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  • The First Italian Exit Polls Are Out

    From zerohedge.com

    And here we go with the first Senate exit polls from RAI: BERSANI 36%-38%, BERLUSCONI 30%-32% GRILLO 17%-19%, MONTI 7%-9% In other words, Berlusconi+Grillo may have a majority, yet due to the way the Senate seats are assigned, the current outcome may be sufficient for Bersani. As a reminder, the Senate majority needs 158 seats for outright majority:

good for uds/jpy ??
good for eu???
bad for eu
Bad for Euro.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.12.171
i see more people fancy bersani over the old-outcredited party led by berlusconi, it should be good over the currency, but since the euro went down, i short anyway. the new government cannot hope to deal with the euro problem instantly, since ther's tons of it
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.X.167.40
good news, go Grillo and Silvio!!
i'm italian and i guarantee that it's going to be a mess in the next weeks, go long bund and/or short btp future at good prices while you can
Berlusconi + Grillo??? WTF??!! Is it a possible coalition?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.7.137
EURUSD down because next estimations (in smaller cities) will promote Berlusconi.
Quoting albertoe
Berlusconi + Grillo??? WTF??!! Is it a possible coalition?
No coalition is impossible but strong opposition and possibility shut off government IS POSSIBLE!!!
Yes, it is, but . .. . .. .. . .. .. Too dangerous to sell Euro now. Sit tight!!
Quoting skyboys007
Bad for Euro.
Nobody can say what is good and what is bad for Euro and Europe. Opposition is always good.
Stick to your plan and you will be successful !!!
BERLUSCONI + ANYONE =very very bad for EUR
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.192.18
Only Chart Can say BAD or Good
grillo is a timebomb
http://www.investmenteurope.net/investment-europe/news/2249588/bersanimonti-coalition-best-outcome-for-the-euro-marketscom-suggests

that's what it is for the Euro
all poll company's projection in short chart: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/RNGS/2013/FEB/ITPOLL_WF.jpg
If any thing happen for Euro ,we will make pips from both buy & Sell !
Quoting bd pips
BERLUSCONI + ANYONE =very very bad for EUR
LOL!!
Eur/jpy down o up? i think down target
117
Quoting jegas
If any thing happen for Euro ,we will make pips from both buy & Sell !
good idea
and the turnout is 54%? Jeez, do 'we' deserve the politicians we elect, or have we become apathetic due to their governance?
Just wondering what drives up euro today, bad new for another and euro go up..lol
imho it's a return to general risk on appetite with dollars being sold

Quoting Idoscon
Just wondering what drives up euro today, bad new for another and euro go up..lol
Quoting Idoscon
Just wondering what drives up euro today, bad new for another and euro go up..lol
Euro was strong during London morning session and now looking to crush down to earth.

My assumption is mainly due to market manipulation, the fact that it started up trend market with the market gap ( market manipulation using physiological techniques )
Bad!!!!!! hope this does not weaken the Euro further!!!!.......
Quoting MichuC
Eur/jpy down o up? i think down target
117

120 could be more reliable
  •  Guest
  • | IP X.XXX.1.215
Italian electoral law is complicated. Until this evening, no one can know the true results (especially the region of Lombardy very important). As we knew before the election, the coalition of Bersani, will have a small majority and there will be a very tough opposition (Cricket + League + Berlusconi).
Result = Italy is not governable
= Government does not stand a long time.
= No significant change in the European scenario
= New elections within one year.
EUR / USD = depends on European policies and not from Italy
The market is so aggressive, but the degree of risk is high=bearish all majors against $$$$ except for Ł
You sometime understand the trend BUT you need to open new positions at the best point as much as you can...
Too close too call was very bad for the Euro...
To be short and you can´t fail........
And still debt ceiling USA default = short EURO
EUR is eventually down to 1.29..........good luck all...........
Very strong level 1.2700 on EUR/USD...
I don't think that EURO will sink to 1.29 now, maybe 1.050. Be cautious about it
what 1.050?
Been short EUR since just under 1.32 yesterday. Been long antacids for the same interval.
There are some pairs no one talks about but that make something like 700 pips in the twinkle of an eye and that just go one way most of the time - e.g. GBPNZD. sure it is cross but it is good for so many here just wanting to make money and not worry about the vagaries of high profile pairs like the Euro. Only drawback is the spread is high and another thing it moves very fast and you will see spikes - so good to understudy for a while. The thing though is if it is going down it is going down forever and if it is going up it is going up forever just like most crosses (unpopular in trader talk). Just a thought. BTW looks like I am on target still with the Euro and I did not have to second guess my initial call. Funny all the talk here therefore.
Quoting Loadedgun
There are some pairs no one talks about but that make something like 700 pips in the twinkle of an eye and that just go one way most of the time - e.g. GBPNZD. sure it is cross but it is good for so many here just wanting to make money and not worry about the vagaries of high profile pairs like the Euro. Only drawback is the spread is high and another thing it moves very fast and you will see spikes - so good to understudy for a while. The thing though is if it is going down it is going down forever and if it is going up it is going up forever just...
what was youe initial call??..i had closed all my shorts on 1.31 only......what do you think is the best position to buy?
Quoting alimm0f
what 1.050?
Sorry, 1.50
Quoting Maso
Sorry, 1.50
oops 1.3050 I mean
It's all meaningless as Angela will just send in her technocrate storm troopers.
Quoting Fx Hiflyer
what was youe initial call??..i had closed all my shorts on 1.31 only......what do you think is the best position to buy?
I closed mine at 1.30450 or rather my TP was hit. Taking a breather and watching to reread the market after sorting out Gold from which I had taken a breather and which looks like decision point again.

Good to take breathers else one becomes over confident and the results can be nasty - quite a bit in the pot though and not a day trader so I can watch for a bit. But my TP was also estimated as a return line (short - medium term) I have a way in which pivots are confirmed after about 4 hours of flows. If I think it is a confirmed pivot then I will know what to do - but I will only trade if the reverse amplitude estimated suggests a swing trade so for now I am watching the sinusoids and calculating the differentials to solve for the chaotic variables I need to see to provide guidance.

Like you said it is simple math.
<inserts shakes head emoticon>

Quoting Loadedgun
There are some pairs no one talks about but that make something like 700 pips in the twinkle of an eye and that just go one way most of the time - e.g. GBPNZD. sure it is cross but it is good for so many here just wanting to make money and not worry about the vagaries of high profile pairs like the Euro. Only drawback is the spread is high and another thing it moves very fast and you will see spikes - so good to understudy for a while. The thing though is if it is going down it is going down forever and if it is going up it is going up forever just...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
For those interested the term sinusoid refers to sine waves. Part of my approach is to model the market by curves of different wavelengths etc. This is on the simple theory that orders come in waves and subsist in the market for different duration (so some effects are captured by short waves, others by longer frequency waves of different magnitudes). So one way to read the balance of market forces is to employ sinusoidal functions. This comes from an understanding of chaos math and fractal geometry as well as modern fractal wave theory among other things - all aspects of math and physics. What you have here is simple synthesis and the idea here (using specific terms) is to lead those interested not only to glean the technique but see the sources of information and investigate these.

Those who recall earlier posts by me, know that I have consistently exposed these and other aspects of my chart reading which is not based on technicals and certainly ignores fundamentals as completely incompetent.

Just to clarify.

BTW: To get exceptional results one needs to break new grounds. If you do not understand an approach at least know enough about its basis before making public statements which may deny others knowledge they could use.
Quoting Loadedgun
I closed mine at 1.30450 or rather my TP was hit. Taking a breather and watching to reread the market after sorting out Gold from which I had taken a breather and which looks like decision point again.

Good to take breathers else one becomes over confident and the results can be nasty - quite a bit in the pot though and not a day trader so I can watch for a bit. But my TP was also estimated as a return line (short - medium term) I have a way in which pivots are confirmed after about 4 hours of flows. If I think it is a confirmed pivot then I...

i am a day trader but i am not rigid ..i am looking for a long term trade and the time and numbers seem right......i shorted gold twice yesterday...but i am not planning to take any position today even though i was dying to buy at today's low for euro..........do let me know when you work something ..il be extremely grateful ..thankyou
Fledgling traders and newbies to FX often need to try many strategies in search of their holy grail in trading. Those that actually believe there's a mathematical system out there, buried in the jungle somewhere, that will yield up unimaginable results are destined for disappointment. The plotting of two sine points, to determine if a market is trending or in cycle mode, is typical of someone struggling to find Shangri La. It's all been done before. I often think these folk constantly search and modify but are scared of engaging with the market as a single loss ruins their belief in mathematical purity.

Perhaps a few of you would benefit from doing some research and looking at the returns FX hedge funds make when running the most sophisticated models imaginable.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=9301

http://www.forexrealm.com/technical-analysis/technical-indicators/mesa-sine-wave.html
Quoting Squeeze
Fledgling traders and newbies to FX often need to try many strategies in search of their holy grail in trading. Those that actually believe there's a mathematical system out there, buried in the jungle somewhere, that will yield up unimaginable results are destined for disappointment. The plotting of two sine points, to determine if a market is trending or in cycle mode, is typical of someone struggling to find Shangri La. It's all been done before. I often think these folk constantly search and modify but are scared of engaging with the market...

i always read the articles you post......due to my lack of knowledge couldnt grasp all of it...but i see what you are talking about
One thing those who desire success must learn is to ignore posters without locus. People that are inadequate and lack insight and or trading ability and especially those that are unable to consistently demonstrate significant results and are still struggling to find themselves (regardless of how long one claims to have traded an inept trader remains that no matter how long he trades and clearly returns on investment not time spent in ignorance is the marker). Especially if such a poster is opinionated because he is either seeking notice/recognition or is genuinely deluded and despite his or her obvious handicaps persists in promoting untenable views I avoid like the plaque. I do not so much as read their views not to mention bothering to look up references they provide. This has helped me keep focused and learn important new things from people who know.

Certain assumptions are for instance curious and laughable - for example, the idea that hedge funds or so-called institutionals already have employed the best modellers on earth and reached the limit of knowledge about market modelling techniques there is to reach asserted by those untrained and unskilled at modeling is a case in point and it is to me funny and pretty revealing of the shallowness of any mind given to such thinking. I would ignore such a person for always and never ever pay attention to him forever - in my parlance RIP.

The reason is of course obvious not least of all is that new things come to creative minds every second of the day and out there, there is always hope because of this fact and thus one should have faith in the human spirit (some of such creative minds in different fields are unemployed as we speak and unknown - only to be taken up once they come to light by these heavily capitalized institutions in the case of the forex - though not everyone might oblige in the forex since for instance with what I know I do not need to work for no twerp).

However, as any skilled modeller knows the hedge funds and other institutionals even central banks use deterministic models which if one holds a basic understanding of math will just laugh off. Pity people engage in discussions way beyond their intellectual accessibility - but worse make definitive statements as if they knew what they were talking about especially providing examples to buttress their positions that reflect an IQ that qualifies them as exceptionally dull and brand them as persons to be ignored in the areas to which they speak.
I used to tell this story of new equipment delivered to a gym...

An older gym has had a refurb and some brand new equipment delivered, all the relative new gym users are looking through the windows and getting really excited at the gym opening and the prospect of getting to grips with the new equipment. Some laser their focus on one of the new contraptions. Some of them believing that this one new piece of equipment will drastically change their shape (it's usually the core they want to change if they've let themselves go). One of the older gym trainers walks past, smiles and shakes his head as he finally opens the doors, "nothing ever changes in this business, the new equipment won't do the job for you, nothing will ever replace hard work and having the desire to improve. Anyone can radically change and improve if they're physically competent. Barbells, kettle bells, dumb bells, machines..fashions come and go, but the basics haven't changed for decades."

