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  • EURUSD Outlook Week of June 9, 2013: 4 Things to Consider

    From thesensibleguidetoforex.com

    EURUSD Outlook: Short term neutral/bullish, longer term bearish The main long term EURUSD driver Reasons behind recent EURUSD rally Technical Picture Coming week likely EURUSD drivers and what makes them influential Longer term the USD outlook remains bullish as long as the Fed continues to appear hawkish relative to the ECB, BoJ, BoE, RBA, and other leading central banks. Belief that the Fed was indeed the only one moving towards a meaningful tightening has been the fuel of the USD rally. Other considerations were short term or minor. Over the past week, that longer term USD rally has been undermined by a variety of ... (full story)

Having updated and explained this original post below (i.e. post #16 - without varying my basic position or take on the Euro) I have decided to take this fisrt post out. PaulAmbrose (and others) should please look at my response below and I hope he is better informed by that as to why we update our view of the future over time in chaotic trading.

BTW: Since most technical and fundamental traders are not really able to trade Gold to any effect using those approaches I reserve details of our projections for that commodity.
You sound like a politician....

Last week you said 1.330 and then down to 1.27. Now this week you are changing it to "the next objective 1.34800"?

Its clear that you are just playing a giant range and scaling back your
stops as the price moves out of range.
I think Loadedgun said the EUD was on the way to 134 about a month ago just before the drop of 400 pips, Big stops for sure...
Quoting surfbeach253
I think Loaded gun said the EUD was on the way to 134 about a month ago just before the drop of 400 pips, Big stops for sure...
No, no

LG has already assured us it is beyond question he can pick market turning points to within +/- 1 pip.

Please check your information for you most certainly must be mistaken.

lol...
Come with me if you want to live....
Thanks for the advice, a check just revealed the target was 1.34334 not 134 sorry...

Loadedgun 3 May 13 "By the way with all pivots in on release - I still say we are going up - 5% chance I am wrong, i.e. we are still on target to move on to 1.34334 which shows why fundamentals is noise in direction (NID) "
Quoting Ill-b-back
No, no

LG has already assured us it is beyond question he can pick market turning points to within +/- 1 pip.

Please check your information for you most certainly must be mistaken.

lol...
He said that, really? hahaha, his opinion came from messy, passing through chaos and now humoristic.

LG makes me laugh at all his post.
Quoting ssshhhh
He said that, really? hahaha, his opinion came from messy, passing through chaos and now humoristic.

LG makes me laugh at all his post.
Fortunately, I am now blind to all of his disruptive posts about chaos since I come in here to read and comment on news items.
His selfish persistence in disrupting the news section with his chaos talk convinced me to simply put him on ignore.

It's something I highly recommend

Oh, and yes he did say he can pick the market to within +- 1 pip and if he tells anyone any different, he is lying.
Come with me if you want to live....
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looking at where he put the 100% fib line make me ... arrghh.. is he trying to fit the 61.8% line to this week high.. argghhh..
Looking at Friday's H4 chart it seems Eur ran out of steam and with a crossover on short period ma's already in place, chances are good Eur will slip south at opening.

The MACD made a significant downward bend from a very steep run-up to current levels.

AND the monthly chart is bearish in more than one way.
Is there a way to reply to directly to each comment? don't see a reply button anywhere?
re: comment #1: I'm a long term trader, so fundies matter more. also use my fx work as support for other investing activities in which fundies matter
anyone see Mauldin articles on JPY? worth reading. see Mauldineconomics. Here's one:http://www.businessinsider.com/mauldin-mortgage-in-yen-2013-6
you can find rest at Mauldineconomics.com.

considering best currency to use to buy against JPY as JPY short. Ideas? this if for multi- month position
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Quoting Cliff Wachtel
Is there a way to reply to directly to each comment? don't see a reply button anywhere?
Just click on "Quote" of that certain comment.
Quoting PaulAmbrose
You sound like a politician....

Last week you said 1.330 and then down to 1.27. Now this week you are changing it to "the next objective 1.34800"?

Its clear that you are just playing a giant range and scaling back your
stops as the price moves out of range.
Actually the way I trade is pretty unique and not based on the thinking you have expressed which I assume comes from a background in technical trading.

