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US Week Ahead: Oct NFP, ISM Manuf, Factory Orders, Consumer Conf
Our preliminary October employment forecast looks for a gain of 130K in nonfarm payrolls – up from 114K in September. However, the unemployment rate is expected to tick back up to 7.9%. October employment-related data available for our model estimates has been limited. The employment components of the October Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing surveys deteriorated from September but the Markit PMI employment measure improved in October, leading us to expect little change in the ISM manufacturing PMI employment component. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have exhibited some unusual weekly volatility. ... (full story)