What are our basics as traders that will remain constant through out the ages? And like our old style gym can you earn a dime from the most basic set ups, using the constants day after day on the most crude equipment?

Quoting Fx Hiflyer
i always read the articles you post......due to my lack of knowledge couldnt grasp all of it...but i see what you are talking about
Do you really feel qualified to talk on the subject of hedge funds or institutional trading when I'd imagine you're new to trading and have had absolutely no direct or indirect experience in either sector? Have you any idea as to how quants work, why they're so massively rewarded and why the excellent ones are so coveted?


Quoting Loadedgun
One thing those who desire success must learn is to ignore posters without locus. People that are inadequate and lack insight and or trading ability and especially those that are unable to demonstrate consistently significant results and are still struggling to find themselves (regardless of how long one claims to have traded an idiot trader remains that no matter how long he trades and clearly returns not time spent in ignorance is marker). Especially if opinionated (either seeking notice/recognition or genuinely deluded) despite these obvious...
Quoting Loadedgun
One thing those who desire success must learn is to ignore posters without locus. People that are inadequate and lack insight and or trading ability and especially those that are unable to demonstrate consistently significant results and are still struggling to find themselves. Especially, if opinionated despite these obvious handicaps I avoid like the plaque - I do not so much as read their views not to mention bothering to look up references they provide. This has helped me keep focused and learn important new things from people who know.

Certain...


you are experienced and learned.....MBA in economics and what not...it is easier for you to decide what to study and from whom .....i am just acca qualified and planning to start my mba in a year or two....plus i am still new in this business ...and newbies like me would want to pick up things from wherever possible..

it is simple math for you...but alien language for me
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Quoting Fx Hiflyer
you are experienced and learned.....MBA in economics and what not...it is easier for you to decide what to study and from whom .....i am just acca qualified and planning to start my mba in a year or two....plus i am still new in this business ...and newbies like me would want to pick up things from wherever possible..

it is simple math for you...but alien language for me
I was not addressing you specifically just highlighting a general point. The fact that my post came just after yours has to do with "order flow" (the same concept as in micro finance that guides the waves of buy/sell orders in electronic markets). We completed our posts and hit the send button about the same time and yours arrived miliseconds ahead of mine. So as you can see I am not one to bother with individuals as such I am only interested in principles.

I hope this is clear.


Loadedgun - BTW I am signed in as guest because I am airborne on a private flight for a short-trip in-country and should be on ground in say 75 minutes.
Some people teach, some people trade. i trade. find out what the big players are doing and get on board. Don't at your own peril. They move the market. We don't. Teachers don't move the market, big traders do.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.187.231
Sine wave does not move the market, otherwise I will be using cosine wave instead.........great talk about model but modelling does not move the market!!!!!!! Theory and real life trading does not mixed
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.3.34
Quoting Squeeze
I used to tell this story of new equipment delivered to a gym...
Hahahaa - so what is the moral here we should not be open to new ideas or that the things are fixed and we should simply accept our "fate" as you see it?

For instance when EW and co traded there were no electronic charting packages so is it wrong for us now to use the new tools? There was also no FF to reveal the actions, thoughts and behaviors of a cross section of traders. Does the existence of FF not change the dynamic of trading you think? There were no algos only a short while ago etc. I really do not get it.

I also agree with loadedgun - creating a model and deploying it in electronic is not capital intensive it is knowledge intensive. So any of us with the knowhow can blow an institution away. Do not forget that retail is new and that means not so long ago many of the traders and would be traders had no chance - now that they do expect new and different angles - even revolutionary tools and approaches from this segment - if you did not believe this why did you start trading in the first place. If you feel so inferior why not simply leave your money in some trust fund or savings accounts - why do you take the risks you take. Just curious really. Cheers
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.34.145
GoldmanSach's appointed man obviously out.
I'm quickly realising that there's one inexperienced dominant voice on this news section with conviction bordering on religious obsession believing that maths actually moves the FX market. The only maths that could arguably move the market are self fulfilling prophecy maths/ levels: round numbers, pivot point numbers - standard, Woodie and Camarilla and Fibonacci retrace.

Quoting Guest
Sine wave does not move the market, otherwise I will be using cosine wave instead.........great talk about model but modelling does not move the market!!!!!!! Theory and real life trading does not mixed
The moral is that for successful traders very little has changed, certainly not in the 2 decades I've been involved in investing/speculating. What you've witnessed over the past ten years or so is a massive rise in BS trying to baffle brains and nearly all of that BS is aimed towards very naive new traders. For example, how old are candlestick indicators, what do they represent, how should they be used? Here's a thing, successful traders could make a decent and consistent living from no more than the most basic app on a smartphone. Can you, or are you one of the 95% who will never progress?




Quoting Guest
Hahahaa - so what is the moral here we should not be open to new ideas or that the things are fixed and we should simply accept our "fate" as you see it?

For instance when EW and co traded there were no electronic charting packages so is it wrong for us now to use the new tools? There was also no FF to reveal the actions, thoughts and behaviors of a cross section of traders. Does the existence of FF not change the dynamic of trading you think? There were no algos only a short while ago etc. I really do not get it.

I also agree with loadedgun...
Quoting Guest
Hahahaa - so what is the moral here we should not be open to new ideas or that the things are fixed and we should simply accept our "fate" as you see it?

For instance when EW and co traded there were no electronic charting packages so is it wrong for us now to use the new tools? There was also no FF to reveal the actions, thoughts and behaviors of a cross section of traders. Does the existence of FF not change the dynamic of trading you think? There were no algos only a short while ago etc. I really do not get it.

I also agree with loadedgun...
There is nothing wrong with new trading ideas. I haven't read any on here though. All of this has been tried and either incorporated or discarded. When someone can show me 10 years of consistent profit using a new method, i am all in. Otherwise, i have no reason to try anything different. The trick for a new idea author is to get as many people on board as possible. Trying in a vain attempt to justify it's use. I know one thing. If i had a new idea that worked flawlessly the last thing i would do with it is publicize it. That would ruin it.
Do some posters exist here to pick off the weak runt sheep, in the hope that they'll the join their flock?

Quoting jaygee
Some people teach, some people trade. i trade. find out what the big players are doing and get on board. Don't at your own peril. They move the market. We don't. Teachers don't move the market, big traders do.
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  • | IP XXX.XX.187.231
Quoting jaygee
There is nothing wrong with new trading ideas. I haven't read any on here though. All of this has been tried and either incorporated or discarded. When someone can show me 10 years of consistent profit using a new method, i am all in. Otherwise, i have no reason to try anything different. The trick for a new idea author is to get as many people on board as possible. Trying in a vain attempt to justify it's use. I know one thing. If i had a new idea that worked flawlessly the last thing i would do with it is publicize it. That would ruin it.
Exactly!! it is so like you when you add to losing trades by shouting entries in this forum!
It's often stated that you could post the most profitable and tested edge on the front of the WSJ and FT and most retail traders would still mess it up. I think the Turtles experiment proved that. Your last line intrigues me, until individual traders move past that invention, dreamlike state into reality they'll never succeed in this business. There is no magic system, the real trick to this business is managing risk. Take care of the downside and the upside looks after itself isn't necessarily completely bullet proof but it's a message that's worth more in one para than any reams of self delusion and bafflement.

Quoting jaygee
There is nothing wrong with new trading ideas. I haven't read any on here though. All of this has been tried and either incorporated or discarded. When someone can show me 10 years of consistent profit using a new method, i am all in. Otherwise, i have no reason to try anything different. The trick for a new idea author is to get as many people on board as possible. Trying in a vain attempt to justify it's use. I know one thing. If i had a new idea that worked flawlessly the last thing i would do with it is publicize it. That would ruin it.
Quoting Squeeze
The moral is that for successful traders very little has changed, certainly not in the 2 decades I've been involved in investing/speculating. What you've witnessed over the past ten years or so is a massive rise in BS trying to baffle brains and nearly all of that BS is aimed towards very naive new traders. For example, how old are candlestick indicators, what do they represent, how should they be used? Here's a thing, successful traders could make a decent and consistent living from no more than the most basic app on a smartphone. Can you, or are...
Absolute RUBBISH !!..

Majority of the successful traders are hedge fund managers with billions of dollars at their disposal which is NOT their money who can easily manipulate the market. Worst case they get fired and thats about it. When they are trading with their OWN money, its a whole new story.
Thank you all for providing entertainment with your comments LOL
Hmm, I'm struggling to understand your lack of basic comprehension and lack of politeness, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, this time, despite your silly opening line.

We're not debating institutional level traders here, I'm focusing on retail, that was clear so why you introduced such a diversion is beyond me. Have you worked for a fund or at institutional level? Unlikely, if you did you'd know how serious managing others' money is and how minimising risk is everything.


WRT retail traders my own experience is that the successful retail traders all operate/trade using very similar methods and have done for a decade or more. Less than one in ten recreational traders are successful and that success is very modest.


Quoting BenMario
Absolute RUBBISH !!..

Majority of the successful traders are hedge fund managers with billions of dollars at their disposal which is NOT their money who can easily manipulate the market. Worst case they get fired and thats about it. When they are trading with their OWN money, its a whole new story.
I have a question for all you traders?

Did you ever look at a single bar or candle to make a judgement about which way the market is going to move?

I'll appreciate each and every reply. Thank you.
Some people feel money management is the only risk they can manage. I try and trade according to perceived trade risk. WHat are the chances this trade goes wrong and increase size according to that diminishing risk according to historical success rates. For instance and simply in this case.....What are the chances a usd/jpy 87 weekly rsi will continue higher. Historically, the chances are near zero except for divergences but very very rarely then also. In that scenario, a large trade short IS justified. Very simple example but certainly a good one.

Quoting Squeeze
It's often stated that you could post the most profitable and tested edge on the front of the WSJ and FT and most retail traders would still mess it up. I think the Turtles experiment proved that. Your last line intrigues me, until individual traders move past that invention, dreamlike state into reality they'll never succeed in this business. There is no magic system, the real trick to this business is managing risk. Take care of the downside and the upside looks after itself isn't necessarily completely bullet proof but it's a message that's worth...
no
Quoting Bakker
I have a question for all you traders?

Did you ever look at a single bar or candle to make a judgement about which way the market is going to move?

I'll appreciate each and every reply. Thank you.
Quoting Squeeze
Hmm, I'm struggling to understand your lack of basic comprehension and lack of politeness...
LOL... when you get those replies, its lack of politeness but when you do it, its alright. You are funny little old man aren't you.

I would love to read your book how successful retail traders ALL operate with similar method. Given your age, there is possibility that you been with nothing less than 10,000,000 retails traders to come up with such statement. Have you ? just curious....
I'm not sure why you insist on bothering me whilst continually highlighting your immaturity and ignorance. I stated that in my experience, fyi that's on the other side of retail trades, all the successful retail traders I was aware of, who made a consistent living out of the industry,all followed very similar trading patterns. As the industry became more sophisticated, STP/ECN etc., it became slightly more difficult to track.

The common visualisation is that they'll be hunched over a bank of monitors playing their keyboard like an axe guitar, when in reality I'd say they spent less than an hour a day involved in trading and with the advent of mobile apps that could be cut down even further.


Quoting BenMario
LOL... when you get those replies, its lack of politeness but when you do it, its alright. You are funny little old man aren't you.

