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  • EUR/USD Breaks Consolidation High; Can it Clear 1.35?

    From fxtimes.com

    Consolidation: The EUR/USD failed to extend after breaking above a small flag pattern during the 1/28 US session. The consolidation high held, and price came back to crack its consolidation low during the 1/29 European session. During the 1/29 US session it surged from the new low, to a new high, breaking above the consolidation high. Momentum: Note that the 1H RSI reading held above 40, reflecting maintenance of bullish momentum. With it going above 60, it is a sign of bullish momentum revival. Target: 1.35 will be a key psychological handle to break for further bullish outlook. If this is the case, taking the width ... (full story)

Of course it can. Today. If not today tomorrow at latest.
Sure has the momentum to do it. Let's see if it will pop after. - Fan
not, don't brake 1.35
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Quoting Spik
Of course it can. Today. If not today tomorrow at latest.
I've noticed a change in tone the past couple of days on FF...it use to be that the e/u was overbought and needed to correct. Now most are saying it will go higher and can't be stopped. That's my que to start shorting!
yes its going through 1.35. Believing that it won't is just foolish
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:45am Jan 29, 2013 10:35am | Edited at 10:45am
This reads just like one of those pearls from 'fxtechstrategy', who famously posted that UsdChf would close above some level by Thursday when it was already above it by Wednesday pm....

...only 19 pips to go!

edit: there is some strong resistance at 3480/90
P.S. I like fxtiimes
My prophecy is is about to fulfill my calculations. Euro will reach 1.35 and will stay going side ways indefinitely. Reach more up than coming down.

The europeans have learned their lesson. Now they are on their own with no strings attached. Wait and you'll see.
I would say - not today - depends on FOMC tomorrow.
A battle can be seen in the 5 min chart right under 1.35. The test is on. -Fan
The Feds are idiots who care nothing about it's people. USD to $.50 soon and all of this against the biggest pig or second biggest pig the Euro. Neither currency is worth $.25. Have fun and never ever trade fundamentals
I am currently developing the "irrationality-inefficient market principle." I understand that there may be momentum, but one has to heed economics at some point. Great for short-term trades also pad the P/L, but shit like this makes my stomach turn. Some may weigh consumer confidence differently, but it just hit it's low since 2011 and markets didn't even budge. German IPI was down today as well as Spanish retail sales. Eh, no biggy. Spanish unemployment still above 25%; French unemployment highest in two years and Italian unemployment highest since may. GDP outlook is not all that great considering the EZ is comprised on 17 nations. It gives a picture of a weak economy with a stronger currency. Oh, well. Might as well go long until the world collapses.
I think is too quickly forgotten that the next days will bring valuable information so maybe it will reach 1.35 but to stay there that's another story.
1.35 not a big deal
Quoting fxtimes
A battle can be seen in the 5 min chart right under 1.35. The test is on. -Fan
Another TF - 15 min - shows 4 rejections of 1,349X level. Every time kicked down to 1,3482.

Huge fight there.
Quoting Pip Anon
... It gives a picture of a weak economy with a stronger currency. Oh, well....
There are heroes like Michel Sapin who today declared France to be bankrupt (allegedly). The smart money believed him to be short the Euro so they immediately took the other side of the trade
History's path has left a trail of information, and most of our decision and opinions should evolved from those history segments. The euro got as high as 1.65 in 2007, then, the world armageddon in 2008. To reminiscent on some statistics...try going back on the monthly "temporarity"and see what hapened between 1999 on through 2008...and make an opinion of the state of the market in that then. Then, you will see why a lot of investors are going their way.
Well if u look at the fact that today's rally was more like a sprint and the referee wasn't agree with the start the players had...and also that we have 2 important datas coming tomorrow and friday...I don't think we will see it above 1.35 on a short term. But the beauty of this "game" is: U NEVER KNOW !!!
Quoting Exodus
There are heroes like Michel Sapin who today declared France to be bankrupt (allegedly). The smart money believed him to be short the Euro so they immediately took the other side of the trade
Lol I read that. I don't know that to be true, but France is not really doing so hot. Germany really is the only one supporting the EZ, and they are kind of stagnant. Spain and Italy are primary reasons we seen EUR @ 1.22; funny thing is they still look like shit.
Quoting Pip Anon
I am currently developing the "irrationality-inefficient market principle." I understand that there may be momentum, but one has to heed economics at some point. Great for short-term trades also pad the P/L, but shit like this makes my stomach turn. Some may weigh consumer confidence differently, but it just hit it's low since 2011 and markets didn't even budge. German IPI was down today as well as Spanish retail sales. Eh, no biggy. Spanish unemployment still above 25%; French unemployment highest in two years and Italian unemployment highest...
LOL
I think now that it has been an hour we will have to wait untill tommorow perhaps for it to break 1.35 but then who knows nothings certains that certain
Pip Anon, its disconcerting when it seems like markets are behaving without much fundamentals supporting them, and as a guy that loves macro data certain moves can be headscratching..

