The End Game For The Euro Rally Is Here

The End Game For The Euro Rally Is Here

From seekingalpha.com

While Wednesday's Fed minutes did not really reveal anything new, they came after a slew of disappointing U.S. data over the past several weeks, and they reminded everyone that Fed Chairman Bernanke, the father of zero interest rate central banker policy, is disappointed in the economic recovery. The sharp slide in stocks and currencies this concern caused was enough to shift the Day to Day Pattern in the Euro to bearish, and we have accordingly shifted from looking to buy dips in the Euro to looking to sell rallies. The Euro now joins AUDUSD on the list of currency pairs where the majority of tradable patterns are ... (full story)

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#1
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Feb 23, 2013 5:16pm Feb 23, 2013 5:16pm

Trader#ED20
| Status: Unregistered Trader

Sorry its just expectation may be and may be not

#2
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Feb 23, 2013 5:53pm Feb 23, 2013 5:53pm

HouseTaker
| Commercial User | Joined Jan 2006 | 11 Comments

i beg to differ......euro rally has much further to go. i think we'll see new all-time highs in eurusd.

#3
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Feb 23, 2013 6:07pm Feb 23, 2013 6:07pm

Trader#AEE7
| Status: Unregistered Trader

Quoting HouseTaker

Disliked

i beg to differ......euro rally has much further to go. i think we'll see new all-time highs in eurusd.

Ignored

But not just yet. First 1.3, if it breaks down, then 1.24xxx and then back up, possibly to 1.4 or higher.

#4
Quote
Feb 23, 2013 6:09pm Feb 23, 2013 6:09pm

enochben
Joined Dec 2007 | Status: a.k.a. the speculator | 109 Comments

who cares - just ride the wave in whatever direction it takes you!

#5
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Feb 23, 2013 6:37pm Feb 23, 2013 6:37pm

Goldflake
Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 56 Comments

Yes. It has potential to go down from here and the probability is more.

When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...

#6
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Feb 23, 2013 7:02pm Feb 23, 2013 7:02pm

Maso
| Joined Feb 2013 | Status: Trader | 468 Comments

I think we will see a bottom point and a mountain both in March.

#7
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Feb 23, 2013 8:25pm Feb 23, 2013 8:25pm

Trader#5F53
| Status: Unregistered Trader

there is some unfinished business in the 1.25-1.26 area, so yes for now the euro rally may be done but my opinion is that we haven't seen the top of euro in the medium term... COT reports are on the positive side for euro so any move down should be considered retracement as long as COT is positive. but let's see what happens @ 1.26 and then we'll take it from there.

#8
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 2:43am Feb 24, 2013 2:43am

michaelpelly
Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1992 Comments

Quoting Maso

Disliked

I think we will see a bottom point and a mountain both in March.

Ignored

That will be very fortunate:-)! I will keep my "long" heavy axe sharpened, but I really doubt it will break bellow 1.26xx.

#9
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Feb 24, 2013 5:58am Feb 24, 2013 5:58am

appyte
| Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Trader | 1 Comment

do not easily believe news..

#10
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Feb 24, 2013 9:36am Feb 24, 2013 9:36am

Trout
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2007 | 688 Comments

Hi Enochben -- as a trader I agree 100% with your logic, thanks!

#11
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Feb 24, 2013 9:36am Feb 24, 2013 9:36am

Trout
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2007 | 688 Comments

Quoting Guest

Disliked

Sorry its just expectation may be and may be not

Ignored

You are correct my friend

#12
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 9:37am Feb 24, 2013 9:37am

Trout
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2007 | 688 Comments

Quoting HouseTaker

Disliked

i beg to differ......euro rally has much further to go. i think we'll see new all-time highs in eurusd.

Ignored

I would welcome that, our method however has us looking to sell rallies.

#13
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Feb 24, 2013 9:38am Feb 24, 2013 9:38am

Trout
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2007 | 688 Comments

Hi Goldflake, I agree my cigarette holding friend

#14
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 9:40am Feb 24, 2013 9:40am

Trout
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2007 | 688 Comments

Quoting Maso

Disliked

I think we will see a bottom point and a mountain both in March.

Ignored

Hi Maso, That would be something. Until the market broke down last Wed/Thu I would have agreed w/ you.

#15
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 9:41am Feb 24, 2013 9:41am

Trout
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2007 | 688 Comments

Quoting Guest

Disliked

there is some unfinished business in the 1.25-1.26 area, so yes for now the euro rally may be done but my opinion is that we haven't seen the top of euro in the medium term... COT reports are on the positive side for euro so any move down should be considered retracement as long as COT is positive. but let's see what happens @ 1.26 and then we'll take it from there.

Ignored

That would be great if we see 126 soon, we will all see...