I would love to read your book how successful retail traders ALL operate with similar method. Given your age, there is possibility that you been with nothing less than 10,000,000 retails traders to come up with such statement. Have you ? just curious....
Quoting jaygee
no
Thanks jaygee, mush appreciated. Hope others will respond too.

This was a very important question. One day when I'm done with trading I will show you in detail how much this really matters.

I'm an old timer, so you don't have to wait long. Ha, ha!!
Quoting Bakker
I have a question for all you traders?

Did you ever look at a single bar or candle to make a judgement about which way the market is going to move?

I'll appreciate each and every reply. Thank you.
Since iam a day trader the answer is Yes. When the candle is closed above or below my targeted line, ill enter my position on next candle. 10 pips profit in 30 mins is way better for me than 100 pips in 6 months.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
single bar is meaningful in the context of all the other Bars.
One without the other has no meaning.
Simply asking questions doesn't guarantee an answer. Either accept my observation or don't.

Quoting BenMario
1. If iam bothering you, why are you replying ? lol

2. Those that YOU are aware of.. how many of them ? 5 ? 10 ? or 10,000,000. Its just a question. I have no idea why its so hard for you to answer.
Quoting Squeeze
Simply asking questions doesn't guarantee an answer. Either accept my observation or don't.
I wont because they are totally rubbish. Study based on 10 toothless loggers which YOU know makes no differences at all. Same goes with all the techniques used by retail traders. There's million more other techniques which NEVER been tested by "big-players" you are talking about. Unless you can explain to me with proof how the Japanese housewife made $4million+ couple of years back trading E/J. Did she apply the same method you are talking about ? since according to you ALL successful traders used the same method.
You're childish attempt to twist my words is silly. Sadly, for you, it isn't "rubbish", it's fact and your reference to one person is similar to referencing a lottery winner, in a statistical sample it has no relevance. The majority of successful retail traders that I've encountered, in the flesh, online, over the telephone, through email, skype account monitoring and management, who stayed the course for years, all operated in remarkably similar ways. I'd suggest they had an institutional bias. Their trading priorities and the principal description of their edge was also remarkably similar. There was no Eureka discovery amongst them...actually come to think of it perhaps there was, but the revelation would be missed by most.



Quoting BenMario
I wont because they are totally rubbish. Study based on 10 toothless loggers which YOU know makes no differences at all. Same goes with all the techniques used by retail traders. There's million more other techniques which NEVER been tested by "big-players" you are talking about. Unless you can explain to me with proof how the Japanese housewife made $4million+ couple of years back trading E/J. Did she apply the same method you are talking about ? since according to you ALL successful traders used the same method.
I've attempted to use the ignore function but It doesn't appear to work. This nuisance character simply insists on trolling me.


Quoting jaygee
Hey can you 2 give it a rest please. Let's talk trading please.
You've lost me here, are you talking standard position sizing? Also, are you using a standard setting (14) for RSI plotted on a weekly chart?

Quoting jaygee
Some people feel money management is the only risk they can manage. I try and trade according to perceived trade risk. WHat are the chances this trade goes wrong and increase size according to that diminishing risk according to historical success rates. For instance and simply in this case.....What are the chances a usd/jpy 87 weekly rsi will continue higher. Historically, the chances are near zero except for divergences but very very rarely then also. In that scenario, a large trade short IS justified. Very simple example but certainly a good one....
standard position sizing to start increased as the upper tf signals come into play. yes i use the 14 period rsi. show me another 87 weekly rsi that did not sell off considerably.

Quoting Squeeze
You've lost me here, are you talking standard position sizing? Also, are you using a standard setting (14) for RSI plotted on a weekly chart?
Some of the arguments here are really a laugh. I am very happy at some spectacular breakthroughs I have made using some incredibly unique insights in chaos math and fractal geometry, etc. My primary aims are to celebrate my attainments, share to the extent feasible some of what I use and know and encourage others to investigate along those lines.

There are in fact here two kinds of contacts those who know me, those (right here on FF) who exchange specific views on trades with me in private and those who in fact have seen my tools and at least one who uses them to very good effect. It cannot be everyone that I shall expose everything to - I have a responsibility to myself. But my intentions are good the tools and applications are real and they work making money for a lot of people and bringing the wow to the minds of many when they see the results and precision.

Now there are those who say it is a ruse there is nothing like that as in fact there cannot be - that in their experience (as if their experience is not just ordinary and trite) it is impossible. Should I break a sweat on account of those or should we just laugh at them - that is those who know how wrong and in fact silly those assertions sound. I guess it is up to others who are close enough to know the truth to respond - as for me the more of these caustic statements by absolute luadites I hear here the more convinced I am to speak out for those who dare to break the mold and have the brains and the more determined I am to ensure that nothing comes from me to the public domain that will help these ego trippers out of their misery. I am not being mean here - I doubt that anyone receiving the kinds of comments I get on occasion will be more charitable knowing that in fact traders such as are in the majority on this are so selfish and conceited they are best left to their current design - lest they boast and harass others on energy that someone else spent to make things better.

But what a laugh - and what a huge joke - the extent of ignorance and backwardness about. Happy trading to all good intentioned traders - meanwhile I made a killing in gold while airborne waiting for the Euro to move next and move it will but I am no longer free to say where.
Quoting Loadedgun
Some of the arguments here are really a laugh
Ignore the naysayers and keep doing what you're doing. I, for one, enjoy how you put all them fools into place!
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
For most of you, if you can learn to drive a car, you can learn to trade.. It is not all mumbo jumbo secret ways. It is a process that entails finding a way to judge probability of outcome and then actively managing the trade while it is on.
But one needs to find some way to assess what you see going on in front of your own face, then believing in it enough to take action. Over time some method you improvise from origin will be the one you stay with.
But the learning curve takes time, so trade small, make a lot of mistakes,(which you will), learn from the mistakes, and do not drive into a tree while you do this.
Quoting Guest
For most of you, if you can learn to drive a car, you can learn to trade.. It is not all mumbo jumbo secret ways.
First let us be clear - there is no secret in what I do it does however require time to read up and learn and apply the items I have indicated (just in case my piece prompted your response we need to be accurate and not engage in slander). Second, it is a new and exciting approach as those who have seen it or now use it will tell you - I merely said I am not gonna give it to the many nay sayers on a platter since they can spend time to find out about it on their own just as I did.

Of course the edge here is that it is far more profitable than anything you ever saw - far more comfortable to apply and indeed it changes ones whole perspective on trading. How would I know - because I believed in the same things you just outputted here and I know anyone thinking that way will remain nothing but a would be trader for the most part. Let us face it - those who really know do not say much. They are too busy making money - I would have shut up by now but many tell me to keep it at it and I see their point. Had I known to disregard conventional wisdom early (such as you have actually offered) - I would have been the better for it. The time wasted and money lost trying to trade by stupid things like fundamentals, silly crossover systems etc was really stupid and yet I thought it was my fault that it was because I lacked skill and ability and all I had to do was up those. Finally I asked the question - how does the market work? How does price move?

It was in answering those questions that I found the path and realized how hopeless it was for all others on my old path. That is why I talk at all. Soon I will stop altogether - because when you think about it why should I care? I got all I need and certainly I do not need aggravation from social and intellectual inferiors - persons not given to exploring ideas but insisting that everyone remain in the same caste because it gives them comfort that it is just a business where everyone is failure anyway - well I am not.

PS: Also there is no credibility in the analogy of driving a car - they are not parallels and if you do not know that then it must be the case that you have no real ambition to trade for a living or that you have any experience actually trading.
It's not often that I read a post on a forum and am left speechless by the breathtaking arrogance. Have you been posting in this manner and been left uncensored by the mods on here for some time?

Quoting Loadedgun
I am very happy at some spectacular breakthroughs I have made using some incredibly unique insights in chaos math and fractal geometry, etc. My primary aims are to celebrate my attainments, share to the extent feasible some of what I use and know and encourage others to investigate along those lines.

.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
Most of you would benefit by simply learning how to draw a trend line and how to use a moving average. If you can accomplish these acts in a way that gives you insight into the market, you have the foundation for a successful trading enterprise.
After that comes tending the garden when in a trade, and money management parameters prior to putting a trade on.

Beyond that learning how to keep your decisions from being affected by emotions, would go a long way to removing the roadblocks to success.
Quoting Loadedgun
Some of the arguments here are really a laugh..
It really is. To be honest, atleast 80% in this news section are here just for some numbers and which direction the market is heading. They dont care/bother about all the nonsenses. Iam here for Ben, Mario, FOMC and ECB. Everything else pretty much is useless.
What you cannot measure you cannot control or manage and I dare say begin to appreciate. As humans and in an endevour such as this the tendency is to judge all others by what we know as well as by our limitations - feeling those who really have exceptional insights cannot be in the same sphere as us. That is understandble - but in the age of the internet - a paradignm shift helps no matter how outdated you are. Lets not forget that those who made this forum possible were unknown upstarts working in a garage. Had they hinted at their dreams and visions - I am sure they would have been badly put down. I rest my case - though I feel somewhat insulted by the idea that we are somehow at par simply because I write on the pages of FF. This is not because I am a snob - but because I can tell the difference based as it were on uncommon effort, dedication and hard work and of course the grace of God. I really wish some knew who they were talking to. But it is a free world and I believe in free speech. Whichever way it plays we are equals in the end and each has a place no matter how irritating momentarily.
Quoting BenMario
LOL... when you get those replies, its lack of politeness but when you do it, its alright. You are funny little old man aren't you.

I would love to read your book how successful retail traders ALL operate with similar method. Given your age, there is possibility that you been with nothing less than 10,000,000 retails traders to come up with such statement. Have you ? just curious....
Missed this at first - obviously an intellectually collected poster unafraid of the world around him sure he can take anything on. I say cheers to you mate and all the best. Nice post.
Quoting Guest
Most of you would benefit by simply learning how to draw a trend line and how to use a moving average. If you can accomplish these acts in a way that gives you insight into the market, you have the foundation for a successful trading enterprise.
After that comes tending the garden when in a trade, and money management parameters prior to putting a trade on.

Beyond that learning how to keep your decisions from being affected by emotions, would go a long way to removing the roadblocks to success.
Oh no will not let this ride - I would ask really? So by how much have you done so (i.e. profited) personally? Without knowing any details about your trading I state without fear of contradiction that you sir are a net loser. Why? because crossovers do not work (cannot be used effectively) until you master fractal geometry and or fully appreciate modern fractal wave theory. You see they are at the heart of how price moves and mean reversion theory and as simple as they look ask anyone they are so confounding - given that you do not see the necessity for piercing the veil (i.e. learning to understand fractals and how price moves prelude to employing crossovers - I can bet any amount you have not seen profit in a long while whoever you are). When I say sinusoids what do you think I am talking about.

When you hear mean reversion what do you think is at the core? It is tough for people to use crossovers because they usually have no background on reversion structures and cannot tell per period or time frame what the market limits are. So yes sell when 13 MA crosses 25 MA down blah blah blah but what you do not know is that there are shorter term oscillations taking place (read shorter wavelengths) so without a clear understanding of how price moves such as I have been outlining - you have said nothing. No one who went to babypips would say they did not read crossovers etc so try something new and this is why and where the math resolves so much. Badmouthing the maths to which I speak is a real disservice not only is it ignorant of those who do so but they actively discourage others from breaking new grounds - so sad. Ditto for trend lines - which are worse because they are statics - in fact from reading this post I conclude that you sir are a noob.

