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  • The Rate Of Unemployment May Fall Below 6% In A Year

    From seekingalpha.com

    A month ago, we discussed the rate of unemployment in the US and published our forecast for 2013. Two months ago, we predicted an extended unemployment fall period down to the level of 6.2% in the third quarter of 2013. This prediction was made after we accurately forecasted (on March 1, 2012) the rate of unemployment in the US to fall to 7.8% by the end of 2012. For the first time in 2012, the BLS announced 7.8% in September and the rate for November is 7.7%. One may expect a lower figure in December 2012. Here we update our model and estimate that the rate of unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2013 may fall ... (full story)

seekingalpha need to seek out new contributors as some of their recent articles defy belief. The only way the USA will see 6% unemployment is if the dystopian vision portrayed if Soylent Green becomes the reality.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
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if we fall off of the fiscal cliff then the rate of people that are on unemployment will drop to 6% easily because their benefits run out
Quoting Spreadbetter
seekingalpha need to seek out new contributors as some of their recent articles defy belief. The only way the USA will see 6% unemployment is if the dystopian vision portrayed if Soylent Green becomes the reality.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green
American companies adapt to changing business environments. It happen when it became cheaper to produce things over seas and ship them to the US.

Unemployment might fall to 6% in 2013 but that will not be a result of a growing economy but rather a reflex to the new health care laws coming into play.
It will be cheaper for the company to cut full time employees and replace them with part time employees. Resulting in "more people working" but the economy will not be growing at a healthy pace since the take home pay will at best remain flat.
Not making a moral judgement call on US companies, just stating they will find a way to keep profits up while cutting costs...which is what they are suppose to do for the shareholders.
Quoting Spreadbetter
seekingalpha need to seek out new contributors as some of their recent articles defy belief. The only way the USA will see 6% unemployment is if the dystopian vision portrayed if Soylent Green becomes the reality.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green
I have seen estimates that a pick up in the US housing market would knock 2-3% off of unemployment. This would put unemployment well under 6%.

Making the case that housing will pick up in the US is pretty easy. Owning is significantly cheaper than renting, we have positive population growth and there is significant pent up demand combined with historically low interest rates.

What is more, it is pretty obvious to anybody dealing with real estate that the housing market has clearly turned a corner. Properties priced right move very quickly and the real estate agents that have survived the drought of the last 4 years (less than half) are quite busy.
a new low from seeking alpha....any real fin journalist will delve deeper into the U-6. They will look the components and their skew on the number. They will see that the labor force is collapsing.......
+1, the participation in the labour force rate is now at historic lows, the number declined by 0.2% to 63.6% as the number of people out of the labour force increased by over 540K to 88,883,000 whilst close on 50 million receive food stamps.

And the 55-69 year olds are getting jobs at the expense of the 25-54 group. Grandpa is manning the deep fat fryer in Burger King to make up the pennies lost in his shitty pension, the majority of pensioners are retiring with less than $10K.

The USSA is fubar it'll be fascinating to watch how it (and it's populist arrogance) copes with third world wages and the devastating affect it will have on consumerism, which is 70% of their economy. Sure they'll revert to pushing ninja mortgage loans again, to get folk to buy prefabs and wooden houses, but the cycle down will continue.

Quoting mfoste1
a new low from seeking alpha....any real fin journalist will delve deeper into the U-6. They will look the components and their skew on the number. They will see that the labor force is collapsing.......
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
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Comments above partly misses the point, the headline BLS number could fall below 6% as a result of how it is calculated. That is what the article refers to, the fact that it is a completly useless number is another story. The economic downturn will continue as too much debt can never be resolved with more debt. The fact that some investors buy up highly discounted property is a far cry from a healthy housemarket. In the end it is very easy, until households have reduced their debt and gets an increased (real) salary there will be no recovery.
Somebody must be dreaming ... elections are over ... so I'd go up to 9-10% by the end of 13.
It's feasible that Big Brother will utter Newspeak to prove that the headline rate of unemployment is falling, not difficult to pull off when the methodology is deeply corrupted.

Quoting krisware
Somebody must be dreaming ... elections are over ... so I'd go up to 9-10% by the end of 13.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Only if you believe the BS numbers the gov puts out............
The economy will peak up tremendously surpass everyone expectation is coming from energy oil and gas industry and innovation substitutional related. The second industry in line is healthcare invention. The third industry will take up again are manufactoring...Thus, the 6% is modest and very possible only 5%. Globalization did not work, so now, they are focus to return home to their root. Big guys already begin to demand colleges and universities to provide them more expertise to fill their demand lists. Watch, US will take up again like no one ever imaginate it.
Im curious guys. You say the US economy is sh!t and that things are only going to get worse. Putting the present aside for now, how can you speak of the future with such certainty?
Quoting tradestar1
Only if you believe the BS numbers the gov puts out............
You don't have to believe anything, just accept it and make money....