Well here is what I really think. The Euro is headed to 1.34800 immediately. On open however like Gold it will decline and in its specific case this decline should see the 1.31 handle in the short-term. On any bounce from that area the Euro will make the suggested target later in the week. Ultimately though a rising Euro at this time should not turn and decline until we see 1.37.

However, while chaos is a science that explains the workings of non linear systems (such as the market) it is also one that cautions against long-term predictions. So the approach (while incredibly precise) should be seen as one encouraging greater caution about long-term predictions than disciplines ignorant of the dynamics of non linear systems (disciplines such as fundamental and technical analysis). Fundamental analysis most especially is really a casino type mentality by an alternative name and should be completely dismissed as a rational trading approach (based on the postulates of chaos). Those inclined to technical analysis on the other hand would fare better in my opinion so long as they accept the 50/50 nature of that application. A chaotic or non linear systems approach would be the most logical approach for trading the markets.

The proper practice in chaos therefore (much like in meteorology) is to update predictions as we go and not to engage in the wild (and often baseless) claims of the practitioners of fundamental analysis (in terms of projecting market rates into the future). The market and the weather are very similar in that they are chaotic systems and we are aware that while near term weather forecasts are spot on – longer term predictions are somewhat less reliable. To that end I had long before now forecasted 1.33/34 with 1.37 to follow (scaling back from a 1.4 prediction late last year). The Euro on any turn from its current medium to long-term direction should head for the 1.27 handle. However, what we should take out of this is really very simple the near term range of 1.31 – 1.34800.

I sincerely hope this clears up some of the ignorance expressed in many of the comments relating to my original post – which merely took the latitude allowed by the practice in the more pervasive but far less informed trading disciplines of fundamental and technical analysis on the assumption that practitioners are in any case given to gambling type predictions since they know no better. But since some here have shown a desire to understand my basis I feel quite happy to explain as I have above.

Cheers
I think , according to the basic & technical analyses , eur/usd is going up to 1.42 in the 3 coming months
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You are an educated person in my obsesrvation regardless of confusion chaos you speak relentless

with humility and without intent to patronize , I want to remind you Gold and Euro have correlation but they do not always move together . I took time to write this because I notice you treat or expect Gold to make same trip with euro several times. I must not foget to say thank you to forecast you made though I trade with my own way

Thanks in advance
Quoting Guest
You are an educated person in my obsesrvation regardless of confusion chaos you speak relentless

with humility and without intent to patronize , I want to remind you Gold and Euro have correlation but they do not always move together . I took time to write this because I notice you treat or expect Gold to make same trip with euro several times. I must not foget to say thank you to forecast you made though I trade with my own way

Thanks in advance
The term chaos is colloquial for non linear systems which has technical application in several areas including reading the weather, etc. It is not to be confused with its everyday meaning and actually deals with how things work in non linear environments (see #16). It is in our view and based on our experience the only rational way to trade the markets with consistently high returns. As you may have guessed I do not make that assertion with levity and to further prove its mettle we are working with at least three friends met right here in FF from whom you should start hearing soon about the incredible impact it makes on trading. It is however, highly mathematical and not as intellectually accessible as the more mundane and ineffective trading approaches of fundamentals and technicals which no doubt accounts for over 95% of approaches in retail and ensures the same level or failure rate in the same group of traders - if the statistics from brokers is to be believed. Cheers
  • Comment #19
  • Quote
  • Edited Jun 10, 2013 5:30am Jun 9, 2013 5:10pm | Edited Jun 10, 2013 5:30am
For instance the Euro just opened with a drop to about 1.31800 which you can compare with our readings in post #16 and we are certain of further down action before we rise. As for Gold - I am not assuming anything we map and trade the currencies and commodities we trade with extreme precision in chaos and do not worry about the old ladies tales that make up much of fundamentals and technicals. In fact I did mention in post #1 a reluctance to bring Gold up since the two common disciplines simply are incompetent to trade Gold (outside pure gambles with chance outcomes that are sometimes positive). Cheers
Big gap aud/usd 100 points now some body say some thing
Quoting Loadedgun
The term chaos is colloquial for non linear systems which has technical application in several areas including reading the weather, etc. It is not to be confused with its everyday meaning and actually deals with how things work in non linear environments (see #16). It is in our view and based on our experience the only rational way to trade the markets with consistently high returns. As you may have guessed I do not make that assertion easily and to further prove its mettle we are working with at least three friends met right here in FF from whom...
You bang on about chaos and fractal, but unless you say something more specific, it is meaning less to everyone, what I don't understand is if you do not want to share the specifics why bring it up and go on about it? I for one would like to know what you mean by chaos and Factal approach.

