ideal long position it has been in for a good few weeks.
Oh really ? what low exactly ? 2 weeks low, 4 months low , 10 years low, all times new low ... which low your highness is referring too ?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
I do not think they are talking to anyone here and if anyone is interested out of curiosity -----------------> I guess you are still going to have to check for timing etc and fit with style.

What is crucial is that they have nothing over the next man. The calls are being made by dudes just like you with the same basic tools (more or less) as you have and indeed (with more baggage than you got). They lose too just like anyone else -------> the hype they (and others like them) get is simply unfortunate. You can do as well and you got the right to aim to do far better.

Nice One!
Quoting Vachus
Oh really ? what low exactly ? 2 weeks low, 4 months low , 10 years low, all times new low ... which low your highness is referring too ?
Check the 4hour and daily.
Quoting GDR3k
Check the 4hour and daily.
Oh ... 4h! So, when the price reachs ur metatrade timeframe at the bottom that's what you call a " low "! Shit, your dumber then i though.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
I'm just wondering if the people who are short AUD for the long term, are always the same people who think gold will go below 1000.
Quoting Vachus
Oh ... 4h! So, when the price reachs ur metatrade timeframe at the bottom that's what you call a " low "! Shit, your dumber then i though.
Oh my.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.78.89
Quoting Loadedgun
I do not think they are talking to anyone here and if anyone is interested out of curiosity -----------------> I guess you are still going to have to check for timing etc and fit with style.

What is crucial is that they have nothing over the next man. The calls are being made by dudes just like you with the same basic tools (more or less) as you have and indeed (with more baggage than you got). They lose too just like anyone else -------> the hype they (and others like them) get is simply unfortunate. You can do as well and you got the right to...
Well it could be simmilar as with recent BoA statement to sell the E/U

Dont't you remember ?

" Imagine that they very well know what you think. Now they use cheap way to make you think " o yeah, they think I'm stupid, they say to sell so I will buy, they always say opposite to what they do "

Hey, look around, this is so obvious level to sell that they need to make buyers, and how to make them ?
the easiest way is if a MM say " sell " so everybody thinks to do the opposite !
And that is what they want , they want you to buy now "

Castus
AG
Quoting JollyBean
I'm just wondering if the people who are short AUD for the long term, are always the same people who think gold will go below 1000.
Don't believe these conspiracies ... gold is going to 10.000 dollars !
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
0.89 is the low you should be looking at to go long from, or, if we get a solid pin bar from this daily candle over 0.91, then do it from here, but wait for the close first.
Quoting JollyBean
I'm just wondering if the people who are short AUD for the long term, are always the same people who think gold will go below 1000.
If we get good US data and the market feels we may be in for a December taper, then I would not be ruling out a sub $1000 gold price.... as well as a nice correction in SP500 and a further Aussie meltdown.

However, right now the market sees that as only a slim possibility so they are not front running it, which makes it an even more compelling trade with possibly a fantastic risk/reward ratio.

IMO the SP500 bull market is over crowded and needs a reality check. As such, all the market needs is a silly excuse to sell. A strong NFP and anything before that which supports it (such as a lower jobs claims number) could count as a silly excuse. If not an SP500 sell-off, at least a good boost to the USD initially and then followed by a nice 5% to 10% healthy correction in equities.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Regarding the Aussie, I see a retest of 0.9260 in the cards and then back down towards 0.89xx. From there we shall see, but I would not rule out low to mid 0.8x in 2014
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.48.109
QE reflects a totally false economic situation.
First I would like to point out that they said futures.

Second the Oz Finmin (or PM?) has said that they think the AU$ is still too high. There are at least two effective tools which will shove down AU$ if they want to.

Alongside all that AusUsd is below the 62% retracement Sep-01 -> Oct-22 so the chances of a strong up-move looking less likely.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting Guest
QE reflects a totally false economic situation.
<Rant>
QE is not supposed to reflect any economic situation. In fact QE defies economics altogether. What it does reflect is pure manipulation of the natural cyclical nature of economics. A distortion of reality... a farce.
</Rant>
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting Guest
QE reflects a totally false economic situation.
The thing is, it doesn't matter that's the truth.

Whatever the market chooses to believe in, moves the markets.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.25.128
maybe we should get through this mornings data first before deciding that the Fed will rein in money printing just prior to the biggest retail period of the year.
Quoting Guest
maybe we should get through this mornings data first before deciding that the Fed will rein in money printing just prior to the biggest retail period of the year.
A $10 bln taper will do nothing to the economy or the retail shopping season, but what it will do for the mid term is send a signal that the Fed is confident about the economic growth. Yes the markets may initially react in risk aversion mode, or at least it will seem that way, but that will only be like changing gears from 3rd to 4th... a slight slip of speed while the clutch is pressed.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
... a slight slip of speed while the clutch is pressed.

LOL
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.25.128
Am not convinced the Fed is there to shore up markets or has a mission to shore up the real economy.
Any taper will crunch equities and anything that will affect consumer sentiment is the last thing the Fed wishes to screw with.
All the equity markets represent is the cheer leading squad for Fed policies. The Fed knows it and is using it.
Without a rebirth of the US economy the Fed will have to keep swelling the balance sheet to fund the government.
The Fed could care less about having a sound currency, they abhor savers and want consumption.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.48.138
just go long, were in a bull market anway
Until 2nd Jan 2014
The only thing that prevents us from going all in short the S&P following the revelation that Goldman's first revealed top trade of 2014 is to go long the S&P Dec 2014 futures with a target of 2250 and a close below 1855, is that the reco is not from Tom Stolper but his colleague Noah Weisberger whose muppet wipe out record is not quite as prominent. Still, for Goldman clients to buy S&P futs, Goldman has to sell it to them, and as always - do what Goldman does, not what it says.
Quoting JollyBean
That's when you know to short the S&P, go long AUD.
Hahaha "muppet wipe out"
Key of success forever is just go opposite to Goldman
fackman sachs looks like you want to lose another 1 billion quickly
Why would GS & cronies want any of us to make money? They're simply passing disinformation to main street.

My cousin who is a layman when it comes to markets, ~2 years ago told me to buy gold. Gold topped exactly around the time LOL. Ofc, I didn't took his advice seriously, but 20/20 I should have monitored for sell signals. When common people say you should buy this or sell that, then you know there's money to be made doing the opposite.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
Quoting vox dei
... When common people say you should buy this or sell that, then you know there's money to be made doing the opposite.
It is a standard situation. The only fly in the ointment is that some of the MSM are arming themselves with modestly competent economic journos. This means that probably the only reliable opposite signals are going to be found in places like Gardeners World.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
Quoting Vachus
Oh ... 4h! So, when the price reachs ur metatrade timeframe at the bottom that's what you call a " low "! Shit, your dumber then i though.
My oh my, you're an aggressive little Troll aren't you?

Your parents should be ashamed of themselves for raising a little shit that doesn't have an ounce of respect or tolerance towards those that have a different opinion to you.

The very fact that you have absolutely no openness to the possibility that the AUD could go up from here, means (thankfully) you won't be around too long.

I guess you are just another loser that gleans a little self worth from attacking people anonymously and safely from behind your keyboard - shame on you.
I've got my pips - go get yours!
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  • Posted: Nov 25, 2013 7:43am
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 35  /  Views: 7,535