What I would suggest though is to think about the money flows. Basically, last year we had a huge expectation by many that the euro could break up. This was a big deal and we had a flight of capital from Europe, european bonds, and european equities., etc.. Now, since Draghi's "I promise to do what it takes" comments, and with periphery bond yields calming I read a lot about flows into Europe - people buying Spanish and Italian debt, we can see that equities in Europe are gaining as well.

Here's an article from the FT today: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f4d5d...#axzz2JN4dJcF6

Then we have to consider that we are still generally in a risk-on/risk-off world and the USD is going to be weak as long as risk continues to rally (I would say better than expected earnings, the general pick-up in housing in the US, and other data points like decent employment growth matter more than consumer confidence... not to mention all the central bank stimulus) will keep risk assets like the EUR moving higher vs the USD. The fact that the BOJ and Fed are doing extra QE while ECB stands pat at the moment also helps the Euro's cause..

Anyway, my longwinded 2 cents that dont have anything to really do with today's action. heh. Good trading everyone.
Quoting Pip Anon
Lol I read that. I don't know that to be true, but France is not really doing so hot. Germany really is the only one supporting the EZ, and they are kind of stagnant. Spain and Italy are primary reasons we seen EUR @ 1.22; funny thing is they still look like shit.
It's not funny at all because EZ is not about economics, the trade balance, the unemployment or all this kid things. The euro is all about wizzard Draghi that HE will do anything that it needs to save the euro.
In US on the $ bill says: IN GOD WE TRUST
In Europe on € bill says: IN DRAGHI WE TRUST )
Quoting n1K
Pip Anon, its disconcerting when it seems like markets are behaving without much fundamentals supporting them, and as a guy that loves macro data certain moves can be headscratching..

What I would suggest though is to think about the money flows. Basically, last year we had a huge expectation by many that the euro could break up. This was a big deal and we had a flight of capital from Europe, european bonds, and european equities., etc.. Now, since Draghi's "I promise to do what it takes" comments, and with periphery bond yields calming I read...
That's awesome, but has he done anything but be a politician? It's nothing more than what is going on in the U.S., raw EZ data is still not all that stellar, and people are jumping on the wagon. Nobody seems to learn the lessons of the 1920's. '87, 1999-2000s, and 2007. When markets and assets refuse to halter or heed real economics there are bubbles. Even retail t"investors" are getting in, and we know where that leads. What happens when the FED withdrawals and the economic condition is not much better, there will be a selloff and Europe won't fair that well. Just hope you make your money before than, I guess.

Traders fall in love with the sweet lullabies of Draghi and Bernanke's siren song, but pretty soon the ship is gonna hit the fecking cliff. These are money recoveries, not economic recoveries. Enjoy it as it lasts.
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but do we need to watch out for the RSI 40 and 60? Even the bollinger shows the bulls. My new stops are set @ 1.3520 which i think will touch before the end of today's trading session unless any catalyst for the downtrend, otherwise. Tomorrow euro might breakback at 1.34 lows as there is a greek and italian bond auction and not to mention that bullish trend might come back later tomorrow as there is non-farm and advance GDP will be released which is suspected to be lower than forecast (if so).
But lets hope we secure OUR money whatever the results turn out to be.
All the contrary, it has a lot to see with unemployment, new purchases of durable goods, housing, confidence in the market (mostly on the future of their european market) - new orders, the tourism industry, and their main concern is to maintain a balance valued currency. If you read the news about what is going on europe, you will see how worry they are in not plummeting back to a deflated value of their currency.
Look at a monthly chart and never in the history of the Euro has there been 6 green monthly candles in a row.The Euro is just as big a pig as the USD and is worth no more than par at best. I have studied this a lot and there is no fundamental reason for the Euro to be at best 1.15
Quoting Mr D.
Look at a monthly chart and never in the history of the Euro has there been 6 green monthly candles in a row.The Euro is just as big a pig as the USD and is worth no more than par at best. I have studied this a lot and there is no fundamental reason for the Euro to be at best 1.15
Now fundamentals don't matter; free money matters.
eur/usd will have high impact either buy or sell, 30th will be horrible, so trader becarefull
Pop goes the Euro bubble soon. China and Japan are about to stop the Eur Buying
Yes But limited..........Sell EUR 1.3520-30 Area SL 1.3560 TP 1.3420-1.3380
Rule #1 don't fight the Fed or ECB

