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  • EU economy – slowly recovering from protracted recession

    From europa.eu

    Following the recession that marked 2012, the EU economy is expected to stabilise in the first half of 2013. GDP growth is projected to turn positive gradually in the second half of the year before gaining some traction in 2014. As domestic demand is still constrained by a number of impediments that are typical of the aftermath of deep financial crises, external demand is set to be the main growth driver this year. The headwinds on private consumption and investment are expected to abate gradually, making way for a modest domestically sustained recovery next year. This forecast remains based on the assumption that ... (full story)

bullshit
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.134.3
Quoting Orion602
bullshit

It may be bullshit, but euro stays strong. Trust your charts and don't let emotion get in the way.
Unemployment to increase up to 11%, domestic investment and consumption are low and Economy is RECOVERING
That's the instinct but what if it's correct, what if the ECB has played a blinder and navigated the EU and EA through this storm to arrive at a point whereby Europe, in particular the really weak states, can begin to improve and develop? Whatever our pre-conceptions and beliefs they may have cracked it without resorting to the creation of more 'marketable' debt in the form of Eurobonds thereby forcing the euro to parity with the USD..

Quoting Orion602
bullshit
  •  Guest
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Quoting Squeeze
That's the instinct but what if it's correct, what if the ECB has played a blinder and navigated the EU and EA through this storm to arrive at a point whereby Europe, in particular the really weak states, can begin to improve and develop? Whatever our pre-conceptions and beliefs they may have cracked it without resorting to the creation of more 'marketable' debt in the form of Eurobonds thereby forcing the euro to parity with the USD..

parity with the USD? hehehe thanks for that...I like your humor.
John Taylor over at FX Concepts,http://www.fx-concepts.com/chairmansview.php Sorros, I could give you a long list of USA policy leaning luminaries who not only want it (for obvious reasons) but believe it'd provide a fantastic trading boost to the Eurozone.

Quoting Guest
parity with the USD? hehehe thanks for that...I like your humor.
Sad - most sad that people are forced to trade the market reactively by believing the crap that fund-a-mentals or news define trends when in fact a mix of factors better defined by for instance what is called a market clearing model in economics explains all. What is painful of course is with such understanding a trader is far better off. Sad indeed. News is noise in direction - trends define price phases similar to what you get in sine waves - once a phase is on there is no stopping it - period (menses).
"As domestic demand is still constrained by a number of impediments that are typical of the aftermath of deep financial crises"

This is all about fear. With unemployment, besides the lack of purchasing power, it does not encourage industry to develop and offer new products.
Weak demand because of the fear of unemployment, the high debt and the low-income of the population.
Interesting points. According to many sources sales channels have been stuffed by the likes of Merc, BMW, Renault therefore they'll have to slash prices to increase pull through demand.


Quoting ssshhhh
"As domestic demand is still constrained by a number of impediments that are typical of the aftermath of deep financial crises"

This is all about fear. With unemployment, besides the lack of purchasing power, it does not encourage industry to develop and offer new products.
Weak demand because of the fear of unemployment, the high debt and the low-income of the population.
And when EU goes to parity then the UK will change its mind and join the Amero pound. What a constructive debate to enhance your trading decisions and what a beautiful investment of time...

If you want a forum-pub to chit chat your NWO planning fears along with your pint try zerohedge or even Alex Jones site. But if you want to contribute just point a direction out of your approach and let the market prove your worth as a trader and as a contributor.
Don't Fight Forces, Use Them.
Quoting Squeeze
Interesting points. According to many sources sales channels have been stuffed by the likes of Merc, BMW, Renault therefore they'll have to slash prices to increase pull through demand.
Do not reduce it only to cars. Each segment is reacting differently ..
When I say fear, I'm talking about the lack of money supply. Let's be honest, what is the most efficient and fast in this situation?
Printing money. I know that this debate is one that never ends with a different point of views, but with this, civil anarchist will end, people and companies will have money to put economic in the track again.

"A growing country needs a growing money supply, always."
Summoned from the depths another ghoul arrives. Where was the mention of the Amero, or NWO fears? Are they yours?

