Downturn in UK manufacturing accelerates at start of Q4 2012

lol...xD bad! real bad

It can not be ...

Else whispered to you

I sell all ^^, 1 way win

As always optimistic!! There are no more bears ...!!

A rather muted market reaction....

hehehe. 1 hour cansdle still not end, It end in 7 minutes , then sell Pound immediately

The fiscal year is already over for some businesses ... Now, volatility for the coming year .... LOL

Market is busy - no time for trifle. We got to decide how the month ahead is gonna be can't pay attention to every piece of data - not the practice and never will be.

time for buy usd

It actually effects euro more than gbp. This is splendid.

FTSE and EURUSD head and shoulders

lol. market always need time to read article ; how worse pound is, then they sell ^^

GBP PMI down but GBP/USD going up .. wow..

All the recent data has been positive. GDP, employment, retail all up. Difficult to see why this should be market-changing, PMs just being cautious before Christmas.

Depends on your time frame and assessment for the periods ahead - these news items are random but price is not so in behavior. Below was posted elsewhere just to share here might be helpful in looking at prospects especially for the Euro (but the GBP as well given close positive correlations between the pairs and given that the exact simple principles apply - "news is noise" in direction - good maybe for a short-term view of things but not fundamental to how the market works):

In terms of fractal analysis - the last monthly candle closed and therefore established successfully in the volatility envelope it entered last month allowing the new month to start with the average momentum up maintained (in effect passing on the baton for a move up to the next volatility envelope on the chaotic scale to the current monthly candle). If we look at the weekly which is a fractal or fraction of the monthly time frame - we see that a "line" of alternating weekly candles (alternating in color) maintain the levels that reflect this no loss of momentum finding. Again the daily which is in dynamic equilibrium reflects the weekly dynamic (as derives from the monthly) in that it trends down for each down weekly candle and up for each up weekly candle. It is pretty clear therefore what is going on - there can be no talk of a Euro slide or reversal lower until a weekly candle breaks the line lower. But there can be all confidence for an upwardly mobile Euro in the days ahead if the required support is established by the the current weekly candle. So long as we have support above 1.28032 the Euro is bullish and if that level is broken then clearly a slide is on the cards.

This is the "larger" picture in terms of the constant struggle between bulls and bears (which takes place ceaselessly and follows the same structure even @ (+) and (-) infinity, i.e. whether you use a time frame defined in milliseconds or less or a time frame defined in decades or more it is the same - hence fractals) - once determined on any scale or level (e.g. the weekly) the rest is obvious. It is taking in and exploiting this understanding by correct timing of entry and exit for the different duration and directions that define these dynamics that we call trading.

Therefore this understanding cannot be negated once established either by the multitude of lines "technical" speculators like to draw and speculate about (usually with poor outcomes) or the voodoo, rumor and superstitions that is usually glorified as "fundamental" analysis. The truth is simple the market is mean reverting and fractal in structure and valid analysis of its outlook can only come from assessments based on these factors. For instance the current dynamic in play is all about whether the market will close above or below the monthly pivot - if above then it confirms objectively what the underlying market tendency is with respect to the Euro at this time. But based on mean reversion one can be confident of what the most likely result will be - which is a rising Euro - simple.

BTW: The last part here refers to whether the current weekly candle establishes a base below or above the new monthly average and relative to our most relevant low price point, i.e. 1.28032

market ready to swing

I think Government intervene into the market to reduce the depreciate of Pound. At the end, it will go down for sure

same shit with every bad data ..

Bad data is bad data, data dont lie

Does anyone know why the heck is GBP/USA is not going down?

Finally, downtrend start ^^. data dont lie, thats is the market

if there is any reason for having margin call is because of fake data ok.

data do not tell a lie but we always think market should swing according to our position that cannot happen at all

go us green go

I thank you for this explanation, and for saving me the irksome task of trawling your posts for any basis of your strategy. If I could give you a vouch I would.

I will take issue with you on this.... The line-drawing can be seen by examination to be valid, however the prediction of future movements remains only a probable outcome.

Voodoo, rumour, examination of the runes remains exactly what it is; however fundamental analysis includes your own methods namely an assessment of likely market behaviour based upon facts. Your facts are the historic candle patterns to which you refer, other fundamental facts are the trade balance of any country (affecting order flow) or GDP growth rates (affecting inward investment). Fundamental analysis, imho, is never valid on an intraday basis.

As for EU, my lines drawn on a 4hr chart predict a rise to ~1.3050 in the next few candles provided that upward momentum is maintained. However with the NFP due tomorrow predicting PA over that time frame is rather uncertain.