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  • EUR/USD Forecast Oct 28- Nov 1

    From forexcrunch.com

    EUR/USD had an excellent week, breaking decisively to levels last seen in November 2011. Is 1.40 the next target? Or will the common currency take a break now? German retail sales, inflation and employment data, , consumer sentiment in France and Germany and GDP in Spain. Check out these events, on our weekly outlook. Here is an outlook for these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. Weak Non-Farm Payrolls in the US provided the trigger needed for the big breakout. If this is what the US can do without a crisis, things will likely look worse in the following months. However, in the old ... (full story)

Well, this "analysis" narration and statement of various data surely gives a lot of clues and information where the specific pair will be in the end of the week. I think these guys should find some real job and contribute to GDP instead of practicing word scribes.

Here is a simpler explanation - if next week the majority of the market participants consider EUR/USD have potential to go up - they will set long and pair will go up, if they do not consider so - pair will go down. Everything else is just words.

Trading is guessing - set up your guess for up or down next week and search for dip or spike to buy/sell. It is that simple - and you either get good profit, get small loss or get neutral balance for the week.
i agree with you trading is like guessing game , otherwise mathematically know as probability

i not sure why macro & micro economics do not really effect the currency movement which it suppose to do so, maybe a lot of speculative trading.
Quoting michaelpelly
Trading is guessing - set up your guess for up or down next week and search for dip or spike to buy/sell. It is that simple - and you either get good profit, get small loss or get neutral balance for the week.
I beg to disagree completely and absolutely - and did post a view based on a firm understanding that the opposite is true on this very thread last week. In addition, I do not gamble (never been a lucky sort of dude) and therefore would not be in this business had I not found the means to assure growth in returns on a consistent basis. Trading is investing and management of investments across electronically traded markets - albeit and admittedly a highly risky environment. The evidence is also that there are institutions and individuals showing good returns (sometimes even beating the market average) though proportionately few. Therefore with much respect I must disagree. Cheers Nice One1

BTW:I also subscribe to the view (a dictum of sorts) that trading is not for everyone. Unfortunately the aftermarket (brokers, writers, site owners, etc) make a poor job of stressing this fact and while not actively trading themselves tend to promote the view that with discipline anyone can trade (and in that way make and ensure wealth for themselves) but the stats show otherwise and the statistic is the best guide in this case to how tough the call actually is. I thought it was easy too and lost a hell lot and gave up many times and I am only just now coming to grips with the fact that I can make a huge success of it - some 3 or 4 years after opening my first of several burst cash accounts - now it is a calculated decision on my part to trade based on what I know. Nice One 1
Quoting michaelpelly
Here is a simpler explanation - if next week the majority of the market participants consider EUR/USD have potential to go up - they will set long and pair will go up, if they do not consider so - pair will go down. Everything else is just words.
Amazing how simple that is and how many don't understand it. good post. There are ways to get the odds in your favor. That is the best we can do.
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i agree with loadedgun,though i am not a big trader but i have lost a few k$, and i came to understand that,anyone who wants to trade must work on their own strategy with calculation.but it is also confusing sometimes that relying on news also becomes tricky. from last month every news for usd weather +ve or -ve making it weaker.
Quoting jaygee
Amazing how simple that is and how many don't understand it. good post. There are ways to get the odds in your favor. That is the best we can do.
Yep jaygee! I know we gave each other some grief this past week, but it is differing opinions that make a market after all. Ultimately all we are trying to do is buy them cheaper than we sell them, that is all. There is also lot of money management and psychology added to the mix as well. Good luck this week!
Quoting Loadedgun
I beg to disagree completely and absolutely - and did post a view based on a firm understanding that the opposite is true on this very thread last week. In addition, I do not gamble (never been a lucky sort of dude) and therefore would not be in this business had I not found the means to assure growth in returns on a consistent basis. Trading is investing and management of investments across electronically traded markets - albeit and admittedly a highly risky environment. The evidence is also that there are institutions and individuals showing good...
Those who can, do. Those who cannot, write about it...Most of these "journalists" are writing about the markets for a reason.

I do pay attention to many of the articles out there, for a simple reason, as follows. Most traders flame out in the first year. Most traders depend upon the indicators provided to them via their charting software, via their clearing firm (most of which I fade). Lastly, most traders depend (completely) on some other schmuck's interpretation of the market, takes the commentary at face value, without their own due diligence, and places trades as a result - I generally fade this as well...