Quoting Timetraveler
And when EU goes to parity then the UK will change its mind and join the Amero pound. What a constructive debate to enhance your trading decisions and what a beautiful investment of time...

If you want a forum-pub to chit chat your NWO planning fears along with your pint try zerohedge or even Alex Jones site. But if you want to contribute just point a direction out of your approach and let the market prove your worth as a trader and as a contributor.
I was using certain manufacturers as an easy to follow example rather than use, for example BASF or confine the example to mainly Germany. The lack of money supply is not the issue and is a red herring given that the increased supply would never trickle down, we're still in the situation were banks may need further bailouts, it was never about country-wide bailouts the bailouts of various PIIGS have been to protect banks and their inter party relationships.

Quoting ssshhhh
Do not reduce it only to cars. Each segment is reacting differently ..
When I say fear, I'm talking about the lack of money supply. Let's be honest, what is the most efficient and fast in this situation?
Printing money. I know that this debate is one that never ends with a different point of views, but with this, civil anarchist will end, people and companies will have money to put economic in the track again.

"A growing country needs a growing money supply, always."
Quoting Timetraveler
And when EU goes to parity then the UK will change its mind and join the Amero pound. What a constructive debate to enhance your trading decisions and what a beautiful investment of time...

If you want a forum-pub to chit chat your NWO planning fears along with your pint try zerohedge or even Alex Jones site. But if you want to contribute just point a direction out of your approach and let the market prove your worth as a trader and as a contributor.
LOL
Sorry but I see the heart of the problem only on consumption and M3.
M3 supply in the eurozone is not in continuous growth like 2000 to 2008. We are seeing that after 2008, countries, companies and people are extremely wary, speaking in general consumption.
What is strange is that assuming all this crap talk street economics makes sense - the Euro had been rising since yesterday after hitting the 1.30400 level - would any rational mind then associate this fact with any of these dim witted comments? Especially when it will not exceed the target amplitude of 1.34334 to start it's reversal well below any low point seen in the last four years? Some folks don't get it - and never will. What a laugh
Quoting Loadedgun
What is strange is that assuming all this crap talk street economics makes sense - the Euro had been rising since yesterday after hitting the 1.30400 level - would any rational mind then associate this fact with any of these dim witted comments? Especially when it will not exceed the target amplitude of 1.34334 to start it's reversal well below any low point seen in the last four years? Some folks don't get it - and never will. What a laugh

if i was you..i wouldve left them in their misery a long time ago.................look at the way they keep on talking about pointless shit ...rephrasing the same shit they read and try to act so big....2% account growth..5 % account growth.........what bullshit..they make me sick................as a noob i can tell that all of this shit is not what people here want to know(and mostly people here are noobs)....and it is of no help anyway...........which is the reason why people come.........i have news feed on my twitter and everywhere else....i get some of these articles long before they even get posted on ff..
Quoting Loadedgun
What is strange is that assuming all this crap talk street economics makes sense - the Euro had been rising since yesterday after hitting the 1.30400 level - would any rational mind then associate this fact with any of these dim witted comments? Especially when it will not exceed the target amplitude of 1.34334 to start it's reversal well below any low point seen in the last four years? Some folks don't get it - and never will. What a laugh
We are not here trying to find a motive in the news for buy or sell a currency.
I think you're not having common sense, we are talking about the subject and not on how to succeed in trades we must pay attention to S / R or focus only on fundamental analysis.

Facepalm: You have more than 3 post per day, and none of that post you are discussing something, just trying to assert your trade style, distorting topics and talking trash about people.
Quoting ssshhhh
We are not here trying to find a motive in the news for buy or sell a currency.
I think you're not having common sense, we are talking about the subject and not on how to succeed in trades we must pay attention to S / R or focus only on fundamental analysis.

Facepalm: You have more than 3 post per day, and none of that post you are discussing something, just trying to assert your trade style, distorting topics and talking trash about people.


okai there!
Quoting ssshhhh
We are not here trying to find a motive in the news for buy or sell a currency.
I think you're not having common sense, we are talking about the subject and not on how to succeed in trades we must pay attention to S / R or focus only on fundamental analysis.

