best opportunity to sell euro!! rate cut on due you will get lot of pips at weekend.
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you guys are getting played like a fiddle! IF, and that's only IF euro is going to sell off(and I'm not talking about a small pullback from today's rally)...it's not going to happen until after ECB statement on Thursday morning. Try your luck selling then!
I'm not convinced a rate cut is set in stone. Ignore the talk, the speculation and the news. On the daily we had an up leg, a correction and now are entering another up leg. I'm looking for opportunities to get long.
If there is a rate cut, I'll close longs and look for shorts at the top of the daily range (1.32). EUR banks closed tomorrow - so I expect some sideways movement until Thursday.
It is almost certain that the ECB will cut rates this week. I'm completely baffled that anyone can take a long position EUR/USD this week. The Euro will fall like a fat man jumping off a bridge! Some people just cant see the woods for the trees.
It is almost certain that the ECB will cut rates this week. I'm completely baffled that anyone can take a long position EUR/USD this week. The Euro will fall like a fat man jumping off a bridge! Some people just cant see the woods for the trees.
Ignored
Long Position Was Good For My Account For 80 Pips Today.
you guys are getting played like a fiddle! IF, and that's only IF euro is going to sell off(and I'm not talking about a small pullback from today's rally)...it's not going to happen until after ECB statement on Thursday morning. Try your luck selling then!
I'm not convinced a rate cut is set in stone. Ignore the talk, the speculation and the news. On the daily we had an up leg, a correction and now are entering another up leg. I'm looking for opportunities to get long. If there is a rate cut, I'll close longs and look for shorts at the top of the daily range (1.32). EUR banks closed tomorrow - so I expect some sideways movement until Thursday.
Ignored
When it comes to the ECB nothing is ever set in stone. By looking at the euro price action one would wonder if we're getting a rate hike instead of a cut
Anyways, it's month end and options COULD play a role here...just a speculation. Yes, on the daily you have a leg up but let me tell you smth: give me any chart and i can ALWAYS find a compelling TECHNICAL reason to go both: long AND short.
Euro IS fundamentally a sell...the problem is that the market is STILL not linking fundamentals with market price. Europe is not trading fundamentals but default probabilities. Peripheral yields are still trading the Draghi's "We will stand behind everything" even though the fundies are worse(ning). And every drop in yields are backstoping the euro's fall.
Now, what do we take out the ECB's action on Thursday ?
If we DON'T get a cut then the equities SHOULD look pretty stupid when trading back at these new high levels and the classical "sell in May and go away" would be in place. Euro could get a kneejerk upmove but after that i'm not sure whether it'll follow the potential risk off or the "rate difference not being reduced".
If we get a cut then everybody in this and the next planet will jump in an euro short trade (sadly with tight stops) and kneejerk reaction would be lower. Whether it'd be 30, 50, 100+ points, i don't know. However, digging deeper into it, then the peripherial yields would, logically, also go lower which would provide backstop for the pair and the rest is a confusing (and thus technical) play again. I would be interested in what stocks would do...theoretically, we've been pricing in the junk status monetary policy again the whole way up from the low we had two weeks ago.
As a sidenote, that "sell in May" phenomena is quite astonishing. It has worked in the usd index since 2006 (which is the furtherst i could scroll back atm ) with the expeption of 2009 (say: QE1)...currently, everything is again perfectly set up for it - stocks at (new) highs, dollar at multi week lows breaking and clearing the april low orders/stops...gonna be interesting...will Benny or Mario come up with smth that strong to offset what seems to be inevidable ?