Lets start from very basics:

Definition of chaos is very loose and vague, even to a mathematician it is enough to say chaos is a dynamical system that depends very sensitively to initial conditions.

As for fractals, loosely these are self similar structures occuring at all scale with fractal dimension that does not have to be intergers.

Anyway, can we go from these definitions?
Quoting CoolJL

Anyway, can we go from these definitions?
You are spot on with your definitions and therefore the rest is easy for you. Be reminded that this is the news section for views and comments and certainly no place to start a basics class. It is like trying to teach or describe technical analysis or fundamental analysis here and now. Which you might agree would not be the best.

I am not going on about anything in as much as you would not consider fundamentalists and or technicalists as going on about their approaches. I mention it to assure distinction between my views and those based on the former trite disciplines. Cheers
Quoting Bakker
Looking at Friday's H4 chart it seems Eur ran out of steam and with a crossover on short period ma's already in place, chances are good Eur will slip south at opening.

The MACD made a significant downward bend from a very steep run-up to current levels.

AND the monthly chart is bearish in more than one way.
But that is a very short-term take as far as the non - monthly charts go. You can take it to the bank the Euro is phased up even on the monthly (we use an approch focused on cycles and phases of cycles and the unitary or monthly cycle is phased up). Of course it depends on the term structure of your investments in the pair. But for quite a while to come (please refer to post #1) we are sure of a rising Euro. Cheers
Quoting Loadedgun
You are spot on with your definitions and therefore the rest is easy for you.
That's far from the case, study of chaos and fractals are usually analysing these systems and structures and there are, with any analysis, many different ways of doing it, and many different aspect you can study. So again if you aren't specific as to the analysis of these then again it doesn't give me, or anyone who doesn't know about it, any joy.
Quoting CoolJL
That's far from the case, study of chaos and fractals are usually analysing these systems and structures and there are, with any analysis, many different ways of doing it, and many different aspect you can study. So again if you aren't specific as to the analysis of these then again it doesn't give me, or anyone who doesn't know about it, any joy.
Listen bro I am at a loss as to what you expect from me. For instance each monthly bar (e.g. the current monthly bar) contains the entire expressions (in terms of the current range) of the pair seen in all time frames to the left of the monthly time frame. Self-similarity and non integral dimension should hit you at once as a mathematician (insofar as for instance time frames are concerned and as with time frames price bars). I am sure you can take it from there. I have referred you to posts #1 and #16 which is why we are talking chaos and fractals at all. What is it in those posts that you wish for me to explain? In addition, my point is that I have not the time and space to start any form of explanations and not right here and now. If however you are curious as to my specific take on the subjects kindly go through my past posts one by one and I assure you I have made enough explanations in the past to keep me from repeating any of that now. So really the ball is in your court since my past posts are on record. Cheers
What i haven't figured out yet is why anyone bothers with all this nonsense as most everyone knows it is a ruse and does not work. It can't be checked or analyzed because it doesn't really exist but it can cause controversy and drama so have at it. That seems productive. bro
Quoting Loadedgun
Listen bro I am at a loss as to what you expect from me. For instance each monthly bar (e.g. the current monthly bar) contains the entire expressions (in terms of the current range) of the pair seen in all time frames to the left of the monthly time frame. Self-similarity and non integral dimension should hit you at once as a mathematician (insofar as for instance time frames are concerned and as with time frames price bars). I am sure you can take it from there. I have referred you to posts #1 and #16 which is why we are talking chaos and fractals...
Just want to understand what your approach is, that's all, by that I mean how you are trying to predict price. From what you are saying about chaos, you only projecting short term price point and from what you are saying about fractals, you are looking at all time periods for similar patterns? By the way I did not think to look back at your past posts, so I'll do that.
  • Comment #28
  • Quote
  • Edited Jun 10, 2013 5:10am Jun 9, 2013 6:14pm | Edited Jun 10, 2013 5:10am
Quoting CoolJL
Just want to understand what your approach is, that's all, by that I mean how you are trying to predict price. From what you are saying about chaos, you only projecting short term price point and from what you are saying about fractals, you are looking at all time periods for similar patterns? By the way I did not think to look back at your past posts, so I'll do that.
Absolutely incorrect we have nothing to do with patterns that is the realm of trite disciplines. If you look at a post above I mention cycles and phases of cycles - think "sine waves" and you will start getting the hang of my approach. Price orders hit the market in waves and price behaves much line sine waves do. So we are interested to measure and trade instantaneous momentum. The fact that the market is a fractal structure implies the market can be scaled so think in terms of the power law in math and therefore scale-invariance (a property of fractals) and then consider what scaling would imply dynamically. So to start this discussion would be long indeed - but we do not submit to the superstitions and voodoo that fundamentals imply and none of the hit or miss type theories in technicals so it has to be pure math and physics. The two points I make in this post and given you are a mathematician should give you a good lead. While someone is talking trend line I am talking amplitude - get it?