Rule #2 follow rule #1

If you ignore this during our free money markets your account will go bye bye

Down moves are currently traps, when enough traders get short the money machine goes gottcha
Quoting Rashid langa
Yes But limited..........Sell EUR 1.3520-30 Area SL 1.3560 TP 1.3420-1.3380
same to you
I hope all the Banks and hedge funds keep buying 1 bottle of Euro at the price of a whole case. Soon to burst the bubble bye bye euro pig. No fundamental or technical reason just pure greed
Quoting Mr D.
Look at a monthly chart and never in the history of the Euro has there been 6 green monthly candles in a row.
I thought i was the only one looking at that lol, although that happened before, 10(!) green candles in a row back at 2002/2003

I doubt it can go much higher for numerous reasons. It has to pay a visit back to the 30's area before it can go any higher. Then again, its the market were talking about, you can never know 100% what she'll do and why shes doing it... Bitch, eh? lol
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Quoting Mr D.
Look at a monthly chart and never in the history of the Euro has there been 6 green monthly candles in a row.The Euro is just as big a pig as the USD and is worth no more than par at best. I have studied this a lot and there is no fundamental reason for the Euro to be at best 1.15
Traders like you is the only reason it now aims at least 1.42.
Because you shorted it all the way up here with tight stops and you still refuse to behave.

There's only one fundamental. It stopped dropping when no one wanted to buy it and it will stop rising when no one will want to sell it

Until then keep counting how many consecutive bars of arrogance is the record because the market and the universe have no memory. Wiki gambler's fallacy on that last one.
Quoting cjbooth
Rule #1 don't fight the Fed or ECB

Rule #2 follow rule #1

If you ignore this during our free money markets your account will go bye bye

Down moves are currently traps, when enough traders get short the money machine goes gottcha
You must watch too much CNBC. What is worrisome is not fighting the central banks. I'll hold my nose and trade what is given because it is given. However, what is worrisome is people thinking the economy is roaring back and disregarding mediocre or poor data simply because the Fed is shelling out paper. There are two outcomes: 1) Fed pulls out with a mediocre economy and markets become way too overpriced; 2) The spending continues, and a year, two years and faced with high inflation.

There is a penalty for dumping trillions, upon trillions, upon trillions into the system. Just think, with 6 or 7 trillion spent between Obama and the Fed, this is the best they can do? I can picture Draghi and Bernanke holding hands skipping through a field of tulips.
I hope all the Banks and hedge funds keep buying 1 bottle of Euro at the price of a whole case. Soon to burst the bubble bye bye euro pig. You are right on the green candles but most were small back then and the Euro zone was not in financial turmoil like now
There is a small, imperfect inverted head/shoulders on the weekly - maybe push up to next supply zone around 1.41. Feels like technicals are being forced rather than just playing out.
Looking at the Trades section of FF there seem to be more people having shorts than longs.
I never ever buy the Euro. I just wait for the charts so I can sell and it's been very good to me for many years. Patience is the key
Quoting Pip Anon
There is a small, imperfect inverted head/shoulders on the weekly - maybe push up to next supply zone around 1.41. Feels like technicals are being forced rather than just playing out.
that one payed out already, i wouldnt enter long now because of that, just my 2cnts.
Cheers
Quoting Gaaikema
Looking at the Trades section of FF there seem to be more people having shorts than longs.
mmmm will you buy Euro? Not for me at the moment, my max was .3484 for this week, that was my today's long TP anyway.

SP500 at record crazy unsustainable index figure.

When it falls, parasite have loads of support line for me to scalp longs.

.3370 was when SP500 hit 1500.0 and a 6 point = 100pips up is a bit way over the top but heyho any shit can happen

Next circus please FOMC
Quoting jonahky7
mmmm will you buy Euro? Not for me at the moment, my max was .3484 for this week, that was my today's long TP anyway.
Normally it isn't bad to do the opposite but I'm out as well. There seems to be too much resistance to go up any further.
  • Post #44
  • Quote
  • Edited at 2:35pm Jan 29, 2013 2:22pm | Edited at 2:35pm
Quoting Gaaikema
Normally it isn't bad to do the opposite but I'm out as well. There seems to be too much resistance to go up any further.
Just my 2cts, USD/JPY has been stalling too. Hopefully the Japs have ran out of ink to print more lol.

Have not seen algo tripping for sometime, wonder when the next trap is.......................