BTW: At least one dude here deeply in debt by now I suspect given the preponderance of serial bad calls associated with him would love something simple to get him back on his feet - but just goes to show nothing is simple in the forex because until you understand the structure of fractals you understand nothing.
BTW and to be clear I am not talking about systems I am talking about understanding enough of and about price dynamics to define a system you want to trade. I personally do not trade a system and as I am sure those close to me on the forum will confirm - I really do not need one. It is all about being able to determine instantaneous momentum - the rest is profit. So sorry folks I do not do systems.

This crap talk about money management is crap talk. If you do not know direction no matter how careful you are you will end up wasted. More important to know direction or instantaneous momentum before worrying about silly money management techniques - the best defense against losses is a profit buffer and not a stop loss order.
Tomorrow starting 43 minutes my time is gonna be a heck of a day with pairs repositioning into the new month - not a time for inexperience or guessing - gonna love it.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
Did not talk about ma crossover.
Money management is about letting the probability of the method work out. It serves no other purpose then to prevent catastrophic loss from which an account cannot recover.

Information was free, if you do not have use for it, get over it and move on.

For anyone interested, you will learn more about trading by putting up a chart and putting in the time to find out what happens. Put some money on the line so when the mistake happens you will feel some pain and get the message not to do it again. Learn to be self reliant on your own ideas, it is the only way to reach your goal.

As a wise man said "You can learn a lot by watching"
Quoting Loadedgun
First let us be clear - there is no secret in what I do it does however require time to read up and learn and apply the items I have indicated (just in case my piece prompted your response we need to be accurate and not engage in slander). Second, it is a new and exciting approach as those who have seen it or now use it will tell you - I merely said I am not gonna give it to the many nay sayers on a platter since they can spend time to find out about it on their own just as I did.

Of course the edge here is that it is far more profitable than...

if you do stop posting...sadly the whole point of ff will end atleast for me.......too bad i started trading too early..should have completed my research before jumping in.....it is still gambling for me..
Quoting Squeeze
It's not often that I read a post on a forum and am left speechless by the breathtaking arrogance. Have you been posting in this manner and been left uncensored by the mods on here for some time?

dont wanna speak for loaded...he has said everything already ......but you are still without numbers my friend...and he has provided enough numbers already ..(talking about last few months)......so please get your facts straight
Quoting Guest
Did not talk about ma crossover.
Money management is about letting the probability of the method work out. It serves no other purpose then to prevent catastrophic loss from which an account cannot recover.

Information was free, if you do not have use for it, get over it and move on.

For anyone interested, you will learn more about trading by putting up a chart and putting in the time to find out what happens. Put some money on the line so when the mistake happens you will feel some pain and get the message not to do it again. Learn to be...
Sure not MA crossovers - still the same point since an MA crossover merely calculates and indicates per position the rate of change (which is more difficult to estimate by using MA's solo). But all the same tell us what you mean by learning to use an MA? Tell us how you can without a knowledge of fractal geometry. Thanks in advance.

BTW: What have you said here that babypips did not drill into everyone trading now with more detail, examples and exercises - what really is your point?
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
As the quote said "You can learn a lot by watching."
Self taught trading remains the best way to learn. Learning by finding out what works for the way an individuals mind works is done by trial and error over time. No magical answer, just endless hours in front of a screen reading price and what it does.

Market behavior is repetitive, there are only so many ways for price to act. After enough screen time those patterns become repetitive enough so that the individual learns to recognize them as they occur. Then takes action on what ever the prior learned outcome normally was. That establishes the basis for probability.

After enough time the trader will be able to even drop all the lines and indicators and just trade from the screen.
Quoting Loadedgun
Tomorrow starting 43 minutes my time is gonna be a heck of a day with pairs repositioning into the new month - not a time for inexperience or guessing - gonna love it.
seems like i have a lot of guessing to do

don't know why you said that you are not 'free' to mention where.............................although i understand your point of not spoon feeding .......your precision does amaze a little too much at times....how did you know what to do in gold?..i sold on stupid data for 30 pips...then bought twice for 50 pips more..but joined the rally late.. went with the flow listening to the bern ..your style is 'sugar free' ..
To be fair I only see the name and the length of posts and simply scan it and then dismiss it as waffle without reading it fully, if there's gold in the nuggets it must be buried very deep. But if you can provide a link on the main forum where I can forensically analyse this character's calls I'd be delighted to reverse my opinion. I won't hold my breath.

Quoting Fx Hiflyer
dont wanna speak for loaded...he has said everything already ......but you are still without numbers my friend...and he has provided enough numbers already ..(talking about last few months)......so please get your facts straight
Hi Loaded,

It goes without saying that what you talk about is based on truth. As a physicist and an avid believer in chaos theory, I can't ignore repeated attempts to understand just what makes the markets move.

There are many theories but it is obvious that finding out is not made to be discovered so easily. You piqued my curiosity when you mentioned that fractal geometry comes to play with it and hence sinusoid might be a great tool to employ to forecast direction.

I fail to understand some folks here who don't think of the importance of picking the right direction for without it one would be lost as a trader. You see congestion in the market (an accumulation phase) and then the real money is in correctly picking the right direction knowing WHAT was being accumulated (buy or sell order flow). This of course may apply to day trading but it could be true for longer periods enough to get that profit edge and hence the SL being hit is not something that would be justified by "my system told me to do that." I'm sorry but an understanding of what makes the market move is the foremost important condition to be born in mind before pulling the trigger on any given trade.

I have been a defender of yours against all the naysayers who simply don't grasp what you're bringing to the table, a real shame that they don't have an open mind to get their horizons in order.

I don't know how to get in touch with you, but I would consider it an honor if you were to take me under your able wings. Being a math and science buff I may even help you with refining your research. I am not interested in signals but I am very much hungry for the knowledge you have acquired, it will be a privilege to get to know you and follow your method of approaching the market.

Please PM so I can get started being a humble student of yours.

With many thanks,
John
Sentiment moves the market, nothing else.

Quoting Info Seeker
I can't ignore repeated attempts to understand just what makes the markets move.
Oh it is simple for me - do not forget I use a polynomial regression engine set to specific parameters. This non linear tool samples price points constantly over a defined range and based on price action updates my model on zero bar per time frame over a range and interpolate pivots (with deadly accuracy). Given a system of pivots that will be reached in real time (and since the regression engine uses the sampled data points to extrapolate a vector) reading moves is a piece of cake (see how stupid it is when people say idiotic things like there is no math it is just this and that idiotic convention?).

What happens is that the regression midline provides the main sinusoid allowing me to read off of the chart a market equation or polynomial function of a certain degree - (and if you can read and interpret polynomial functions and their graphs you would know that apart from other things you get to read the midline for end behaviors). Taking this and other sinusoids I have implemented along with tools I have created to complement my regression engine - I can tell exactly what the direction will be and where the wave or flow amplitude will end. That is about it.

BTW: I did not create the regression engine I was looking around on FF one day and chanced on a thread that focused non linear tools (almost all I use and have put together come from scouring FF threads - there is so much knowledge on FF it is amazing). But of course I was deeply read in chaos math, fractal geometry, fractal wave theory, sinusoidal functions (destructive and constructive interference etc) that I was able to model my ideas exactly to create the things I wanted. So can anyone with the time and mind to doing so. What is important is I rejected the stupid ideas around about how the market works and pitched my tent with MR and then found an even more sophisticated way to implement MR via Non linear regression engines.
Loaded,

Extremely interesting. We physicists always believe we can get anything in the world into an equation. Usually a polynomial. It is just how nature works. God in his grace perfected how matter and energy interact with each other in the space-time continuum and it is via these equations that we know how to deal with the world and discover newer and better things. Think in lines with GUT (Grand Unification Theory).

It is our final objective to put things together so we can see clearly where things are going. Random theory, chaos theory, string theory and most importantly the uncertainty principle help a great deal to achieve that.

When Squeeze talks about sentiment in the market, he shows a clear understanding of the human factor (psychological and otherwise). But what he doesn't show is an understanding of where sentiment comes from. Sentiment can change in a heart beat, so how would you determine direction and entry with relative certainty.

You see, there are forces that govern the universe and they interact with each other to form life as we know it. Every one of us has a halo of these energy lines derived from these forces that bind us to each other and to the world. Sentiment is no stranger to this. You understand the principles behind this and you may be on the right track to understand why markets move. You simply don't go on Facebook or Twitter to get Sentiment like some do. That is an absolute trap created by Market Makers to lure you in and part you from your cash.

At any rate, I think that yours, Loaded, is a unique and certainly very interesting method to approaching market behavior and once again I would ask that you would consider PMing me as I have no other way of contacting you in private. Or maybe I am missing something since I am new to this forum.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.126.16
Good posts you've made there. Relevant, clear and more importantly brief.


Quoting Guest
As the quote said "You can learn a lot by watching."
Self taught trading remains the best way to learn. Learning by finding out what works for the way an individuals mind works is done by trial and error over time. No magical answer, just endless hours in front of a screen reading price and what it does.

Market behavior is repetitive, there are only so many ways for price to act. After enough screen time those patterns become repetitive enough so that the individual learns to recognize them as they occur. Then takes action on what ever the prior...
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.3.189
Quoting Squeeze
Sentiment moves the market, nothing else.
But that is what the physicist and loaded gun have been telling everybody. I think why you are lost is the concepts may be too high for you to understand but it is the same - sentiment. That is why loaded guns is so ahead. How do you think sentiment shows up on a chart? Price direction and he has a unique way to show it accurately - that is all he has been saying and doing and we that follow him and know some math and physics have been kicking ourselves for not seeing this long before now. It is really funny you have been attacking instead of finding out more how he can make things clearer for you. Please stop arguing with loaded guns and get closer he has an amazing angle maybe the solution we all want and need. Best regards to all.

Saludos
There's a lot of common trading sense in your posts. The issues of probability and risk are sadly overlooked by many. And letting those probabilities work to your advantage, through repetition is also misunderstood and overlooked.

Quoting Guest
As the quote said "You can learn a lot by watching."
Self taught trading remains the best way to learn. Learning by finding out what works for the way an individuals mind works is done by trial and error over time. No magical answer, just endless hours in front of a screen reading price and what it does.

Market behavior is repetitive, there are only so many ways for price to act. After enough screen time those patterns become repetitive enough so that the individual learns to recognize them as they occur. Then takes action on what ever the...
Quoting Yigal5766
good for uds/jpy ??
The whole situation is good for Russian vodka!
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
Hi Squeeze

It takes a long time to let go of the why part of a trade that is so common to most perception, but in the end all we have is a probability of outcome and to trade in a manner that allows that probability to manifest.

good luck to you.
I really should simply give up conversing with any of you split personality characters championing this LG character and his unproven methods. The recent parabolic moves on yen as late as yesterday and the knock on affect was all about sentiment, not maths, physics, chaos or any other theory. If ever you needed reminding of what truly moves the fx market there it is perfectly illustrated yesterday evening.


Quoting Info Seeker
Loaded,

Extremely interesting. We physicists always believe we can get anything in the world into an equation. Usually a polynomial. It is just how nature works. God in his grace perfected how matter and energy interact with each other in the space-time continuum and it is via these equations that we know how to deal with the world and discover newer and better things. Think in lines with GUT (Grand Unification Theory).