You have a choice:

Be right - or be happy.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting AaronWard
Im curious guys. You say the US economy is sh!t and that things are only going to get worse. Putting the present aside for now, how can you speak of the future with such certainty?
Those people are letting their personal bias interfer with their trading hence their crappy perspectives.

The US economy sucks if you're stupid and have no job skills. For US citizens who barely graduated high school and have no marketable skills and have been unemployed then it sucks.

However for those of use who think forward and are flexible the past few years have been pretty good.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting AaronWard
Im curious guys. You say the US economy is sh!t and that things are only going to get worse. Putting the present aside for now, how can you speak of the future with such certainty?
easy.....history repeats itself, the same policy decisions that created this mess are being continued ten-fold. Use your head......
Quoting fxsport
Those people are letting their personal bias interfer with their trading hence their crappy perspectives.

The US economy sucks if you're stupid and have no job skills. For US citizens who barely graduated high school and have no marketable skills and have been unemployed then it sucks.

However for those of use who think forward and are flexible the past few years have been pretty good.
Incorrect....look at student debt default rates, its very obvious grads cant get jobs. These are the people who have education and think forward who you speak of.
Quoting mfoste1
Incorrect....look at student debt default rates, its very obvious grads cant get jobs. These are the people who have education and think forward who you speak of.
No it is YOU who are incorrect. When one looks at the student debt/default rates it's obvious that there are too many for profit colleges in the US.

Students who graduate with degrees in engineering, biochemistry, IT, any science field - are doing well.

The morons who amass 50K+ in student loans who major in art, womans studies, basket weaving, culinary schools, etc., THOSE are the people who can't get jobs because frankly those are USELESS skills in the real business world.

Many of the baby boomers are retiring early opening up more and more job opportunities.

New industries in energy field, i.e., fracking, CNP, LNG, solar, will be the nicer jobs in the future. There are also many healthcare openings that can't be filled because there are too many slackers in the US.
...because you never know - until you do!
I don't think the US economy is terrible but I also don't Belief we will see a strong recovery in 2013. I feel the economy will grow similar to 2012. I also feel lethargic growth will be the norm for a long time. Putting both sides of politicians aside for my point of view this is how I see things.
First business do not like non clear political direction.
Reps n Dems will continue to put their party views ahead of good for America views. I see continuing bickering in Washington the entire year.
Second, the debit is monstrous and will be a drag on the Feds ability to manage the economy.
Third, entitlements needed to be dealt with 20 years ago. This alone is a subject politicians just don't want to deal with in a meaningful way. We can not pay our obligations but they are unwilling to make real changes.
Third, I feel we will see several major cities in the US struggle with the possibility of bankruptcy. This will not lure business to expand in these areas, which will need the increase tax base order to avoid bankruptcy
Because of those in Washington unwilling to deal with really difficult choices, they will continue to send mixed signals to companies. Until companies can make firm capital up grade plans they will hold off. To be clear I am not saying no growth but lethargic growth.
Some bright spots I do see are the North Dakota and Texas economies, with the caution creeping into the Texas economy due to some prairie chicken habitat regulations that "might" come into play via the USFW as of yet making a determination.
Both are states are energy based economies.
What the hell are you talking about? Debt default rates are skyrocketing because grads CANNOT find good paying jobs. Yea sure, sci/math are doing fine, but what about the OTHER fields? Surely you can understand that Science/Math don't comprise ALL college grads, right? So then why were you trying to generalize these groups with saying that college grads are doing fine? Get your shit straight......

Baby boomers are NOT leaving the labor force. Inflation, increased taxes, and loss of benefits are causing them to stay and work longer. So young people are now competing with the baby boomers instead of taking their jobs as if they were to retire.

So if you aren't in the healthcare field, where there are "many openings" , then you are a slacker? It sounds like you are not young, so you really can't observe first hand what is really going on. That is referred to as ignorance.
I would agree that letting personal bias is not a good idea when trying to trade...no way my personal views can change things, so I trade what I know and "check my personal views at the door"
'Face-palm' comment on the thread.