Facepalm: You have more than 3 post per day, and none of that post you are discussing something, just trying to assert your trade style, distorting topics and talking trash about people.
Actually I am not trying to assert my trade style - merely (1) pointing out to newbees and other open minded folk the hocus pocus (voodoo) nature of the nonsense (2) drawing out the inefficiency and ignorance involved and (3) pointing folk in the more informed direction. As you know for anyone schooled in economics and especially one with 18 years professional practice in the area of corporate planning and econometric modeling most of what is going here is a huge laugh - if central banks cannot dare with all their sophisticated econometric models and money invested in power computing I suppose I am hardly on the wrong track to inform those not already too confused by it all to get out of it with a cent in their pockets.

RIP thanks in advance.
Quoting Squeeze
Summoned from the depths another ghoul arrives. Where was the mention of the Amero, or NWO fears? Are they yours?
Sorros, policy leaning luminaries and their obvious reasons in one sentence is the NWO fear rhetoric no matter how much you wrapped it with fundamental mambo jumbo.

You think that your constant referring to time travel along with the other dismissals summoned me? It only shows that what I did you last time is one of the strongest memories you ever had and a possible rematch will get you to break even. No I don't buy you guarded lad. You belong to the depths of the ocean like all yellow submarines not having the guts to show their fundamentally driven results(3.2% in a day ending to a 50%/year...) even on a demo. RIP and thanx in advance too
Don't Fight Forces, Use Them.
Hmm, so you're here to help people with your style of trade and high think. Look, to be honest, if these friends of the Middle East is really real user (and not your creation to have someone agreeing with you. Maybe they are deleted because FF admins know you do), you'd better have a decent place to be able to help them. For empty comments and attacking people does not help anyone. To be honest, it would be best to recommend newbies to go to university, learn about the basic principles of economics is much better than the internet.
John Taylor at FX Concepts predicts eventual parity, as has Soros on many recent occasions. Yes they have their reasons (as FX fund owners/operators) but in terms of overall efficiency of trade and hopefully stimulating European growth it's difficult to put up a case versus it.

I'm sorry what were you saying about your conspiracy theories as you lurched into LG 'drivel speak'? You now have conspiracies that folk have conspiracies? Is that it. Erm good luck with that..

Quoting Timetraveler
Sorros, policy leaning luminaries and their obvious reasons in one sentence is the NWO fear rhetoric no matter how much you wrapped it with fundamental mambo jumbo.

You think that your constant referring to time travel along with the other dismissals summoned me? It only shows that what I did you last time is one of the strongest memories you ever had and a possible rematch will get you to break even. No I don't buy you guarded lad. You belong to the depths of the ocean like all yellow submarines not having the guts to show their fundamentally...
Quoting ssshhhh
We are not here trying to find a motive in the news for buy or sell a currency.
I think you're not having common sense, we are talking about the subject and not on how to succeed in trades we must pay attention to S / R or focus only on fundamental analysis.
It is you not having the common sense. The majority's main subject IS how to succeed in trades and make money not to waste time to debate if p.ex. the Spain's debt will be reduced because Gemany probably bought the Champions League final and consequently will affect the forex market.

Stop wasting people's time or at least warn them(intentionally and not by mistake) that your intention is not how to succeed, as it is very well known and proven you've already succeeded, but to have a good time. I say it is the alleged successful traders that are in need of a private news thread to boast their insanity level and not vice versa.
Don't Fight Forces, Use Them.
Quoting Timetraveler
It is you not having the common sense. The majority's main subject IS how to succeed in trades and make money not to waste time to debate if p.ex. the Spain's debt will be reduced because Gemany probably bought the Champions League final and consequently will affect the forex market.

Stop wasting people's time or at least warn them(intentionally and not by mistake) that your intention is not how to succeed, as it is very well known and proven you've already succeeded, but to have a good time. I say it is the alleged successful traders that are...
You do not understand, we're talking about slowly recovering from protracted recession. If in case I see a news about how to succeed in forex, I will probably discuss it, But this is not the case.