It is our final objective to put things together so we can see clearly where things are going. Random theory, chaos theory,...
  • Comment #111
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 27, 2013 10:35am Feb 26, 2013 7:02pm | Edited Feb 27, 2013 10:35am
Quoting Info Seeker
Loaded,

Extremely interesting. We physicists always believe we can get anything in the world into an equation. Usually a polynomial. It is just how nature works. God in his grace perfected how matter and energy interact with each other in the space-time continuum and it is via these equations that we know how to deal with the world and discover newer and better things.
Well glad you have come along at least someone who actually read physics and who can therefore bear me out and douse the spurious claim of some here that I am speaking to something unscientific or that it is inapplicable in trading simply because some of the concepts involved are beyond them and they have not the curiosity or discipline to research the things I mention - yet they dream of becoming millionaires overnight - huge joke.

Will be in touch but you got to give me a lot of time as I never take on more than I can handle and if I am to be honest my plate is full right now. So please do not be offended if you do not hear from me straightaway. Right now I am going to be a bit tied up and you appreciate how trading goes as I know you do you know one needs focus and little things can throw one off.

In any case John yes from your opening statement I knew you understood chaos because you said "It is just how nature works" - clearly from the singularity the world expanded according to God's fractal design of all things. Let there be light was the instruction and bang all things came into being (hope you like cosmology and sound since they are the only two aspects of physics that give me the vibes plus I am a professional musician and so sound and waves have always been a concern). We will talk some more. Clearly like some guest alluded above the concepts are way beyond simple imagination and until and unless one has some idea of what a fractal is or how it is that chaos simply emanates from the fact that initial conditions cannot be specified for the system of interest to absolute infinity - it gets really tough to catch on the rest. Cheers
Quoting Info Seeker
As a physicist and an avid believer in chaos theory, I can't ignore repeated attempts to understand just what makes the markets move.
I can't deny that you're a physicist and avid believer in chaos theory. But, you're wrong in giving credits to someone else rather than the researchers who discover it. It's not if someone is a proponent of a theory then he can get all the credits. You can tell me why he deserves all the credits rather than the researchers, except he uses someone else theory and discovery and claims them.
Quoting Info Seeker
I am new to this forum.
Welcome aboard Sir.

Physics? Space-time continuum? Unified theory applied in trading?
Extremely interesting? And on top of that a physicist talks about the grace of God?
My man! Where were you hiding? You and I will surely need to talk soon.


BTW. I didn't regret so far holding eurusd and something tells me I won't regret it in the near future either simply because price refuses to make that simple move. But I may be wrong. Whatever the case profits are already locked
Make me a prophet and I'll make you rich. - Me
On a second thought, but not on a second guess anymore, who's that something telling me I'll regret that I took the money and run? Already cost me 10% profits from the moment i payed atention to it
Make me a prophet and I'll make you rich. - Me
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.119.228
Quoting Loadedgun
Well glad you have come along at least someone who actually read physics and who can therefore bear me out and douse the spurious claim of some here that I am speaking to something unscientific or that it is inapplicable in trading simply because some of the concepts involved are beyond them and they have not the curiosity or discipline to research the things I mention - yet they dream of becoming millionaires overnight - huge joke.

Will be in touch but you got to give me a lot of time as I never take on more than I can handle and if I am to be...
Consulting Morgan Stanley??
Loaded,

No problem, I understand as even though I can walk and chew gum at the same time, I'd rather allocate enough focus, energy and time for everything worthy of them as a separate event. That's the only way to get goals achieved, otherwise one would be in a number of events (important though they may be individually) but never seeming to get ahead in any of them. Chaos (LOL) in its true meaning.

Oh some will say we can do multitasking. That is true. However, I've yet to meet a happy, healthy and sane multitasker. We can manage everyday life tasks simultaneously, sure, it has become part of our being, but never the tasks that in themselves require that laser sharp focus, unless of course, you have a team in which you have absolute confidence and then you designate responsibilities which means, congratulations, you've just become a manager who will probably enjoy success but who will also lose that sweet feeling of individual achievement.

Keep your focus on what you deem requires it, Sir. Whenever you're ready I'll be looking forward to your communique. Thank you.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.183.221
Mentoring Jamie Dimon on how to play ( fix) the price of silver and coaching him how to conduct the recent annual general meeting? All that from a weak Skype connection from Lagos. No end to the talents...

Quoting Guest
Consulting Morgan Stanley??
Dear frx trader,

Quoting frx_trader
I can't deny that you're a physicist and avid believer in chaos theory. But, you're wrong in giving credits to someone else rather than the researchers who discover it. It's not if someone is a proponent of a theory then he can get all the credits. You can tell me why he deserves all the credits rather than the researchers, except he uses someone else theory and discovery and claims them.
You seem to be misinterpreting what Loaded is saying. I don't remember him claiming to be the father of chaos theory. In fact on a number of occasions he stated that everything he uses he got from this forum. He then tweaked, added and enhanced to get to an approach that he's bringing to the table. Just because he uses certain mathematical theories to do that does not mean he claims these theories for himself.

In scientific fields, it is usually NOT the theories themselves that turn out to be what is useful to us but rather the application of these theories in something of value. Many scientists spend a lifetime to formulate a theory but not live long enough to see it become a law the use of which can be applied in everyday life.

I believe your problem with Loaded is not about his applications or methodology but rather the personality. He may come out to you as arrogant whose nose is in the sky, but that is just false. You see, it is about being tolerant. No matter how much one tries to convey an idea which in his/her own opinion could help make changes in important matters, being met with intolerant people not willing to change anything using sarcastic comments to put him/her down will eventually lead to him/her being intolerant also. That can manifest itself in a number of ways one of which is to think that these people don't understand, and if their methodologies are based on failing results that prove themselves over and over then he/she can also call them stupid and be sarcastic of them.

Give the man a chance and you'll discover what he's bringing to the table is very much worth studying in the minimum. Who knows, if you then like what he says you may even benefit from it materially via an alternative and different approach to trading.

My friend, if we just listen to each other (rather than just hearing each other) and have enough tolerance this world can be a much better place. I believe your sincerity and I thank you for defending people's credits as they should always be defended, but I kindly ask you to give the man a chance. You may be surprised.

If for whatever reason you don't grasp something or feel you're missing something then by all means ask. You'll find that when you start getting the idea, you'll be forced to delve deep into it and hence you've just expanded your horizons. That is nothing to snare at.

I hope I have gained you as friend and that you don't think of me as a preacher. My intent is to give you my opinion of what loaded's approach can do to trading.

I wish you the best.
Mods can you please kill this thread an re-instate the ignore function? Surely this licence you've given this character, to post as numerous identities, has been pushed too far?


Quoting Info Seeker
Dear frx trader,



You seem to be misinterpreting what Loaded is saying. I don't remember him claiming to be the father of chaos theory. In fact on a number of occasions he stated that everything he uses he got from this forum. He then tweaked, added and enhanced to get to an approach that he's bringing to the table. Just because he uses certain mathematical theories to do that does not mean he claims these theories for himself.

In scientific fields, it is usually NOT the theories themselves that turn out to be what is useful to us but...
Quoting Timetraveler
Welcome aboard Sir.

Physics? Space-time continuum? Unified theory applied in trading?
Extremely interesting? And on top of that a physicist talks about the grace of God?
My man! Where were you hiding? You and I will surely need to talk soon.
Thank you, Sir. I appreciate your welcome.

Where was I hiding? Right here my man. Truth be told I was lurking in this forum for a number of months now, browsing, reading, learning, enjoying and sometimes outright laughing. This is a very good forum that encompasses everything you need to understand traders' mentality and approaches.

Now that I have chosen to participate and interact (time allowing) I think that it will be even better once I get the mechanics of handling the site from being a reader to being an active member. Just like anything else it'll take time but I'll grasp it soon enough. I still don't know if the forum has the capability of updating automatically. I mean if I commented to you and you responded do I have to refresh the page to see your response (as I am doing now) or is there an RSS capability that will update the page once a new comment is added? I still have some homework to do on the mechanics of the site.

As to the main subject, yes, a physicist who is also a believer. I know it does not compute but why shouldn't it. I don't believe in science vs. religion but rather in the science-religion fusion. They are one and the same. Each explains the other flawlessly if you were to remove the brain barrier (not the brain). It is a tall subject that this forum is certainly not a venue for. But what this forum is about goes directly into both avenues and that is what I will try to contribute to help my fellow traders. Science (or scientific rules) govern everything we know of in the universe (including the trading universe). I know this is a heavy statement for some traders but it is a fact. The market is not random. It is in fact cyclical, harmonic and deliberate. The other side (religion) gets into the psychology and discipline of trading. The more disciplined you are (patience is a virtue) the more your probability of success in trading when you apply the proper methodology. So as you see the two for me go hand in hand. It just requires an open and tolerant mind and to be humble for we have not cracked the code yet and we have just scratched the surface.

I look forward to communicating with you and hope it will prove beneficial to both of us and this forum.

regards,

John
Quoting Squeeze
To be fair I only see the name and the length of posts and simply scan it and then dismiss it as waffle without reading it fully, if there's gold in the nuggets it must be buried very deep. But if you can provide a link on the main forum where I can forensically analyse this character's calls I'd be delighted to reverse my opinion. I won't hold my breath.

just saw your post....haven't read the rest of the posts yet............anyway..in the beginning i used to do the same...when i started reading his long posts i started making sense out of it.............he has on numerous occasions talked about direction ..when euro was in 29 28 area ..he was the only one talking about euro exploding upwards....i remember people telling him that his system can only show euro bull etc etc....i remember once he was long on euro and it turned from 1.3 area...and everyone became a pain in his ass..but he took the criticism ..and euro broke the resistance in the next wave.........but you know when he really started freaking me out is when he started giving exact no.s of retracement and bounce backs and what not ..he has helped me get out of stupid trades so many times.......there are alot of things im not mentioning here...but the important part for you is that either this market is manipulated and loaded knows someone on the inside ...or his calculations really work..
Quoting Info Seeker
Dear frx trader,

You seem to be misinterpreting what Loaded is saying....
Oh, really? So, what is my interpretation? Let me entertain you that I don't have any interest in him. And seems to me it's you that have the wrong interpretation about my comment.

Quote
In scientific fields, it is usually NOT the theories themselves that turn out to be what is useful to us but rather the application of these theories in something of value. Many scientists spend a lifetime to formulate a theory but not live long enough to see it become a law the use of which can be applied in everyday life.

Are you telling me you know more than me about scientists? You wouldn't say such thing if you are a scientist.

Quote
Give the man a chance and you'll discover ... if you then like what he says you may even benefit from it materially via an alternative and different approach to trading.

Sorry, I don't entertain him. It's the readers who must be entertained not the the writer.

Quote
My friend, if we just listen to each other... but I kindly ask you to give the man a chance. You may be surprised.

Are you a utopian? But don't blame me if he doesn't get his chance.

Quote
I wish you the best.

Wish you the best. We agree to disagree. The end.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.142.34
Why not post that up in Wilmott, I'd be interested in seeing the reaction :-)

Quoting Loadedgun
Oh it is simple for me - do not forget I use a polynomial regression engine set to specific parameters. This non linear tool samples price points constantly over a defined range and based on price action updates my model on zero bar per time frame over a range and interpolate pivots (with deadly accuracy). Given a system of pivots that will be reached in real time (and since the regression engine uses the sampled data points to extrapolate a vector) reading moves is a piece of cake (see how stupid it is when people say idiotic things like there...
Ooh..nicely done, I see what you did there.

Quoting Guest
Why not post that up in Wilmott, I'd be interested in seeing the reaction :-)
lol you guys are still at it. so funny.
Here's how it works; a poster who wants and needs followers to throw him a bit of spare change over in Lagos, through PayPal or Western Union, should post up his exact time stamped and dated calls over on the main FF forum. Generic calls of "I think that market may go up/sideways/down here" are irrelevant...