#16
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 10:56am Feb 24, 2013 10:56am

Trader#A8D6
| Status: Unregistered Trader

The sensational headline to grab attention is just a market game for your book. Nothing bad there. The bold assertion that Euro rally is ended with points raised are elementary . I have not seen any signs from ECB or forecasts of your forecast. Euro is in a long term recovery mode as seen from relative performance with AUD, CAD, YEN and so on. The recent pullback is healthy for the next upside.

#17
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 12:27pm Feb 24, 2013 12:27pm

Trader#2235
| Status: Unregistered Trader

the pair broke the trend line and recorded almost 300 pips fall from the previous high of 1.3433. it is even threatening to brake the 1.3150 support. i am of the opinion that the sell rally is about taking off. lets watch the development first for a clearer picture before we flow in the sale rally.

#18
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 3:00pm Feb 24, 2013 3:00pm

Trader#DE36
| Status: Unregistered Trader

WOW i made profit , yes now the pair 1.3226 - 1.32330 , in fact i see FOMC statement
will help EURO Plus Repayment Done Plus Election

#19
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 4:20pm Feb 24, 2013 4:20pm

Trout
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2007 | 688 Comments

Quoting Guest

Disliked

The sensational headline to grab attention is just a market game for your book. Nothing bad there. The bold assertion that Euro rally is ended with points raised are elementary . I have not seen any signs from ECB or forecasts of your forecast. Euro is in a long term recovery mode as seen from relative performance with AUD, CAD, YEN and so on. The recent pullback is healthy for the next upside.

Ignored

Hello,
A wrongly timed sensational headline can do far more damage to analysis than it is worth. Not only that but the attachment that comes from writing a slanted story can throw a trader off balance leaving him focused on what he thinks and not what is. The euro's day to day pattern has shifted down which is a fact based occurence.

I see Euro strength against other pairs as being engineered by central bankers for good reason. Over the course of this year however it will be up to the market to determine which pair will strengthen and which won't.

Thank you for contributing!

#20
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 4:28pm Feb 24, 2013 4:28pm

Trout
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2007 | 688 Comments

Quoting Guest

Disliked

WOW i made profit , yes now the pair 1.3226 - 1.32330 , in fact i see FOMC statement
will help EURO Plus Repayment Done Plus Election

Ignored

Cool! I'm also happy to see Aussie lower. The bottom of my sell zone for Euro is currently 132.90 or so -- looking to sell a rally. Near-term downside target for AUDUSD is 1.01

#21
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 5:51pm Feb 24, 2013 5:51pm

Trader#E04B
| Status: Unregistered Trader

Quoting Trout

Disliked

Hello,
A wrongly timed sensational headline can do far more damage to analysis than it is worth. Not only that but the attachment that comes from writing a slanted story can throw a trader off balance leaving him focused on what he thinks and not what is. The euro's day to day pattern has shifted down which is a fact based occurence.

I see Euro strength against other pairs as being engineered by central bankers for good reason. Over the course of this year however it will be up to the market to determine which pair will strengthen and which...

Ignored

I think the market already decided. Loadedgun

Sorry airborne over Nigeria coming in from Mali to land in 30 or so minutes. Cheers

#22
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 6:17pm Feb 24, 2013 6:17pm

Trout
| Commercial User | Joined Oct 2007 | 688 Comments

Safe Landings Loadedgun, Yes the rally in euro on the opening was short lived. Cheers

#23
Quote
Feb 24, 2013 6:59pm Feb 24, 2013 6:59pm

Exodus
Joined May 2012 | Status: CoC'd again ! | 4779 Comments

Quoting Guest

Disliked

WOW i made profit , yes now the pair 1.3226 - 1.32330 , in fact i see FOMC statement
will help EURO Plus Repayment Done Plus Election

Ignored

Which part of the FOMC statement will help the Euro? IIRC they said they were thinking about how to unwind the QE, and that pounded everything except the dollar.

Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo

#24
Quote
Feb 25, 2013 6:13am Feb 25, 2013 6:13am

ToeCutter
| Joined Feb 2009 | Status: From a land, far, far away... | 16 Comments

Quoting enochben

Disliked

who cares - just ride the wave in whatever direction it takes you!

Ignored

Thank God somebody said it.

#25
Quote
Feb 25, 2013 5:41pm Feb 25, 2013 5:41pm

Loadedgun
| Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2010 | 3678 Comments

Quoting ToeCutter

Disliked

Thank God somebody said it.

Ignored

That was a joke right? Else what are we all doing here not sitting up there with Soros?

Story Stats

Posted: Feb 23, 2013 4:31pm
Submitted by:
Trout

Category: Fundamental Analysis

Comments: 25 / Views: 5,491