Quoting fxsport
Those people are letting their personal bias interfer with their trading hence their crappy perspectives.

The US economy sucks if you're stupid and have no job skills. For US citizens who barely graduated high school and have no marketable skills and have been unemployed then it sucks.

However for those of use who think forward and are flexible the past few years have been pretty good.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting mfoste1
What the hell are you talking about? Debt default rates are skyrocketing because grads CANNOT find good paying jobs. Yea sure, sci/math are doing fine, but what about the OTHER fields? Surely you can understand that Science/Math don't comprise ALL college grads, right? So then why were you trying to generalize these groups with saying that college grads are doing fine? Get your shit straight......

Baby boomers are NOT leaving the labor force. Inflation, increased taxes, and loss of benefits are causing them to stay and work longer. So young people...
You grossly oversimplify the student debt issue.

1. Too many students are taking loans to not only pay for tuition but for their lavish lifestyles
2. Too many students opt for new 'toys' when graduating and deferring their loans

The US labor market is doing just fine for many people with the right skills.

Irregardless of mine or your thoughts about the US labor pool/employment; the USD will continue to fall.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting mfoste1
easy.....history repeats itself, the same policy decisions that created this mess are being continued ten-fold. Use your head......
This.

History repeats itself.

Everything in the universe is in an endless cycle, end of story.

We can be "certain" of where this country is headed because it might as well be a formation of DOMINOES being knocked down.
Quoting fxsport
Those people are letting their personal bias interfer with their trading hence their crappy perspectives.

The US economy sucks if you're stupid and have no job skills. For US citizens who barely graduated high school and have no marketable skills and have been unemployed then it sucks.

However for those of use who think forward and are flexible the past few years have been pretty good.
No.

In the long run, this country is headed in ONE direction, just like any currency pair.

Even if you're not feeling it "now," you will be. It's happened a million times in history to countless civilizations, only a fool would believe that any society could be IMMUNE to something so natural.
Quoting Spreadbetter
+1, the participation in the labour force rate is now at historic lows, the number declined by 0.2% to 63.6% as the number of people out of the labour force increased by over 540K to 88,883,000 whilst close on 50 million receive food stamps.
So what? If they are not seeking employment and are out of the labor market why should they be included in the unemployment numbers? BTW many of those 50 million receiving food stamps are being encouraged to do so by the US government; like a drug addict giving free crack samples.

Quoting Spreadbetter
And the 55-69 year olds are getting jobs at the expense of the 25-54 group. Grandpa is manning the deep fat fryer in Burger King to make up the pennies lost in his shitty pension, the majority of pensioners are retiring with less than $10K.
Whose fault is that? The entire concept of retirement is a newer idea anyway. Back in the 19th century you basically worked until you died - that's why social security had such a surplus.

Quoting Spreadbetter
The USSA is fubar it'll be fascinating to watch how it (and it's populist arrogance) copes with third world wages and the devastating affect it will have on consumerism, which is 70% of their economy. Sure they'll revert to pushing ninja mortgage loans again, to get folk to buy prefabs and wooden houses, but the cycle down will continue.
Not really - those with education and means will continue to do well; those with subpar intelligence will continue to work longer and harder making less and less to support their neighbors who have figured out how to 'scam' the system with 100 weeks of unemployment and food stamps while working off the books.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting fxsport
Irregardless
........
Quoting kibescorp
This.

History repeats itself.

Everything in the universe is in an endless cycle, end of story.

We can be "certain" of where this country is headed because it might as well be a formation of DOMINOES being knocked down.
Wow, keep thinking like that and yes YOU will be doomed to repeat history. If you owned a horse and buggy factory in 1900 you needed to get into another line of work.

Maybe you owned Kodak or Polaroid?

People who dont' adapt are doomed but those of us who do adapt do well.

When the Roman Empire fell do you really think everyone died out? The smart ones took their wealth elsewhere while Nero fiddled.
...because you never know - until you do!
BTW for you doom and gloom people do you know what the unemployment rate is for North Dakota? That place is BOOMING.

Ohio is another example of a state that is doing better.
...because you never know - until you do!
i am trying to work shorter hours and easier but make a lot more money. wish me luck
This is where we lose track of price action - in the "great debate" over a future that is impossible to forecast and even worse still - the debate will at best confuse any rational view of how the market will play near term. So what is here to gained? I am out of here. Period.
Quoting jaygee
i am trying to work shorter hours and easier but make a lot more money. wish me luck
Hey Jaygee, good luck! next target from here: 1.2844 before a retracement
Quoting Loadedgun
This is where we lose track of price action - in the "great debate" over a future that is impossible to forecast and even worse still - the debate will at best confuse any rational view of how the market will play near term. So what is here to gained? I am out of here. Period.
Hey Loadedgun, what I have encountered for a very long time now, that "debates" about political and monetary policies (that which is considered to be a measure for our trading forecasts) are only a driver for the current cycles in currency pairs.