Cheers
Get ready for the big reversal for euro/usd and will keep going down . May be upto 1.34 by the end of this week
Neither a Bro Nor a Pro I am I
Hold off the fireworks; last Friday, Eurozone's PMIs were bad but EUR/USD went up anyway; nothing goes up forever and EUR/USD should reverse its course but it seems EUR/USD is targeting unknown number, it could be 1.40, 1.50, 1.60 or 1.38(last week), so whatever anybody says is just a guessing game, I am EUR/USD neutral and will start shorting below 1.36...down to 1.32000.
There is always a price for promises you don't keep!
Fundamental Analysis + Technical Analysis + Mental Psychology = Consistency

This might not be the right formula, but whatever i mention on that formula is a compilation of everything that we need to take in consideration in order to have a profitable account balance....Trading is really not simple, but we can make it simpler if we making cases for every trade that we take.....

If you have a Hail Mary mentality, trading is surely not for you, but if you are willing to manage your losses, you will definitely be in the game for a long time....Big Banks and Hedge Fund Managers use Indicators to see what retail traders are seeing, but the fact that those guys have the big Money, they flush us out in a matter of days or hours....It's hard to admit it, but us alone can't move the Market....

Instead of trying to beat the Market, let's decide to be that smart fish that follow the Big Sharks and waiting for the little pieces to eat...(Hypothetically speaking)

In a technical perspective, there's a major Bearish Gartley on EUR/USD weekly chart, and that D-Leg Completion is near 1.45ish...There's no way it's gonna get there so quick, but if we take all the resistance levels in consideration, we can play all the ups and downs waves.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
Analysts write to earn money, the good ones working for a retail broker will be earning €50k per year, that's why the do it, that's 50 grand more than 99% of FF members make a year. The good ones can also trade, maybe they choose not to, maybe they're discouraged, perhaps they're prevented doing so by their firm, but being close to the action they'll also know the stats and know that for the most part retail trading is a mugs game were 99% fail.

Quoting pippiphooray
Those who can, do. Those who cannot, write about it...Most of these \"journalists\" are writing about the markets for a reason.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
I strong euro is not good for most countries in europe!! becarful with that long up analisies!
depend on Fomc . Good luck all .
"for the most part retail trading is a mugs game were 99% fail. "
I guess we've moved on from 95% narrative
Perhaps it needs further qualification, over 99% fail to make a living out of the industry they think actually exists, a small percent do ok as part time gamblers, like those who sports bet.

Quoting backinblackl
\"for the most part retail trading is a mugs game were 99% fail. \"
I guess we've moved on from 95% narrative
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting satish37
Get ready for the big reversal for euro/usd and will keep going down . May be upto 1.34 by the end of this week
Lets talk about that by your 35th post assumming you make a post each trade day on average. In the meanwhile please do not trade cash just yet. Cheers
Quoting michaelpelly
Here is a simpler explanation - if next week the majority of the market participants consider EUR/USD have potential to go up - they will set long and pair will go up, if they do not consider so - pair will go down. Everything else is just words.
This assumes that all currency movements are due to speculation and/or day traders.
1.3833 yearly pivot line is a good trigger for me.

O dear, after these months of absence I would have thought the LG puffer is long gone since he STATED and QUOTED in July 2013 he ain't coming back...... Guess his monthly subscribers have dwindled down for the past 3 months that he is back for more noobs?
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Quoting jonathanhk
1.3833 yearly pivot line is a good trigger for me.

O dear, after these months of absence I would have thought the LG puffer is long gone since he STATED and QUOTED in July 2013 he ain't coming back...... Guess his monthly subscribers have dwindled down for the past 3 months that he is back for more noobs?
But you said his call on that time will not work and it did - you forget?
Quoting Guest
But you said his call on that time will not work and it did - you forget?
How many times did it worked is the question???? If I blindfold myself and throw 500 balls into the air in a room, I'm bound to catch one. That's the re-invented chaos for you. Ain't going waste my time arguing with you on this - I got trades to do. IF you wish just carry on to pay and follow that chap, good luck.

Learn to respect your fellow trader man - NO one theory works for Forex, otherwise everyone will be billionaires!!!
Clearly one of the most troublesome thoughts for a trader is why price moves (though understanding how it moves is a better starting point). Many lean on fundamentals because it describes in prose a picture that satisfies that quandary (since it would justify a bet one way or another). They like to think in terms of FOMC, or Drgahi said etc.

Nice but really immaterial - simply think of pivots. Pivots? What has that got to do with reason? Is it not what they talk about in "technicals" in very abstract terms? No I would rather wait and hear what Bernanke got to say.

Well a pivot is nothing the technical people know about in the terms I am about to discuss with anyone who cares. A pivot is a microeconomic indicator on charts - it indicates market clearing price points. These are the points where supply and demand equate and the market clears at that price. Once that happens price must turn. Why? Because there are no more deals possible beyond that point. Therefore if it is a down pivot price will fall and continue falling until it reaches another point of equilibrium below and vice versa if it is an up pivot - and this has nothing do with what Bernanke says or does not say but everything do with how the market works as system across all the events and myriad of other factors it takes into consideration to establish price.