Also 1.34 is not short-term and we do not scalp since we track price precisely. Consider doing so as a matter of solving Pythagoras theorem. Start by considering that we have price triangles if we define a price fractal as a construct of transactionally defined pivot points such as buy - sell - buy points. Say then we have an ABC triangle and AB is in place. To solve for Pythagoras crudely we find a way of solving for now or the turning point at B and the rest is easy.
Quoting Loadedgun
Absolutely incorrect I have nothing to do with patterns that is the realm of trite disciplines. If you look at a post above I mention cycles and phases of cycles - think "sine waves" and you will start getting the hang of my approach. Price orders hit the market in waves and price behaves much line sine waves do. So we are interested to measure and trade instantaneous momentum. The fact that the market is a fractal structure implies the market can be scaled so think in terms of the power law in math and therefore scale-invariance (a property of...
Why didn't you say this earlier, now you make more sense. By the way I'm not an mathematician, studied physics rather, but had to get into a bit of dynamical systems. Many thanks.
Quoting CoolJL
Why didn't you say this earlier, now you make more sense. By the way I'm not an mathematician, studied physics rather, but had to get into a bit of dynamical systems. Many thanks.
Well because why has a long tail (if you know what I mean). I have said this same things over and over on this site so many times I am tired of repeating them and that is why I said - look at my past posts. Anyhow interesting talking to you.

Cheers
Quoting jaygee
What i haven't figured out yet is why anyone bothers with all this nonsense as most everyone knows it is a ruse and does not work. It can't be checked or analyzed because it doesn't really exist but it can cause controversy and drama so have at it. That seems productive. bro
Quoting CoolJL
Why didn't you say this earlier, now you make more sense. By the way I'm not an mathematician, studied physics rather, but had to get into a bit of dynamical systems. Many thanks.
I guess jaygee is just plain wrong about most things in life - not just where price is headed. LOL
He ties himself up in more knots than Houdini but fails to escape any of them. Look, all he does is copy and paste bits and pieces he's picked up regarding Bill Williams chaos trading BS. Bill was a NLP psychoanalyst who turned to mugging people off with some crackpot theory back in the mid nineties. What this other crackpot is trying to do is put his own sad spin on it and take ownership. DON'T FEED THE TROLL

Quoting CoolJL
You bang on about chaos and fractal, but unless you say something more specific, it is meaning less to everyone, what I don't understand is if you do not want to share the specifics why bring it up and go on about it? I for one would like to know what you mean by chaos and Factal approach.

Lets start from very basics:

Definition of chaos is very loose and vague, even to a mathematician it is enough to say chaos is a dynamical system that depends very sensitively to initial conditions.