What i mean by that is: sometimes you get positive news about i.e. USD, but the USD is losing ground, where then people call the move "risk on" when the cycle was showing a down move, but when the cycle was showing "up" they call it then "risk off". The main reason for a currency to move up or down is NOT the news but the cycle itself and how fast it moves, depends on how many news you see..be it economic numbers or fundamental news.
leaning towards a short term long here. good luck to you to. my signals are a bit mixed so i am in no hurry
Quoting jaygee
leaning towards a short term long here. good luck to you to. my signals are a bit mixed so i am in no hurry
Thanks. But I would like to warn you for entering a long before we see .2844 at least, better yet, .2816. the RSI is rising only on the 5M chart, but it can be taken down before reaching 50
buy eur/usd 2890. see something about obama and boehner meeting today and not wanting to disclose anything about their meeting. give it a shot
I would be careful about a short term long, by my definition of short term.
My tea leaves show no trade currently.
Face-palm part two..

Quoting fxsport
So what? many of those 50 million receiving food stamps are being encouraged to do so by the US government; like a drug addict giving free crack samples.

In the 19th century you basically worked until you died.

Those with subpar intelligence will continue to work longer and harder making less and less to support their neighbors who have figured out how to 'scam' the system with 100 weeks of unemployment and food stamps while working off the books.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Why did you feel the need to post your calls on this thread and disrupt it?

Quoting jaygee
i am trying to work shorter hours and easier but make a lot more money. wish me luck
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
price dropped right to the low close on my 5m and the rsi was almost pegged. saw that news and decided to give it a whirl.
Quoting turanius
Thanks. But I would like to warn you for entering a long before we see .2844 at least, better yet, .2816. the RSI is rising only on the 5M chart, but it can be taken down before reaching 50
open short EURUSD 1.2904
and while all that is happening, i am banking on this trade. close the gap please
Quoting jaygee
and while all that is happening, i am banking on this trade. close the gap please
it may doesn't close the gap but see .2914, where I have placed another sell order.
Were the USA is concerned we're watching the end of an empire in very slow motion. However, there's never been an empire this powerful and this mobile in the history of our civilisation. In short they won't give up without a fight to the death and tptb in the USA have the will and the psychopathic tendency to bring us all down with them.

Quoting kibescorp
No.

In the long run, this country is headed in ONE direction, just like any currency pair.

Even if you're not feeling it "now," you will be. It's happened a million times in history to countless civilizations, only a fool would believe that any society could be IMMUNE to something so natural.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting AaronWard
Im curious guys. You say the US economy is sh!t and that things are only going to get worse. Putting the present aside for now, how can you speak of the future with such certainty?
Simple - Look at what happened to the Roman Empire.

Same thing here- laziness, a sense of entitlement, over reach with military, you name it. Its the same formula. A sense that everything is possible and that all things can be done.

a rather naive belief that we Americans can become something other than human beings with all of humanities weaknesses. Others have tried and failed and so will we
5m rsi 50 test . i will give it a little more
Quoting turanius
it may doesn't close the gap but see .2914, where I have placed another sell order.
It is inevitable that the USA will be overtaken by China as THE leading economy. However, it's different this time versus other historical empire collapses given the military power and the power the petro-dollar.

My hope is that the USA pulls in it's horns, becomes protectionist and self sufficient and not by fracking and ruining its water supply for future generations.

Quoting Villageidiot
Simple - Look at what happened to the Roman Empire.

Same thing here- laziness, a sense of entitlement, over reach with military, you name it. Its the same formula. A sense that everything is possible and that all things can be done.

a rather naive belief that we Americans can become something other than human beings with all of humanities weaknesses. Others have tried and failed and so will we
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Dropping unemployment rate and record food stamp usage...something ain't right.
There is a danger in naively expecting the 'clever people' to continue infinite growth on a finite planet with finite resources. The cleverest guys in the room solved the global slump with more debt, QE and zirp. The cleverest guys in energy decide to ruin and waste the most precious resource, water, in pursuit of another. This time may be different in as much as once the energy tipping point is fully breached, upon which the whole USA economy is constructed, there's nothing new, no replacements.

