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Suspending belief - wait to buy the dollar
A clash of fundamentals, key events this week and massive stop-loss positions will trigger a further surge in currency volatility. Buying the dollar on dips remains the most attractive option by far given the medium-term outlook, but patience remains a key requirement given the risk of a shorter-term correction weaker for the over-bought currency. The argument for further longer-term dollar strength remains compelling. In relative terms, the US economy will continue to out-perform on growth and the structural position is improving sharply as shale oil boosts competitiveness and continues to improve the trade account. ... (full story)
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