As for fractals, loosely these are self similar structures...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • Comment #33
  • Quote
  • Edited Jun 10, 2013 5:13am Jun 9, 2013 7:04pm | Edited Jun 10, 2013 5:13am
Quoting CoolJL

Definition of chaos is very loose and vague, even to a mathematician it is enough to say chaos is a dynamical system that depends very sensitively to initial conditions.
However, CoolJL since you at least understand me (whereas few others do) I might mention that the definition is not vague if you consider that the very fact of extreme sensitivity to initial conditions qualifies a system in a way that completely excludes certain methods from reading and projecting its dynamics. Indeed it implies that deterministic models and algos must fail - in this case fundamentals is a chief culprit and it shows either the intellectual destitution of its proponents in trading and or their intellectual dishonesty in proposing a method that by definition does not apply. Furthermore consider the cost (especially to noobs) of that fraud (since I doubt fundamentals is promoted out of ignorance) and then you begin to understand my "loud" campaign - not to mention I was a victim initially of that kind of hopelessness.
Quoting Spreadbetter
He ties himself up in more knots than Houdini but fails to escape any of them. Look, all he does is copy and paste bits and pieces he's picked up regarding Bill Williams chaos trading BS. Bill was a NLP psychoanalyst who turned to mugging people off with some crackpot theory back in the mid nineties. What this other crackpot is trying to do is put his own sad spin on it and take ownership. DON'T FEED THE TROLL
Wrong again - very wrong. What a laugh
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I usually come here to get the proper perspective as to how to position. Having read much of the bullish mood on eurusd, I have decided to short and will be targeting the 1.2050 level on long term. It is my considered opinion based on what I observe that we could reach that level on or before August. I will continue to short any short term rallies until 1.34 is completely flustered. That would mean a Day/ Week close above it.
Good luck longing, buyers. It sure looks a great time to make money on eurusd.
All the doubters and especially the haters should know that you all will eat your words !
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Quoting Guest
I usually come here to get the proper perspective as to how to position. Having read much of the bullish mood on eurusd, I have decided to short and will be targeting the 1.2050 level on long term. It is my considered opinion based on what I observe that we could reach that level on or before August. I will continue to short any short term rallies until 1.34 is completely flustered. That would mean a Day/ Week close above it.
Good luck longing, buyers. It sure looks a great time to make money on eurusd.
It is you who will need the luck.
Lots of it. :/
Quoting Spreadbetter
He ties himself up in more knots than Houdini but fails to escape any of them.
Speaking seriously it is clear that chaotic trading is not for everyone because unlike the trite disciplines of fundamentals and technicals it is not as intellectually accessible (which trite disciplines are both linear in outlook and therefore one and the same thing insofar as chaos is concerned).

For instance the conversation between me and CoolJL is what you refer to in your post under reference. And it is clear you (and your like minded friend jaygee) were quick to jump to the wrong conclusions because what we were discussing was beyond your comprehension. Yet to a physicist it made sense. So this is the point. While the industry has promoted the trite disciplines to enable a large pool of losers those disciplines in fact are useless for especially retail trading. Unfortunately for retail traders like you what works requires more than is demanded by the trite disciplines.

So the lesson here is unless you are in the intellectual bracket it is easy conclude (like you and the hapless jaygee) that chaos is something other than it is understood to be by science. You for instance thinks we are talking about Bill Jordan or whatever the name of the chap is which is in fact a sad statement about how far removed you are from our reality - we think Bill Jordan or William or whatever you called was in fact only slightly better than you are in his comprehension of chaos and fractals. He made an effort no doubt but what we now know about the subject is way beyond his comprehension. Please try then to understand that it is ignorance on your parts rather than any exoticism on ours that leaves you both locked out of our discussion and meaning - and a firm instance of this outside looking inside situation is in your inability to comprehend a word between me and CoolJL in our discuss.

Cheers
What is that, some sort of religious proclamation?

Quoting Fx Hiflyer
All the doubters and especially the haters should know that you all will eat your words !
Quoting Squeeze
What is that, some sort of religious proclamation?
Sounds more like confidence borne out of a revealing experience and I happen to agree very much with the view expressed. It is prophetic so you cannot realize it at this time being the outsider you are. Why do you think we use RIP thanks in advance? But like all persons that become a statistic you will come to understand it ONLY when it is too late. RIP thanks in advance
Quoting Squeeze
What is that, some sort of religious proclamation?
haha have you lost it completely ? .....i don't need to talk the talk because the guy always in limelight has helped me to walk his walk .....so you talk the talk while i'l walk the walk
Quoting Fx Hiflyer
wth....how do we make that cool smiley...i feel so cool
this is the code buddy.
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  • Posted: Jun 9, 2013 2:47am
  • Submitted by:
     Cliff Wachtel
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 42  /  Views: 9,150