Quoting fxsport
BTW for you doom and gloom people do you know what the unemployment rate is for North Dakota? That place is BOOMING.

Ohio is another example of a state that is doing better.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting turanius
Hey Loadedgun, what I have encountered for a very long time now, that "debates" about political and monetary policies (that which is considered to be a measure for our trading forecasts) are only a driver for the current cycles in currency pairs.

What i mean by that is: sometimes you get positive news about i.e. USD, but the USD is losing ground, where then people call the move "risk on" when the cycle was showing a down move, but when the cycle was showing "up" they call it then "risk off". The main reason for a currency to move up or...
I am with you 100% in fact that is what I have just about finally sorted out - how to predict (or rather identify) the phase of the cycle. You see each cycle or "oscillation" has two phases major (trend) and minor (retrace) whether going up or down just like any wave. This is what I have been "preaching" and why everyone hates my guts. You are spot on.

Of course if Price is at a resistance (like the Euro was last week) after have traveled something like 2.618 from its fractal primitive root on the Fibonacci scale (measured in H4) it will revert to mean (which I personally did not see as the distance covered since I rarely use the fib tool which I have now adopted - i.e. the expansion tool and just coded it to read point values as well and thanks to you and jaygee ranting about fibs). So my linear mind worked against me there insofar as making projections are concerned.

But the point is given that fact one could have predicted (like you did accurately) and profited well from the reaction at that level without talking or thinking about Draghi and the ECB. And indeed that is the point.
BTW Fibonacci ratios are fully chaotic variables and form an entire chaotic series - if you look at the ratios they approach but do not exact 618.

PS: I mean "series" in english.
The USA is undergoing the same paradigm shift in employment habits as the uk and Europe, a move towards low paid contract work for the majority with a tiny elite exploiting that workforce. In the uk part time workers are close on 9 million, self employment is at circa 6 million. This is a social change in less than a decade.

Politicians will claim this is an indication of flexibility and adaptability in truth it's a sign of desperation as globalisation inevitably causes 'our' wages to fall in line with the BRICS.

Quoting rjd33
Dropping unemployment rate and record food stamp usage...something ain't right.
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
Quoting Spreadbetter
There is a danger in naively expecting the 'clever people' to continue infinite growth on a finite planet with finite resources. The cleverest guys in the room solved the global slump with more debt, QE and zirp. The cleverest guys in energy decide to ruin and waste the most precious resource, water, in pursuit of another. This time may be different in as much as once the energy tipping point is fully breached, upon which the whole USA economy is constructed, there's nothing new, no replacements.
Does not work that way - in 1798 Malthus similarly predicted resource exhaustion but we are here today. Will not want to go into the dialectics as they involve technicalities too heavy (and undeserving) for the space here. Suffice it to say we are still here and I suspect we will be for a long time still despite seeming flaws in the way the world works - probably stems from as simple a phrase as "where there is the will there is always a way" - and I am really out out here this is not how I want to spend my time on FF. Just a thought.
Quoting Villageidiot
Simple - Look at what happened to the Roman Empire.

Same thing here- laziness, a sense of entitlement, over reach with military, you name it. Its the same formula. A sense that everything is possible and that all things can be done.

a rather naive belief that we Americans can become something other than human beings with all of humanities weaknesses. Others have tried and failed and so will we
The Roman Empire lasted over 600 years so.....
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Spreadbetter
Were the USA is concerned we're watching the end of an empire in very slow motion. However, there's never been an empire this powerful and this mobile in the history of our civilisation. In short they won't give up without a fight to the death and tptb in the USA have the will and the psychopathic tendency to bring us all down with them.
I'll bet that's what people thought in 1928 too.

Unlike the UK which has limited land and resources the US has too much going for it.
...because you never know - until you do!
Quoting Spreadbetter
There is a danger in naively expecting the 'clever people' to continue infinite growth on a finite planet with finite resources. The cleverest guys in the room solved the global slump with more debt, QE and zirp. The cleverest guys in energy decide to ruin and waste the most precious resource, water, in pursuit of another. This time may be different in as much as once the energy tipping point is fully breached, upon which the whole USA economy is constructed, there's nothing new, no replacements.
What are you talking about? You sound like the idiot talking heads in the 1970's who said the world would be out of oil by the year 2000. Guess what they were wrong and so are you.

