Fan , good analysis but I think Draghi or Merkel need to come out and say something to keep the EUR under control. Their efforts will be wasted and the recession will deepen if the EUR gets any stronger
Rally since July: The EUR/USD has been in a bullish mode since the 1.2042 low from July 24. The euro has been in a reprieve and the US dollar has been losing ground due to increasing speculation of the FOMC to implement QE3. Even before the NFP last Friday (9/7), the market already pushed through the key resistance pivot near 1.2750. As we begin a new week, the EUR/USD is challenged by some resistance factors. 1) As the daily chart show, the RSI just tagged 70, a sign of near-term overbought condition, but also a sign of nascent bullish momentum in this time-frame. 2) Another factor is the 200-Day SMA, a common ... (full story)
DislikedI think mr market will hold until fomc. If it rallies it is buy the rumor sell the news.Ignored
DislikedEUR is now at the upper echelon of the declining channel, if EUR/USD manages to go beyond 1.2951 then this babe is back; anyway it could be false break but two USD negative events are in work this week; German vote (yea in motion, any nay EUR/USD off 150 pips in 15 mins) and Fedís QE3 (most severe damaging event for USD, this may set a stage for EUR/USD to go beyond 1.3500 easily) so the olds are still against USD!
Mr. Marketís dilemma ---German vote passed, No QE3 or German experiment failed and QE3!
German experiment successful and full blown...Ignored