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  • EUR/USD Forecast December 10-14

    From forexcrunch.com

    EUR/USD has an exciting week that began with a gradual climb and a sharp downfall, as Draghi dragged down the euro, below last week’s close. Where will the pair go from here? German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Flash PMIs are the main events on our calendar. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers this week. Following last week’s ECB rate decision, president Mario Draghi hinted on a rate cut possibly at their next meeting after reducing ECB’s forecasts for the euro zone’s economy. The Bundesabnk followed with its own lower forecasts. Draghi,also opened the door for a negative deposit rate. Will these ... (full story)

I agree with the fall of euro for this week at least.....new scenario will be seen for next week.....
long euro for 1.3250
Quoting tidicofx
long euro for 1.3250
1.35 !!! LOL
Interview with President of the European Commission. Important point to be presented this week the molds of banking integration!


http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/mundo/201...projeto-de-paz
Euro will go S
moaf
Which the movement do you think most likely?
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  • | IP XX.XX.4.50
Here is my analysis,
There are 2 different factors that move the Eur/Usd. The cloud in the US is lead by the fiscal cliff and the one in Euro is (at the moment in my view) lead by the fail of Germany into recession among other cloud, like Greece, Italy, Spain and even France (2nd economy getting weaker) economy that are not in good health according to the series of bad data in the eurozone last week. So far one have to keep in mind that Euro almost if not totally look at only Germany for support but for how long?
So far this week, considering that the results in the US were better last week and that the fiscal cliff is so far an old story in the back of most of the traders head waiting for new development, it can be concluded that the US will not drive the market this week unless the FOMC announces some unexpected rate or some other measure.
Well in my opinion the market will be driven by the news in Europe which will remain bad.

So the couple eur/usd will fall some more this week
EURUSD is 1.2887 as of now...
Quoting IberoForex
moaf
Which the movement do you think most likely?
I am buying and selling as always but my medium term bias is bearish. My target is 1.25 first and I think we will reach it before 1.32. Expect 1.20 testing before 1.4. Till the end of year and first quarter expect strong dollar across the board. Weak EUR is good for everyone now. Price action favor bears. But this is just my opinion. Monday I will wait to sell on tops. What is strange is strong AUD, so be careful. You can see my moves on my account, waiting for new VPS (check my profile).
Here is my analysis.
If there are more buyers than sellers, eur/usd will go up and if there are more sellers than buyers than eur/usd will go down. Now this is the important part so listen up. If there are the same numbers of buyers and sellers, eur/usd will be flat. I am 95% sure of this unless it is wrong. Then i will not be so sure of it.
Quoting mima
EURUSD is 1.2887 as of now...
Can't find it at any reliable broker as of now ...
Thanks is always nice to hear from those who have more experience!




Quoting moaf
I am buying and selling as always but my medium term bias is bearish. My target is 1.25 first and I think we will reach it before 1.32. Expect 1.20 testing before 1.4. Till the end of year and first quarter expect strong dollar across the board. Weak EUR is good for everyone now. Price action favor bears. But this is just my opinion. Monday I will wait to sell on tops. What is strange is strong AUD, so be careful. You can see my moves on my account, waiting for new VPS (check my profile).
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Edited at 2:48pm Dec 9, 2012 2:29pm | Edited at 2:48pm
esignal data, FXCM MT4.
Quoting mima
esignal data, FXCM MT4.
got it.
Quoting jaygee
Here is my analysis.
I am 95% sure of this unless it is wrong. Then i will not be so sure of it.
Verry Interesting....!!!

Quoting moaf
I am buying and selling as always but my medium term bias is bearish. My target is 1.25 first and I think we will reach it before 1.32. Expect 1.20 testing before 1.4. Till the end of year and first quarter expect strong dollar across the board. Weak EUR is good for everyone now. Price action favor bears. But this is just my opinion. Monday I will wait to sell on tops. What is strange is strong AUD, so be careful. You can see my moves on my account, waiting for new VPS (check my profile).
You are right, but your prediction seems bit longer term e.g. weekly or monthly, right?....I also think that euro is in medium term bearish, but still yet to confirm in daily chart. I expect euro to fall up to 1.2830 at least in this week....

Wish you all happy trading...
i think this week eurusd will drop more 100 pips down
Moaf,

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/

Quoting moaf
Can't find it at any reliable broker as of now ...
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:38am Dec 10, 2012 5:23am | Edited at 7:38am
The Euro, GBP will fall short-term and bounce to rise strongly (EUR 1.28160 LE, GBP 1.59410, 1.58580 LE). AUD set to fall more severely (1.03962, 1.03227, 1.02037 1st,2nd and 3rd targets on the FE scale) as is USD/JPY (81.78, 81.14, 80.10 1st, 2nd, 3rd targets on the FE scale). Gold is on the rise until 1755 LE.

BTW: LE = latest estimates. In addition I take a long-term view of the market and therefore my rise and fall estimates are based strictly on the D1 time frame. These projections are made with 95% confidence.
However, I would like to further explain my take on AUD. Projected from a fractal primitive base defined by the following inequality B>C>A (B=1.04800 , C=1.02871 and A=1.01485) this footprint is bullish and indeed confirmed for an uptrend. But I have my personal doubts due to seeming lack of appetite for the usual sustained drive for bonus (or whatever makes the stock markets go gaga about this time every year). We seem to be running out of time for that and hence my tentative assumption of a surprise fall against all odds.

Therefore technically AUD should be aiming for 1.06129 (FE 100 from the fractal base) being currently at (FE 61.8 at it's current high). But I have my doubts as explained above though not in a trade yet and still watching.
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Quoting moaf
I am buying and selling as always but my medium term bias is bearish. My target is 1.25 first and I think we will reach it before 1.32. Expect 1.20 testing before 1.4. Till the end of year and first quarter expect strong dollar across the board. Weak EUR is good for everyone now. Price action favor bears. But this is just my opinion. Monday I will wait to sell on tops. What is strange is strong AUD, so be careful. You can see my moves on my account, waiting for new VPS (check my profile).
Expect not 1.20 , because that is wish full thinking , it will not go below 1.25 anytime soon, and 1.32 will come way before 1.20, there is simply not enough negative drivers for eur at the moment , infact the scene is positive at the moment not negative, journalists and economists and technical traders's opinion is not valid. sorry.
Draghi dragged down the euro . Euro should Down Now . ECB Rate Down IN 2013
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