Once I see the calls over a period of 12 months I can judge the sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, monthly and annual returns, the monthly standard deviation, Alpha v S&P500, etc, etc... I can also see/measure the correlation analysis versus the usual gauges.

So I take it there is no link or such evidence just puff & air waffle.


Quoting Fx Hiflyer
what about his last call of market going 32 and 31 when it was on 35 !!..don't tell me you missed that too !?.............i don't know why you cant find his posts ..you must be asking me to save yourself the trouble!
Ah-ha, you're a regular on here so I'll ask you, have you got a link to the calls this LG character has made? I'm genuinely interested as to whether he takes anything out of the market.


Quoting jaygee
lol you guys are still at it. so funny.
Quoting frx_trader
Are you telling me you know more than me about scientists? You wouldn't say such thing if you are a scientist.

Wish you the best. We agree to disagree. The end.
Sir,

I am not telling you anything. I don't know who you are and you certainly didn't mention it to me, but if you are a fellow scientist then what I said should not conflict with your knowledge. If, however, you are not a scientist but follow science and the people that clarify its roots to the world or indeed discover new things in life, then what I said is just how the scientific world works. Forgive me but I am a scientist not a mind reader. You also don't know me so logically you cannot assume to know more than I do about scientists.

I only tried to respond to your comment and tried to show you how I looked at the man from my perspective. I tried, you didn't have to accept and that is something completely up to you. You said it best, we agree to disagree. That is not bad at all. In fact it is very civilized and I thank you for that.
Quoting Info Seeker
Sir,

Forgive me but I am a scientist not a mind reader.

lol
Hmm..this is curious. You've been registered only 4 months, yet cite 6 moths. So your natural response would be that you simply lurked on the site worshiping this character's calls from afar. Moving on we can finally nail this. This character has nothing in terms of forward or back testing to prove how his theories work. Ergo his encyclopedia efforts have been a pointless exercise, no more than harmless occupational therapy for traders to point fingers of fun at during leisure time. Oh well.


Quoting Fx Hiflyer
i thought you are a reasonable guy ....but now you are pissing me off.........i can talk for the last 6 months and i am not talking about generic calls..i have no reason to support the guy !.....if you are being stubborn like spreadbetter than i cant help you ..and i dont need to prove you shit.........goodluck ..bye
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.142.34
I often wonder if trading or desperately wanting to trade but not having the funds to trade can make people ill. Do they construct a world of make believe in order to kid themselves that they're involved?
Anyone who believes that trading the markets involves a formula of sorts is still at the novice stage. Nothing wrong with that as long as you're not dishonest. So there is no link on FF where you've placed your calls and naturally, given your inexperience, you're reluctant to post calls live for fear of opening yourself up to close examination and further ridicule.

Taking this further you're so adamant regarding your "modelling" as you term it but have not tested it live or back tested. I'm sorry to say this but you're a dreamer and in a bit of a mess aren't you? Well if that's the end of your contribution then fine, however, if you continue to post I guess everyone (who even gives you a moment's thought I'm sure there's many who see your posts and chuckle or sigh) will just issue a one word response - "proof?"


Quoting Loadedgun
For a desperado in search of a trading formula you really got guts. I assure you I will now talk about my ideas even more but no more calls you can use. I do not want to hookup on the explorer for the same reason because it is clear you are a friend to the house and they have allowed you license - so can't trust what you will see and pass on. I only talk to my friends when there is something to pass on now on the web. You will not get anything buddy not from me - not even calls anymore - I will talk to my friends from secure locations. Hahaaahaa...
Quoting Info Seeker
Sir,

I am not telling you anything. I don't know who you are and you certainly didn't mention it to me, but if you are a fellow scientist then what I said should not conflict with your knowledge. If, however, you are not a scientist but follow science and the people that clarify its roots to the world or indeed discover new things in life, then what I said is just how the scientific world works. Forgive me but I am a scientist not a mind reader. You also don't know me so logically you cannot assume to know more than I do about scientists.

I...
Quite obvious, I am frx trader, and you are Info seeker. I trade, you seek. None of us is scientist.
loaded why do they keep on mentioning you taking money for trade signals??.......take more than half of my pips but please dont stop your signals .................and on a serious note...please come to my country ..i have a few big investors here..i would kill to work with you ...and we are also known for our hospitality
Quoting Fx Hiflyer
i have requested before and i am doing again ....please open you pm or someway i can talk to you....il lose all my money without your calls..i am serious!
We will find a way but clearly some people are using stuff to get along and then rather than show a spirit of cooperation start all manner of rubbish - I must put a stop to that. But more importantly I am not a service and was making calls without the impression that my calls were more important than other calls being made here by others. Really the intent was to get people interested in the ideas of chaos etc in the hope that with more traders investigating stuff a whole lot more will be brought into the open for the common good. This puts a lot of pressure on me to feel that people will lose money without me coming around and it is unfair if you get my meaning. So please just accept that sometimes I will be incommunicado. Cheers
You have a clear and straight forward opportunity to prove your knowledge and that all your random mathematical modelling works. Post up live calls on a thread in FF proving your methods. Do that you have an audience, but I suspect there's a reason why you won't, or can't. I'd suggest that no one has taken your generic market direction calls seriously given they were probably loose and within a direction and range of hundreds of pips.

Quoting Loadedgun
We will find a way but clearly some people are using stuff to get along and then rather than show a spirit of cooperation start all manner of rubbish - I must put a stop to that. But more importantly I am not a service and was making calls without the impression that my calls were more important than other calls being made here by others. Really the intent was to get people interested in the ideas of chaos etc in the hope that with more traders investigating stuff a whole lot more will be brought into the open for the common good. This puts a lot...
Quoting frx_trader
Quite obvious, I am frx trader, and you are Info seeker. I trade, you seek. None of us is scientist.
Tells you IS - how low you are gonna have to go to communicate. Sad
Dont you get it LG ?

Hes been losing couple of hundreds on his fxcm micro account. Spare him some signal so his account can grow back to $1000. Hes been desperately asking you for your signals for weeks now if i recall correctly. It would be kind of you to help the old man living his final days on charity.
Quoting Loadedgun
We will find a way but clearly some people are using stuff to get along and then rather than show a spirit of cooperation start all manner of rubbish - I must put a stop to that. But more importantly I am not a service and was making calls without the impression that my calls were more important than other calls being made here by others. Really the intent was to get people interested in the ideas of chaos etc in the hope that with more traders investigating stuff a whole lot more will be brought into the open for the common good. This puts a lot...


i never wanted to mention how important your calls were for the same reason...i did not want you to feel any pressure...but when you said you will leave this forum i just had to speak out
Jeez, bring out the dead. How's the 100 lot trading silver on InstaForex doing from your two million account? You know those fund managers who you visit in New York when you get a cheap quantus flight after saving up you fx r rebates, don't they ever suggest moving over to DB and using Autobahn?

Quoting BenMario
Dont you get it LG ?

Hes been losing couple of hundreds on his fxcm micro account. Spare him some signal so his account can grow back to $1000. Hes been desperately asking you for your signals for weeks now if i recall correctly. It would be kind of you to help the old man living his final days on charity.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting BenMario
Dont you get it LG ?

Hes been losing couple of hundreds on his fxcm micro account. Spare him some signal so his account can grow back to $1000. Hes been desperately asking you for your signals for weeks now if i recall correctly. It would be kind of you to help the old man living his final days on charity.


i read your post yesterday somewhere when you said you will sell after the 50 points movement...i wanted to short too...but i dont know why i didnt..and i read your post late too or i would have..was short of confidence............good trade i must say!
Bad signal for Euro Zone, Italy EU membership should be suspended and help italy to recover from crisis. Once crisis is over then EU restore italy membership.
Quoting Fx Hiflyer
i read your post yesterday somewhere when you said you will sell after the 50 points movement...i wanted to short too...but i dont know why i didnt..and i read your post late too or i would have..was short of confidence............good trade i must say!
No worries mate. Forex market wont run. Theres always 2moro. The very reason why i choose to be day trader. Take your profit everyday and withdraw 50% every 2 weeks. Once your initial capital +100 % profit is out, you have "free money" to trade with.
Could Italy default?

Quoting regme
Bad signal for Euro Zone, Italy EU membership should be suspended and help italy to recover from crisis. Once crisis is over then EU restore italy membership.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
I'm being serious here, you haven't created a trading plan, you need to and quickly. You then plan the trades and trade the plan. What you don't do is take specific trading advice regarding trades or calls, from delusional fantasists who can't or won't prove track records, lurking on forums.

Quoting Fx Hiflyer
i read your post yesterday somewhere when you said you will sell after the 50 points movement...i wanted to short too...but i dont know why i didnt..and i read your post late too or i would have..was short of confidence............good trade i must say!
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
I'm being serious here, you haven't created a trading plan, you need to and quickly. You then plan the trades and trade the plan. What you don't do is take specific trading advice regarding trades or calls, from delusional fantasists who can't or won't prove track records, lurking on forums.

yes i know i need to work on my trading plan..................but taking calls from mr loaded has worked for me everytime...so please stop defying the obvious..please..i beg you..stop!
Quoting Spreadbetter
I'm being serious here, you haven't created a trading plan, you need to and quickly. You then plan the trades and trade the plan. What you don't do is take specific trading advice regarding trades or calls, from delusional fantasists who can't or won't prove track records, lurking on forums.

and what is the point of a trading plan without knowing the direction...
Quoting Fx Hiflyer
and what is the point of a trading plan without knowing the direction...
Dude, you have no future in this business if you plan to rely on other people's calls and spoon-feeding.
You need to stop what you think is trading right now and dyor on what a trading plan is and how you put it to work. First rule of a trading plan is that you never breach the rules, and if you're taking random noise trades spat out as incomprehensible gibberish on here from these frauds and comedians, you'll never develop your plan or as a trader. Just to give you a clue if I/we trade off low time frames and levels its the same day after day. The percentage risked on an individual trade is never breached, trailing stops are used and never moved, if you experience a drawdown of 2% in a day (3 sessions) you're locked out. This game, from your side, is an exercise in risk a d probability. Anyone telling you otherwise is talking out of their straw hat.

Quoting Fx Hiflyer
and what is the point of a trading plan without knowing the direction...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
I'd never considered that the market is charitable. Interesting concept


Quoting BenMario
If age decides success, i wonder why you a living on charity.
Quoting Squeeze
Id' never considered that the market is charitable. Interesting concept
It would if you look up for life time failure Fat bald oldman wasting public library's resources posting nonsense on FF and trading with fxcm demo micro account. Try it, it would make some sense.
How bizarre, being exposed as a pathological liar has upset you. Perhaps you'll learn a lesson.