This planet is composed of 2/3 water there's plenty available. Ok so maybe 9/10 of that is not fit for human consumption but that's what desalination plants are for. In addition the use of cisterns, cloud seeding and other forms of weather manipulation yet to be fully refined.

Your myopic world view hold you back...come join the 21st century will you?
...because you never know - until you do!
Hahahahaha, that's some spectacularly uninformed drivel. You don't hold back on the ignorance and lack of facts and research do you? LOL. It must be quite comforting for you, ignorance is bliss eh? LOL.. Thanks for the chuckle.

Quoting fxsport
What are you talking about? You sound like the idiot talking heads in the 1970's who said the world would be out of oil by the year 2000. Guess what they were wrong and so are you.

This planet is composed of 2/3 water there's plenty available. Ok so maybe 9/10 of that is not fit for human consumption but that's what desalination plants are for. In addition the use of cisterns, cloud seeding and other forms of weather manipulation yet to be fully refined.

Your myopic world view hold you back...come join the 21st century will you?
"The meek shall inherit the earth.." Yeah right, good luck with that shit..
yes but more importantly i have 21 pips here. should i close or hold until tomorrow?
Quoting jaygee
yes but more importantly i have 21 pips here. should i close or hold until tomorrow?
Hey Jaygee, if you ask me; yes, close them, cause tomorrow you will be in red, maybe deep in red, if you leave the position open.
hey you are the guy that told me not to take it in the first place. i won't hold it over anyhow. thought i would get a little more out of it. i could tell you where i was going to exit but i dont want to upset anyone talking about trading. what is with these people anyhow? lol
Hey jaygee..I think
turanius is right. I would pocket them my friend. Don't be greedy by trying to buck against a big move like this one. You made enough last week anyway! LOL!
Quoting jaygee
hey you are the guy that told me not to take it in the first place. i won't hold it over anyhow. thought i would get a little more out of it. i could tell you where i was going to exit but i dont want to upset anyone talking about trading. what is with these people anyhow? lol
Lol, yes but you also know that I had a sell order placed @1.2914 which got triggered and the price bounced 2 times from that level and now heading downward. about the people: I do not know, but it seems to me that some people have a problem with themselfes, wanting to punch everyone who comes accross :-)
Quoting BaitUp
Hey jaygee..I think
turanius is right. I would pocket them my friend. Don't be greedy by trying to buck against a big move like this one. You made enough last week anyway! LOL!
Quoting turanius
Lol, yes but you also know that I had a sell order placed @1.2914 which got triggered and the price bounced 2 times from that level and now heading downward. about the people: I do not know, but it seems to me that some people have a problem with themselfes, wanting to punch everyone who comes accross :-)
lol good to come across a couple of decent technical traders that know whats up. 5m fav line is my exit. good talking to you guys tonight. ok enough talking about trading, lets talk old wore out empires. WHAT?? lol
Good talking to you too my friend. Sure looks like an interesting week coming up. Hope I can stick to my method and not go offtrack as I have in the past. I have never had a bad trade(-50 pips or more) unless I messed with my own formula...unfortunately more often than I am willing to admit..
SHould sell gold at 1706??????
Quoting fxsport
You don't have to believe anything, just accept it and make money....

You have a choice:

Be right - or be happy.
Awesome
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Awesome
But human frailty and ego will not allow - they want it attributed to their knowledge (their very own know how), to their "brain power" - so they introduce a false logic to a system is set to run on a very simple basis like everything else in nature - that is why they lose all of the time but still can't figure out whY!!!
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.115.180
"For the model in this post, we use monthly estimates of the headline CPI, u, and labor force, all reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The time lags are the same as in (1) but coefficients are different since we use month to month-a-year-ago rates of growth. We have also allowed for changing inflation coefficient. The best fit models for the period after 1978 are as follows:

u(t) = 0.63p(t-2.5) + 2.0dLF(t-5)/dtLF(t-5) + 0.07; between 1978 and 2003

u(t) = 0.90p(t-2.5) + 4.0dLF(t-5)/dtLF(t-5) + 0.30; after 2003

There is a structural break in 2003 which is needed to fit the predictions".

Eventually I have figured out how Bernanke works monetary policy to bring down unemployment. But the formula is being modified right now. should have the solution in about 2 hours.
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solution: unemployment is not a function of time. so t- values are of no value cos they come from bls whose data has no mathematical grounding. I have now forwarded bls.gov the new formula with t+ values, which should aid them in providing more accurate data in future.
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  • Posted: Dec 9, 2012 11:15am
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     Newsstand
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 68  /  Views: 14,810