Now, about proving the success or not, it is obvious that I did not put any of historic trades on the internet. Are you puts your bank statement? The trading history is as important as.

I'm stoping here, subject totally distorted. I think I probably would not do that anymore.
Quoting Timetraveler
It is you not having the common sense. The majority's main subject IS how to succeed in trades and make money not to waste time to debate if p.ex. the Spain's debt will be reduced because Gemany probably bought the Champions League final and consequently will affect the forex market.

Stop wasting people's time or at least warn them(intentionally and not by mistake) that your intention is not how to succeed, as it is very well known and proven you've already succeeded, but to have a good time. I say it is the alleged successful traders that are...


lol........thumbs up !
By the way with all pivots in on release - I still say we are going up - 5% chance I am wrong, i.e. we are still on target to move on to 1.34334 which shows why fundamentals is noise in direction (NID)
Quoting Loadedgun
By the way with all pivots in on release - I still say we are going up - 5% chance I am wrong, i.e. we are still on target to move on to 1.34334 which shows why fundamentals is noise in direction (NID)
Please stay to the topic. We're not headed to parity, that's the issue, despite the interests of Sorros and policy-market makers and their obvious powers. If your trade has a chance that will be the reason. You're, by pure luck, at the positive side of the 50% HFFCT(High-Frequency-Flip-Coin-Trading) edge as applied at the most successful grocery stores.

So could you pass me the milk my dear? I'd like un petit nuage along with a pinch of salt when I attend such wonderful tea parties for grown ups
Don't Fight Forces, Use Them.
Quoting Loadedgun
The Euro appears to be going up or are me eyes crossed??? What a laugh now you know - you ain't gonna get the goods from me and for sure you ain't gat a clue how it plays - plus soon I will show you up in public and even if I don't say it everyone will (a) ask you to shut up when you start (b) ask the admin to do you what you did to my friends without justification. Meanwhile I have three good friends whom I will show all and believe me the knowledge is easily transferred - so RIP thanks in advance - what a laugh.
Gunny, check the charts several years back and you will see that EUR is in fact in the lower zone - it can barely touch 1.35xx. My opinion is that big money in Europe keep it that will for competing reasons.
Since Chaos trader does not use news to trade (neither do I by the way) I am still wondering why chaos trader cannot accept that this news thread is valuable simply for the point of discussing news as a point of interest only.

I mean, surely it is not helping any trader improve their bottom line...
Come with me if you want to live....
"seems" none of the media is "publicly" interested in Gold.....

Schiff makes sense
Come with me if you want to live....
Quoting Ill-b-back
Since Chaos trader does not use news to trade (neither do I by the way) I am still wondering why chaos trader cannot accept that this news thread is valuable simply for the point of discussing news as a point of interest only.

I mean, surely it is not helping any trader improve their bottom line...
There should be no false airs about the procedure here - since by your admission news is useless anyway and a mere travesty. S0 what would then be your grouse against my attitude. Would it not be stupid of me after what you have just mentioned to come here all serious and (intimidated) about a topic such as this when you yourself agree (10 vouches and 6451 posts later) that news is rubbish insofar as making sense of the market goes?

You fear you may be wrong about that and being unsure after all this while you come around (for that one last time many times over) to check to see if in fact you made a mistake about this at some point prior. I am different I come around to degrade the idea because I am sure of its worthlessness and therefore to save anyone else willing to trust my views (especially newbees) the painful cost to me (when I joined) of the notion that news/fundamentals is worthwhile and important to traders (rather than the scam trainers, site owners and other such aftermarket folks earning a keep from our collective misery not to mention the unproven efficacy of what they were and are still so keen to tell new entrants).

Now you are quite senior to me on FF having amassed all the accolades available - had you been straight up honest with me (and people like me when I joined) about this view I might not have lost so much money believing that you could trade the markets by news and fundamentals. But you kept mum either out of confusion or fear or just the incredible need by certain personalities to never rock the boat of obvious scams and conform based on the false logic that a fool deserves to part with his money. So what exactly is your worth to anyone then (oh very wise trader) if you cannot be yourself and share your experience honestly - tell me? And is there a special way to do that? I have only one vouch (and was surprised when I got it because clearly people like you would not vouch for me because I refuse to aid and abet the promotion of fear and confusion to feed already fat cats) but I believe it is worth more than your ten because I have the courage to be myself and say it as it is.