Quoting BenMario
It would if you look up for life time failure Fat bald oldman wasting public library's resources posting nonsense on FF and trading with fxcm demo micro account. Try it, it would make some sense.
Quoting Squeeze
How bizarre, being exposed as a pathological liar has upset you. Perhaps you'll learn a lesson.
O.o seem like you are.. come on now, be happy. Not that you got much days to live. You and your demo fxcm micro account. lol
Quoting Mong00se
Dude, you have no future in this business if you plan to rely on other people's calls and spoon-feeding.
Quoting Spreadbetter
You need to stop what you think is trading right now and dyor on what a trading plan is and how you put it to work. First rule of a trading plan is that you never breach the rules, and if you're taking random noise trades spat out as incomprehensible gibberish on here from these frauds and comedians, you'll never develop your plan or as a trader. Just to give you a clue if I/we trade off low time frames and levels its the same day after day. The percentage risked on an individual trade is never breached, trailing stops are used and never moved,...

i don't know what you are trying to say spready...........only yesterday i was saying how i jumped into trading too soon...without completing my research or finding an edge..so i am not going to argue with you guys because you have a point ..i have been extremely lucky and a little smart too because i realized real quick who is the comedian and who means business
I couldn't be clearer, if you can't figure out the gist of my brief heads up then I don't know what to say to you or where you go tbh. Your career your choice, not my concern

Quoting Fx Hiflyer
i don't know what you are trying to say spready...........only yesterday i was saying how i jumped into trading too soon...without completing my research or finding an edge..so i am not going to argue with you guys because you have a point ..i have been extremely lucky and a little smart too because i realized real quick who is the comedian and who means business
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
[quote=Spreadbetter;6478778]I couldn't be clearer, if you can't figure out the gist of my brief heads up then I don't know what to say to you or where you go tbh. Your career your choice, not my concern[/quo


trailing stops are used and never moved, if you experience a drawdown of 2% in a day (3 sessions) you're locked out. This game, from your side, is an exercise in risk a d probability ????..
easier english would be appreciated
Guys, guys!! Will you stop fighting and rather tell me what is EXACTLY meant with PRICE ACTION?

The best answer will be the winner of this long and tiresome discourse.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
Bakker if you are interested in price action, watch the charts and make the judgment as to who holds the stronger hand supply or demand. The interaction between the two is what produces the patterns that will become evident over time.
As it has been pointed out sentiment of the millions of people who are the market is what moves the market.
People have behaviors and those behaviors get expressed as sentiment. Repetitive behavior produces repetitive patterns, that is why patterns have probabilities of outcome.
Research some of the Authors out there who have written on the subject and read their books. What you see real time will be explained as principles. This is an interpretive skill and takes quite some time to get a handle on it,
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
Would add, when you learn to read price action you will also understand how the market is responding to the big picture fundamental events that are the primary drivers of Forex.
Quoting Spreadbetter
Could Italy default?
How would it affect the price of fish - such irrelevancies merely distract from the job at hand no wonder you are neutral the Euro and all else that is trading - seems to me you would rather be a commentator if people would listen to you (unlikely) or a trainer if you could getaway with it (more unlikely).
Quoting frx_trader
Quite obvious, I am frx trader, and you are Info seeker. I trade, you seek. None of us is scientist.
LOL. You didn't have to say that, now. Did you? This truly brought images to my mind of little kids in elementary school saying something like: "I may have a rash today but you are fat."

So you don't get it. Let me elaborate a little. Scientists ALWAYS seek. They seek knowledge, truth, facts, and most importantly new information. That's why when you become a scientist you have to keep abreast of what is taking place after you get your formal education. That is exactly why there are specialized scientific journals. In fact, it is embedded in human nature. Have you heard the adage 'you learn something new everyday'? Man keeps learning new things from the moment at birth to the day he dies. It may not be direct learning every time but it is learning on a subconscious level all the time. It is just that we, scientists, like it to be a little more pronounced.

I did a little digging and I found out where you're from and since I highly respect your country and region of the world for what is being achieved from an EM point of view, I'll stop it right here. Plus need I remind you that we agreed to disagree. Let's leave it at that.

Oh, and please don't comment back saying I called you fat. For all I know you could be as thin as a pencil. It was just an example, but I'm sure you got that one.

Best of luck to you in your trading.
Quoting Guest
Bakker if you are interested in price action, watch the charts and make the judgment as to who holds the stronger hand supply or demand. The interaction between the two is what produces the patterns that will become evident over time.
As it has been pointed out sentiment of the millions of people who are the market is what moves the market.
I don't know who you are, Guest ... 160.145, but what you described is not what price action is. Regardless, if what you said is working for you, I couldn't be happier, but if it isn't then know this (the why): Sentiment is a word used by the big honchos, via media, authors, webinars and let's not forget the "experts" to lure you into the market to improve their positioning and part you from your cash. That's why they are called Market Makers.

Sentiment from a psychology POV is a valid concept of the psyche, but in trading terms it cannot be measured. How can you trade sentiment? When you hear of something that gives you a certain feeling that drives YOUR sentiment, how can you be sure others don't have the opposite feeling depending on their own interpretation hence driving their own sentiment the other way. Different events affect various people differently. It is when there's an outside force, convincing enough to let the masses believe what they want them to believe that sentiment can align but not without dear cost. Just look at the many poor slobs that rode the yen trade recently thinking it would never end. That was sentiment. When the honchos were done they pulled the rug all of a sudden and the sentiment changed in a heart beat and it headed the other way back with a lot of positions from the masses being squeezed.

Retail money by itself won't move the market. Retail needs liquidity and this latter comes from the Market Makers who will give you everything for free, charts, education, news feeds, the shirt off their backs because they really like you? Or maybe because they make 1 pip spread off of your mini lot position? Come on. Where is your common sense? The market moves because there needs to be a market in the first place to serve the big picture, the interests of world trade and commerce, credit swaps, and most importantly manipulating debts, hence not for the benefit of the retail trader. Retail traders are merely the loan providers that don't know they won't get paid back, but are always willing to loan again because they always think they will get paid. That's why the majority of retail traders fail. They have no idea what they're doing but are encompassed in a dream of making it rich by pressing buttons whilst they are in their pajamas in front of their screens with their eyes, red though they may be, glued for fear they'll miss the split second that could cause a margin call.

The political dynamics, big interests, huge gambles and most importantly GREED is what drives the market. Just like in wars. Don't get sideways-ed by the news most of which is fabricated or exaggerated to drive the market to what the news originator intended. Why do you think Bernanke, Trichet, Draghi, Carney and the rest are considered most powerful people? They can move the world the way they want at anytime with a few vague words that get interpreted as sentiment. With very few exceptions, I've yet to hear one of them say clearly what their intention is. They carefully word their statements in vague ways to confuse and to give them lee way to deny should time prove they were wrong. That is why it is not important what they say on decision day, but you have to wait for the minutes to decipher the possible true meaning days later or.

To be successful in trading, you have to be aware of the world's history and the Macro dynamics of the world, including macro economics, geography, sociology, demography to name a few of the ingredients which will give you a general understanding of the big picture, then it is your job to find an edge, for in reality, it will always be a matter of probability which is derived from math. I dare say if you can calculate probabilities reasonable correctly on the fly it may help you as a day trader given that every thing else is in place.

Trading is not an easy thing to do, but great marketing efforts have certainly made it a deceivingly alluring business for the masses who are by nature looking for the cheap (better yet free), easy, and quick. Nothing in life is free, except the air you breath which is on its way to be so polluted it may be taxed. If you want to trade successfully, you have to have common sense, be willing to learn, study and ask questions that are hard to answer, and perhaps most importantly be willing to accept hard truths and when you think you're ready, you have to absolve yourself from any thing that can drag you down including negative emotions and very positive ones.

But whatever you do, please don't just get in head first without being prepared, and if things don't go your way, don't blame anyone but yourself, not your wife, your kids, your friends or especially your circumstances because YOU were the one who pressed the button. Plus if you've done your homework right, things will go your way the next time and will only improve as you keep at it.

p.s. This was meant sincerely not just to our mysterious guest but to any one who may stumble on it. Please don't read it if you're drunk or operating heavy machinery, the consequences for some brains could be drastic.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
Info Seeker, am curious if you actually read my post. It quite clearly says that sentiment produces the observable patterns that are to be seen in the price structure. The resulting patterns are the basis for the probability assessment.
Wtf! What would happen if Italy defaulted? Actually, come to think of it you highlight an interesting point, for some people, for example, those who have created for themselves a fantasy world amongst the scammers in Lagos, Italy defaulting wouldn't make much of a difference, might stiff Nigeria oil Cos on a few million barrels of oil but hey, wtf...

Wrt being "neutral" on the euro positions change

Quoting Loadedgun
How would it affect the price of fish - such irrelevancies merely distract from the job at hand no wonder you are neutral the Euro and all else that is trading - seems to me you would rather be a commentator if people would listen to you (unlikely) or a trainer if you could getaway with it (more unlikely).
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Presumably you're talking about the 'art' of reading price action through classic candlestick patterns, price reaching or failing to reach higher highs or lower lows, interpreting patterns etc. Do you realise that some of the finest books ever written on the subject are available to buy, from a store you may have heard of called Amazon?

There's a site called forex factory that just might have covered this subject many times. Try Steve Nison's books, you won't go wrong.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=350832

Quoting Bakker
Guys, guys!! Will you stop fighting and rather tell me what is EXACTLY meant with PRICE ACTION?

The best answer will be the winner of this long and tiresome discourse.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
  • Comment #166
  • Quote
  • Edited Feb 28, 2013 7:45am Feb 27, 2013 4:29pm | Edited Feb 28, 2013 7:45am
What folks need to keep in mind is that direction is a unitary phenomenon. The trend in M1 is in no sense isolated from the trend in MN. Therefore, even for day traders my advice is when it is close to the end of a month - take it easy and watch the market (unless of course you have a specific setup that violates that).

In fractal analysis the unit for any given pair is the current monthly bar and like all time frames the unitary or monthly time frame has a range and it is important to keep that in mind. For instance the monthly bar fluctuates vertically but these vertical movements (up and down within the current monthly bar) is what expresses as 4 weekly bars, 20 daily bars 120 4 hour bars etc in the same period. Now it would be irrational to expect certain movements at the end of a period and just as we have in soccer (BTW Nigeria is champion of Africa) there is always a period of build up from end to end of the playing field or playing range. This is one reason why I think those who take too literally the idea that fundamentals move markets (without knowledge of the actual mechanics of that movement) lack a lot of common sense and are at a considerable disadvantage (especially in forming expectations and implementing trading plans).

You need to wait for the month to end (speaking to long term traders and risk averse day traders) and for the market to initialize (yes stupid - the market initializes very simple). The process involves the recalibration or repositioning if you like of the pit trader pivots on the monthly scale (just like day traders see every tradeday on that scale). This is an important part of trading sense. Those pivots or averages have very important meaning in the economics of large sized traders and therefore in there strategy and actions (I mean those who move markets) - in any month price is either trading above or below the initial average established at the start and deviates away positively or negatively to reach specific lines on the scale. Similarly, towards the end of the month or at the end of the month price tends to revert to the mean in retracement whether it had traveled up or down relative to current average and this is one way to get your bearing and work out possible pivots (simple is it not? But comes from real knowledge of how price moves) - this happens every single month and please close that dropped jaw - do you mean you never noticed or checked? In all markets whether for tomatoes or the forex traders take their bearing per period from averages - we see it done here dynamically each period (including daily or even hourly periods though far less obvious).

Of course trading is not for everyone and it is not high brow econometrics that makes a trader. It is the feel for the market and this is what I am talking about or at least an aspect of it.

Now this is not mean reversion at all - it is an aspect of the mechanics that define mean reverting markets but what I just described is not mean reversion as mean reversion theory itself is more, i.e. far more powerful, simpler and profitable as a concept. However, just to let you know that the actions of markets are rational - very rational and nothing at all random if you manage to appreciate chaos and at the same time have the patience to understand fractal geometry and modern wave theory in order to track the market and trade - which is different from economic analysis which I grant for the most part is irrelevant to actual trading decisions (and in which I am trained and fully certified and therefore know where and when it does not apply).