Asia session should give some indication of what's left of Bank of Joints power Until tomorrow cheerio
the Euro must rise because the U.S must devalue their currency. America is bankrupt and cannot pay its debt any other way. The Euro rise is fundamentally sound
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
the Euro must rise because the U.S must devalue their currency. America is bankrupt and cannot pay its debt any other way. The Euro rise is fundamentally sound
Where's the punch line? (although I don't disagree with your first statement).
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
the Euro must rise because the U.S must devalue their currency. America is bankrupt and cannot pay its debt any other way. The Euro rise is fundamentally sound
are u the US economist or the economy itself? stop saying thing that don't have guarantee and follow what the trade shows up
There is some serious bo||ocks written here today.
Who thinks a Euro is worth anything?
Who thinks a US dollar is worth anything?
(Mr.Ben has already declared the US$ worthless)

People, it is a market!!
The worth of anything is what you can persuade people to pay - and that is all.
Today there are plenty of people willing to swap dollars and euros at nearly 1.35.
Last week it was around 1.33.
Next week it will be either more, or less.
If 'people' want to buy german autos, spanish bonds or Italian wine, then the Euro will go up. When they have a hangover from the wine the Euro will come down.

The price of anything is driven either by what some soul needs to sell it for, or what some other soul is willing to pay.
Quoting Exodus
There is some serious bo||ocks written here today.
Who thinks a Euro is worth anything?
Who thinks a US dollar is worth anything?
(Mr.Ben has already declared the US$ worthless)

People, it is a market!!
The worth of anything is what you can persuade people to pay - and that is all.
Today there are plenty of people willing to swap dollars and euros at nearly 1.35.
Last week it was around 1.33.
Next week it will be either more, or less.
If 'people' want to buy german autos, spanish bonds or Italian wine, then the Euro will go up. When...
this is great!!!
Just today? ;-)

Quoting Exodus
There is some serious bo||ocks written here today.





Who thinks a Euro is worth anything?
Who thinks a US dollar is worth anything?
(Mr.Ben has already declared the US$ worthless)

People, it is a market!!
The worth of anything is what you can persuade people to pay - and that is all.
Today there are plenty of people willing to swap dollars and euros at nearly 1.35.
Last week it was around 1.33.
Next week it will be either more, or less.
If 'people' want to buy german autos, spanish bonds or Italian wine, then the Euro will...
Quoting Spreadbetter
Just today? ;-)
Quoting Exodus
There is some serious bo||ocks written here today.
Who thinks a Euro is worth anything?
Who thinks a US dollar is worth anything?
(Mr.Ben has already declared the US$ worthless)
People, it is a market!!
The worth of anything is what you can persuade people to pay - and that is all.
Today there are plenty of people willing to swap dollars and euros at nearly 1.35.
Last week it was around 1.33.
.
You're right. It is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. The question is WHY is people willing to pay that much, or a premium, for it?
trade what u see not what u hear...
Quoting gbengoyor
trade what u see not what u hear...
Rather profound!
WOW! What a battlefield there!
Quoting Exodus
There is some serious bo||ocks written here today.
Who thinks a Euro is worth anything?
Who thinks a US dollar is worth anything?
(Mr.Ben has already declared the US$ worthless)

People, it is a market!!
The worth of anything is what you can persuade people to pay - and that is all.
Today there are plenty of people willing to swap dollars and euros at nearly 1.35.
Last week it was around 1.33.
Next week it will be either more, or less.
If 'people' want to buy german autos, spanish bonds or Italian wine, then the Euro will go up. When...
As long those who bollocks don't need to get a yellow submarine to see green seaweeds they believed was pips........have a good evening
  • Post #57
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:45am Jan 30, 2013 12:55am | Edited at 1:45am
This is great!

Amazing, the force of opinion some Euro bulls display. Zealous anger and hammer of the gods! Most likely they get their 1.35 and then what? Self-righteous conviction that 1.41 is the next Nirvana?

Some entertaining comments and great insights above. I have been similarly ired by the way market participants pile into trends regardless of whether data is +ve or not. n1k's "money flow" explanation makes a lot of sense... perceived risk and the madness of crowds, I say.

The recent uptick in VIX is going to exhilirate the coming weeks' market action - this past year's foul politik and Frankenstein stimulus has resulted in a zombie bull-run herding into equities at the market top (where else?). If I wasn't so fundamentally agrieved by the fraud and mismanagement that has brought all this about, I'd feel shame at the tragedy of ordinary hardworking people's lives being screwed by glib powerful suited fools.
And for those who like to cherrypick price levels as a matter of pride, remember:

"Predictions are dangerous, especially if they are about the future"

I forgot to mention, you can still swap Euros for beer and bread if you go to the right places
Quoting Exodus
I forgot to mention, you can still swap Euros for beer and bread if you go to the right places
if you are lucky some haggis if you are in scotland
In today's market you can also swap oil for goods and services. Barter is becoming the game in town, and that alone will make a big difference n the currency market.
Hey Fan i think EU maybe has a head an shoulders. on the 1hr
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  • Posted: Jan 29, 2013 10:16am
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     fxtimes
    Category: Technical Analysis
    Comments: 62  /  Views: 9,459