Now the forum allows you (and your fears) as much freedom as me (and my indignation at being fooled initially by these scammers). Therefore by expressing our psyches in such a mix of views we start to communicate to the culprits that hey - folks are starting to catch on and it is no longer much of a free lunch to push a view that has no merit at other peoples cost. DO I MAKE SENSE, AM I CLEAR NOW?

RIP what a laugh
The news v techs debate is as old as the wider industry. It is an indisputable fact that the only price movements visible, as a consequence of no policy changes or news events, happen as a consequence of where the real industry (non retail) hunt; think round numbers, pivot point levels, psyche numbers and MAs such as the 200 plotted on a daily chart and above.

Perhaps the worst self employed traders who give this industry a go to eventually fail, are those from an engineering background. I've known some to take years to become obsessed with the overall structure of the market to eventually accept that when the market isn't trending and is ranging then for the most part trading within ranges can only be effective by using/paying attention to the key areas I've highlighted.

Movement is mostly random noise when ranging. Now this fact strikes at the very heart of the engineer's belief system, he/she has to find a solution, "there must be a reason, a solution, it can't be random, there must be a method to solve the problem."

Ask any mentor and they'll suggest that their worst clients are those from maths or technical backgrounds, they'd be best moving into quant land if they have the qualifications. But that's a big if given that only the very best, from MIT, Oxbridge, Imperial, UCL etc are being taken on by firms nowadays. I hope my eldest son gets his grades this summer for his maths degree at Imperial :-)

Quoting Ill-b-back
Since Chaos trader does not use news to trade (neither do I by the way) I am still wondering why chaos trader cannot accept that this news thread is valuable simply for the point of discussing news as a point of interest only.

I mean, surely it is not helping any trader improve their bottom line...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
The news v techs debate is as old as the wider industry.
Trust you to be trolling about. What do you Know "the real industry" my foot - and then again you must show your low class schooling each time - now a market 4 times per day the size of the canadian economy per year is a place where "the real industry" hunts? Now is that not another conspiracy theorist on the block? Are you now suggesting a few have the power to manipulate the many? How many times have you insulted newbees on account of the same error or more correctly in your case ignorance? But when it suits your absurd notions of reality you come up farting from all sides of your mouth? What a laugh.

This is a world market where central bankers, ordinary citizens, corporations and business people, speculators, governments local and national etc, through banks (even brokers ultimately go through banks) make time stamped orders to buy and sell currencies. It is a fractal structure therefore for several reasons not least of which is that it is self-organizing and completely immune to short or long-term manipulation in the sense you suggest.

Some players have more visibility of the market than others (e.g. banks for the reason stated above). Therefore, based on order flow analysis, etc may take (and mark my words here) risk based on such visibility as they have. They may enter trades speculatively by defining entry and take profit levels based on their sense of how market forces are balanced (demand and supply). In doing so they are no different than a retail or any other speculative trader seeking out by estimations any which way - demand and supply zones - and timing their moves (sometimes based on news and other such events) to some marker in the hope of riding momentum for the range they are at risk.

That does not amount to the claim you make of manipulation - absolutely daft to have suggested that and clearly shows you up for what you really are. The reason why we are all on more or less equal footing is no one has all the facts assembled in any one place at any one time. So for instance a bank might model the market based on its order flow data but no bank has universal visibility and must of need take a risk placing any kind of order (why else do they enter stop orders if as you suggest they have such visibility they can't go wrong. Why do banks such as UBS make net losses - big mouth?). An individual like me on the other hand has demonstrated over and over again that with math (chaos and fractal geometry) it is possible to be even more accurate than those with a partial view of the market. So much for the the "real industry" crap - much like your hft/crap algos - since the market is beyond all and only the mastery of chaos makes this super clear - no one is at a disadvantage if he or she finds the means of estimating critical market dynamics - hence my open promotion of chaos.