Well that makes sense what you say but how is that more justified than fundamentals? Does fundamentals not relate to macroeconomics you ask? Well for one thing this is in the books and fundamentals is not taught in economics in the sense in which it is applied to trading. Macroeconomics does not suggest anything that fundamental traders use as a means for reaching the dubious conclusions they reach. But microeconomics teaches the market clearing model and explains how price moves and why. So while fundamentals is for those who are unschooled in economics and its application what I am telling you is for the exact opposite type of people. Well but how does that help me directly you ask?

Well understanding that and modeling the market appropriately makes you more proactive and better assured of reading the market with a high degree of accuracy - because whatever the reason shy market players enter trades the result will reflect in the balance of supply and demand. Offers and bids matched to a clearing point and at which point the market must turn - so knowing and assessing the reason is not only an exercise in voodoo since you cannot tell (why millions of different entities buy and sell an article at any given time) but a waste of time and it is better to think in terms of turning points as explained above. Read the market clearing model - a subject in economics and think about what we are saying here. what a laugh
  • Comment #22
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  • Edited Oct 29, 2013 3:30am Oct 28, 2013 6:24am | Edited Oct 29, 2013 3:30am
BTW: We think (like many other people) that 1.38322 is a clearing price and that price should fall in retrace. But do not forget if this happens that it would be happening in a market that overall is in a strong drive up with little space for corrective action down and therefore be prepared to find strong reaction downside. In other words, expect that on retrace and once a clearing point is reached the money backing the drive up is so severe as to propel price at considerable momentum up and we might hit my targets this week. Just a thought. Nice One1

BTW: Part of the problem in trading this type of market is that price action is usually one direction and it is better really to dump an order or orders up and go on holiday or something. Trying to trade a trending market like a ranging market is difficult sometimes to the point of impossibility. For instance if you are able to use the correct fractal primitive to measure the retrace so far on H4 (the intraday cycle) you will find (with appropriate scaling) that price already reached FE 100 (Fibonacci numbers are a chaotic series but you must know the math implied to use them correctly and technical analysis uses them blindly so it is for them more of a hit or miss game). So do not be surprised to see price suddenly spike through the current high on its way to higher grounds seemingly without notice Nice One1 My strategy then still remains the same (buy dips) and for those yet to enter this is the problem it can be tricky finding a place on a tour bus that is overbooked What a laugh
Pivots has nothing to do in the likes of the chaos smoked mackerel above - cos I don't think you know how to trade at pivot lines at all - just hold on tight to the chaos crystal ball that Bill WIlliam came out with but now re-invented. Discrediting everybody else......just cling on to the holy smoking mackerel and get more monthly subscribers, aka noobs. Am sure there are plenty of noobs for you to fish. Good luck.

Still surprise FF allows such smoking mackerel to advertise their holy grail modelling technique - mmmm whats new in this model? I have written the MT4 for this chaos re-invention - so big deal??????!!!!
Quoting Loadedgun
BTW: We think (like many other people) that 1.38322 is a clearing price and that price should fall in retrace.
Wow the much advertised smoking mackerel chaos model only allows one to THINK and cannot read a chart at all? That's amazing lol
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I would say that trading is not a kind of ""POKER""

From my 13 years experience, I should say that all factors that have been influencing so far have a very beautiful relationship with each other no matter whether it is fundamental based or technical based. For example, technical analysis mostly shows the new direction or future movements that is anticipated from fundamental point of view.

Try to use fibo tools and theory of wave analysis.
Or apply the Ichimoku clouds with MACD and MAs.

These two ways give you 90% of true prediction
Quoting Guest
I would say that trading is not a kind of \"\"POKER\"\"

. For example, technical analysis mostly shows the new direction or future movements that is anticipated from fundamental point of view.

Try to use fibo tools and theory of wave analysis.
Or apply the Ichimoku clouds with MACD and MAs.

These two ways give you 90% of true prediction

I am using MACD too. But the question cross or not cross. That the most difficulties for me.... to reading and combine with the elliot wave analysis........
All the majors are ranging within around 20 pip range during NY session....what gives. Everyone waiting for ADP?
Quoting Guest
I would say that trading is not a kind of \"\"POKER\"\"

From my 13 years experience, I should say that all factors that have been influencing so far have a very beautiful relationship with each other no matter whether it is fundamental based or technical based. For example, technical analysis mostly shows the new direction or future movements that is anticipated from fundamental point of view.

Try to use fibo tools and theory of wave analysis.
Or apply the Ichimoku clouds with MACD and MAs.

These two ways give you 90% of true prediction...
Indicators are a waste of time until you have a theory of the market (the reason why the market works the way it works) then fitting out a set of tools to guide you through that thinking each time you trade makes sense Nice One 1

BTW: Most folk come in to trade the market based on how indicators read the market and that could also be akin to voodoo.
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