Will not go into further into details but observe what I have here outlined and consider the implications. In addition, observe how in all cases we are talking volatility, deviation, mean reversion, unit, fractal (and fractions), time dimensions, chaos, etc. Also important to add that mean reversion theory is so powerful and precise exactly because it is the only true chaotic theory of the market - one that comprehends all events and therefore explains the market exactly without the need for extraneous considerations - i.e. what we call exogenous events (such as eco events, fundamentals and all that crap). Why? Because it will be double counting and would most likely lead the uninitiated to second guess the market. Causing the theoretician (that is how I refer to one with exceptional insights to markets NOT trader) to take his eyes off the ball (watching the man and not the ball is a technical failure in soccer - and yes soccer can be used it is a chaotic system just like the market as is population growth, the weather, GDP growth, etc). The market therefore is transparent - it is our lack of grasp that leads to enormous confusion and the silly emotions we allow to overcome us. The only thing that can make a trader succeed is KNOWLEDGE of how the market is layed out, how price moves within that layout, why and when. In other words the mastery of the concepts in chaos. Nothing else dolt - like it or not - only those with that knowledge will thrive (whether they have it intuitively or explicitly). Of course it is the mathematics of imprecise but systematic motion or chaos that underpins all that knowledge. Only God knows the limits - but faithful humans may partake of the meal of grace regularly and without hindrance if and only if they stoop to know.
Quoting Guest
Info Seeker, am curious if you actually read my post. It quite clearly says that sentiment produces the observable patterns that are to be seen in the price structure. The resulting patterns are the basis for the probability assessment.
Yes, Guest ... 160.145, I did read your post and what's more I thought about it, understood it and then responded. As I said in my reply, if this is working for you I can't be any happier, but for the reasons I talked about and a few others I didn't, I wanted to show you and those sincerely interested, that with all due respect I don't agree with the sentiment approach as I deem it a failing one. As to the patterns produced by sentiment ... Let me put it this way, If sentiment itself fails why should you believe in anything it produces? We have a saying in U.S. that states 'the proof is in the pudding.' Trading these patterns gives you random results. Sometimes they work, but sometimes they won't. They don't work because they are based on false assumptions, but they do work when the other important factors work at a time when these patterns occur. I can also tell you that the higher the TF the more accurate they become because they blend more with these factors, but I would ask you a hypothetical question: If you had or were managing 10 million dollars (as a generally referred to big figure) would you trade it based on a pattern? How many times did you see a H&S fail? A DT, DB, a doji, shooting star, pennant, belly button or what have you? They don't work enough to give you the confidence to pull the trigger on such a big figure. Now comes a realistic question: If you answered NO, as any sane person would, then why would use them on your hard earned money regardless of the amount? You'll be more gambling than anything.

These probability assessments you talk about should be based on solid facts, not manifestations of possible action based on behavior of past events. In physics, it is believed that if you went back in time and changed one little detail about an event that took place, that change could alter the future in any number of ways and to any extent.
If you can guarantee me that when a known pattern occurs on a chart with all its details exactly like all the previous times it occurred giving the exact same results I may consider these patterns more. But the only thing that is constant in the market is change, it is always in flux, which is why you keep hearing "depending on market condition" which is why these patterns may appear to be the same on the outside but in fact they are in most cases completely different.

I must clarify that some patterns spring from the harmonious nature of the universe and are by themselves instigators, or bell ringers, if you will. These are the ones I do study for when combined with specific elements can do wonders to one's account. The gist of what I am saying is when all things fit AS PREDICTED and you take a trade then watch out boy we're heading to party. It is just too sad that most traders look for these patterns and scour for them because they think it's the way to trade only to be disappointed most of the time. They see something that is really not there.

Let me go back to another important aspect. Common sense. If these patterns are so successful, everybody and their grandmother would be trading nothing but patterns and all would be millionaires. It is not that simple. Keep in mind, the simpler the pattern the less reliable it is especially in the lower TF's. The more complex the pattern, the harder you can see it, the more reliable it becomes in any TF. That is why trading requires training and practice to develop an eye for the market as well as a feel for it.

Good trading to you.
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.160.145
Those who trade price action, know that recognizable patterns repeat all the time. If 60 to 65% the results are positive that is sufficient edge to make money.

People will always trade their money and place their investments for emotional reasons. Human behavior does not change and the sentiment swings that drive the market positioning repeat over and over.

Most of the posters on this website think they are trading logically, but the reality is that subconscious emotions drive the decision process, and that is why they lose.

Believe what you want, I will continue to trade my way. These posts were for anyone looking for some way to trade that works. The rest is up to those people to do their own homework.
Well clearly the admin or mods as erstwhile squeeze or spreadbutter reincarnated or "resurrected" likes to call them have shot down the bugger - looks like they smelt a rat about him and therefore he has been banned. Goes to show some balance in running the site and I hope with that chap resting in peace we can have some peace as well - next stage is reveal the more nefarious machinations of the real squeeze - or spreadbutter so all can see that being two faced does not pay. Muahaahaahaaahaaaha - most evil laugh.
Quoting Loadedgun
which is different from economic analysis which is another ball game (and in which I am trained and fully certified).
Just curious, but where did you "train" in economics and what certifications do you hold?

For reference, I have taught MBA students at a top program and done doctoral work under guys who were protégés of Gene Fama, Merton Miller, and Ben Bernanke. Yet I don't presume to speak with half your fatuous presumption. Nor do I know any intelligent person who does. (That would include Fama and Bernanke).
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XX.112.165
I bypass the cleverness of those appointing and keeping him but I'd love an example of BB showing real cleverness like being proactive than reactive for a change. Thanx.
Wiki Gene Fama. "...His doctoral supervisors were Nobel prize winner Merton Miller and Harry Roberts, but Benoit Mandelbrot was also an important influence.[1]***...

His Ph.D. thesis, which concluded that stock price movements are unpredictable(!) and follow a random walk(!!!), was published in January, 1965 issue of the Journal of Business, entitled "The Behavior of Stock Market Prices". That work was subsequently rewritten into a less technical article, "Random Walks In Stock Market Prices",[2] which was published in the Financial Analysts Journal in 1965 and Institutional Investor in 1968."

Wiki Benoit Mandelbrot. ...discovering the Mandelbrot set in 1979 coined the term FRACTAL and... "said that things typically considered to be "rough", a "mess" or "chaotic", like clouds or shorelines, actually had a "degree of order".(a.k.a chaos is not random after all).

***In 1996 Fama was teaching The Distribution of the Daily Difference of the Logarithm of Stock Prices - Probability theory and stochastic processes having Mandelbrot as an advisor(all these after 15mins research on wikipedia and a brain aware of the terms) proving he's smart enough to understand how obsolete a Ph.D. thesis might become and adopt. But that's not the issue as high English expression was never the issue.

The issue here is that the only person here talking about chaos and fractal theories screaming about the non randomness of the market is LG who's being opposed by alleged professionals with years of experience saying that psyche numbers, fibo statics and fundamentals drive the market. And you have the nerve to challenge his schooling when we all know that titles can be bought(p.ex. Bush jr and G.Papandreou hold a Harvard degree ) but not the knowledge.

No wonder he generously throws RIP all around...
Make me a prophet and I'll make you rich. - Me
Quoting Guest
Believe what you want, I will continue to trade my way. These posts were for anyone looking for some way to trade that works. The rest is up to those people to do their own homework.
Yes, I couldn't agree more. Very happy you're getting your trading goals achieved implementing your way of trading and more power to you.

I enjoyed our little interaction and hope that others picked up something from it that can contribute to their own trading path.
There's a degree of very unhealthy contagion on this section. These riddles you speak in do they help you take money out of the market? You appear as flawed as the dubious character you go to strange lengths to promote, someone else who doesnt take a dime out of the market.

Quoting Timetraveler
Wiki Gene Fama. "...His doctoral supervisors were Nobel prize winner Merton Miller and Harry Roberts, but Benoit Mandelbrot was also an important influence.[1]***...

His Ph.D. thesis, which concluded that stock price movements are unpredictable(!) and follow a random walk(!!!), was published in January, 1965 issue of the Journal of Business, entitled "The Behavior of Stock Market Prices". That work was subsequently rewritten into a less technical article, "Random Walks In Stock Market Prices",[2] which was published in the Financial Analysts...
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Eh? You been knocking back Lagos cider again? Weirdo

Quoting Loadedgun
Well clearly the admin or mods as erstwhile squeeze or spreadbutter reincarnated or "resurrected" likes to call them have shot down the bugger - looks like they smelt a rat about him and therefore he has been banned. Goes to show some balance in running the site and I hope with that chap resting in peace we can have some peace as well - next stage is reveal the more nefarious machinations of the real squeeze - or spreadbutter so all can see that being two faced does not pay. Muahaahaahaaahaaaha - most evil laugh.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Get in there, nice one twee, the flock of dead seagulls can rant themselves to oblivion and I won't see it. Nice work
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
How come I can see you - and hey your license is not total after all - where is squeeze?
Quoting Loadedgun
How come I can see you - and hey your license is not total after all - where is squeeze?
Lol.. Squeeze got squeezed out. First Jon, then jon7, now squeeze, next is butter. Now whos suffering from split personalities.
No idea what you're on about in relation to squeeze, great trader, brilliant analyst, runs (used to run?) a sideline to his serious stuff, a cracking signal service originally aimed at HNW individuals. Works in the same building as us. Small world. Anyhow, I wont keep you, carry on playing in your sandbox junior, bless. Thanks for reminding me to put you on ignore.

Quoting BenMario
Lol.. Squeeze got squeezed out. First Jon, then jon7, now squeeze, next is butter. Now whos suffering from split personalities.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
No idea what you're on about in relation to squeeze, great trader, brilliant analyst, runs (used to run?) a cracking signal service originally aimed at HNW individuals. Works in the same building as us. Small world. Anyhow, I wont keep you, carry on playing in you sandbox junior, bless. Thanks for reminding me to put you on ignore.
Yea... no worries.. we all are. Hope you wont get margin call on your fxcm demo micro account. That would be pathetic.
Quoting BenMario
Yea... no worries.. we all are. Hope you wont get margin call on your fxcm demo micro account. That would be pathetic.
You mean he flunks in demo trading routinely? God save the Queen. He is English you know?
Quoting Spreadbetter
There's a degree of very unhealthy contagion on this section. These riddles you speak in do they help you take money out of the market? You appear as flawed as the dubious character you go to strange lengths to promote, someone else who doesnt take a dime out of the market.
I got friends tra la la - la la la...I got got friends (not sure you can sing the same song now you been found out for real even by FF). RIP squeeze.
Quoting Loadedgun
You mean he flunks in demo trading routinely? God save the Queen. He is English you know?
Yep. His recent fxcm micro demo starts with $1000.00, now at $104.00. Major losses on E/U.. So much for fund-a-mental analysis. lol
Fatuous presumption is an apt description. His economics A level was acquired in a former poly in Edinburgh. Why FF allow him to pollute this section is a mystery. His verbal diorrhea kills debate.

Quoting Casimir
Just curious, but where did you "train" in economics and what certifications do you hold?

For reference, I have taught MBA students at a top program and done doctoral work under guys who were protégés of Gene Fama, Merton Miller, and Ben Bernanke. Yet I don't presume to speak with half your fatuous presumption. Nor do I know any intelligent person who does. (That would include Fama and Bernanke).
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
I think this place is over done - hope some more exciting stuff comes elsewhere - really had fun here and nailed at least one virtual goons coffin - RIP squeeze.
we all know what a stuck up spready is....having another spready(squeeze) around was a little too much even for the ff admin
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