Look give it a rest you are not intelligent enough to takeover an international forum - your local pub maybe - but not here. Cheers RIP thanks in advance


I'm sorry but its the weekend and I'm off to Wales to mountain bike with my youngest so you'll have to entertain yourself by other means and I'll be doing what Gustav and many others have done and putting you and your two chums back on ignore after this post. Knock yourself out :-)

Quoting Loadedgun
There should be no false airs about the procedure here - since by your admission news is useless anyway and a mere travesty. S0 what would then be your grouse against my attitude. Would it not be stupid of me after what you have just mentioned to come here all serious and (intimidated) about a topic such as this when you yourself agree (10 vouches and 6451 posts later) that news is rubbish insofar as making sense of the market goes?

You fear you may be wrong about that and being unsure after all this while you come around (for that one last...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Touche - RIP thanks in advance - could not say a word in response = retreat and surrender

Say hi to your kids - hope you all have fun - kinda like wales but of course that was eons ago.
Quoting Loadedgun
Trust you to be trolling about. What do you Know "the real industry" my foot - and then again you must show your low class schooling each time - now a market 4 times per day the size of the canadian economy per year is a place where "the real industry" hunts? Now is that not another conspiracy theorist on the block? Are you now suggesting a few have the power to manipulate the many? How many times have you insulted newbees on account of the same error or more correctly in your case ignorance? But when it suits your absurd notions of reality...




great post.....i like the way you define the market and how it works...........i have used this argument too a couple of times and normally people don't have much to say but to hold tight to their firm beliefs.............in the end what is important is that how you model the market...if there is a better explanation than chaos than i'l be open-minded enough to find out
Quoting ssshhhh
We are not here trying to find a motive in the news for buy or sell a currency.
I think you're not having common sense, we are talking about the subject and not on how to succeed in trades we must pay attention to S / R or focus only on fundamental analysis.

Facepalm: You have more than 3 post per day, and none of that post you are discussing something, just trying to assert your trade style, distorting topics and talking trash about people.
Clearly english is not your first language and I am not english but by force of circumstances it is the language I use the most (indeed far more than my mother tongue). Now that is no minus to you just observing it because I appreciate you are upset by me and the reasons would have been clearer if we could communicate better. But be that as it may - I did not start this between us - you did. If you recall you had on several occasions before attacked me unjustly and while my responses are not intended as payback it is clearly the case that I am not inclined to be particularly considerate of your feelings as a result of your past posture towards me. So let us be clear - since you take the liberty to interject some vitriolic and unwarranted comments in your response to my posts I assert the right of reply - but I am responsible enough to keep malice out.

Now if you can't do the time then don't do the crime - point being you could put me on your ignore list if you find me so offensive otherwise you are going to have to accept that I can give back far more than I get - I am that productive and sure of myself.

Cheers
Now one of the proofs of chaos as a science suitable for use in this arena is my call which I insist is inviolate in spite of the recent events seen that have tended to put selling pressure on the Euro (and clearly why such a science is superior to crap fundamentals). I see the Euro @ 1.33/34 sooner than later. The precise short-term fluctuations to get there are things to be read on a day to day basis - but there is no other forecasting method in the game except chaos that can insist as a matter of natural law (mathematics) that these objectives will be met before we see levels below 1.27.

If that is not something to think about - I do not know what we are talking about - a trader bold enough to make the assertions above is either mad or has discovered something new to the game. So to doubters let us watch my calls and see how they do from this point on.

BTW: We use 5% chance of error to state these forecasts because among other things there is what we call acts of God that cannot be discounted by any known means.
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Quoting Guest
It may be bullshit, but euro stays strong. Trust your charts and don't let emotion get in the way.
I agree, a lot of these folks don't do that. Most of them are news traders trying to get a quick buck. They could do better in vegas instead of trading the news. The charts tells me which way to go.Screw that news crap. listen to the news and folks on cnbc & other folks telling what a currency pair is going to do will always have you in the poor house.
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