Speculators Joined The Crowd, Betting On A Stronger EUR Recovery

The contrary view depends on the idea that we have hit resistance at 1.26 but we have since hit support at 1.24817 the question is how significant is the support. I think it is pretty significant (even if too subtle for the news wires). Just like price trades in phases – traders trade in paradigms. One paradigm is that fundamentals define price action. Implying that one looks to fundamentals for guidance then enter positions defined technically. However, one problem with this thinking is that it complicates the demand on ones psychological balance and increases the risk of indecision since fundamentals do not specify pivots. Taking trades this way means guesses around timing since immediate action may not be in phase with any prevailing fundamental sentiment.

However, if we shift the paradigm (and we can) to one where trades are setup to trade pivots irrespective of the news-then timing improves. Since the first paradigm ignores a fundamental fact – all market events are looped back to price and that is why price fluctuates in the first place (in this theory, events change the balance of supply and demand when they (events) are important). The irrationalities of human emotion are less evident in “this” or “that” decisions. So for instance a H4 down pivot tells you only one thing – that, the H4 Time Frame will complete 1 cycle of upward movement (significant if in trend). This is true in a probabilistic sense so that it is probably more profitable to trade up for that period than to engage in alternative idea the numbers or (S/R) you can see might suggest.

I see many H4 reactions as we head into the new week. From the Euro to the Yen. That is odd because if the $ is gonna be so weak – then the yen wants to be strong – weakness across the board assures it is truly weak. This red flag cautions of having too extensive an expectation of the upside bias (near term). However, there is also one important way technical studies work – the acceleration of trades when a barrier is broken unexpectedly. Projecting that far out may be too far out to be predictable. But could be kept in view. Ah yes the news and eco events, you find them falling in line like a miracle – this because, in the main, news lags price action most of the time especially once you have a confirmed pivot in play. The Euro for instance could make 1.28 (1.26) this coming week – IF 1.2470/49 holds.

Two levels of risk taking (in terms of the upside) and a potential surprise if support fails that is the play we see. However, for the bullish (i.e. long-term aggressive players) you could draw a line in the sand at support and place your bet and wait for your range to play out (in this case for the monthly to trend by the next bar). Though I personally see no long-term direction out there yet and can’t confirm anything – the evidence is of a bullish bias in the coming unit (the monthly bar – the one that is going to contain all fractals for the month – the mother of all bars in any month). So any test of 1.2470/49 is crucial and looks like it is going on now (its for me the key level of importance).

BTW: I have been long EUR, AUD, and USD/JPY (the latter since Friday) for a little while now. I am holding positions over the weekend (since I am in line with the current H4 pivots).

LOL, 98617 long , 222549 short contracts ...

Well said, go with the flow using significant price, sell euro on confirmation break down at 1.247 then adding more short postion after 1.235 break, if it holds though at 1.247, change of plan, and that is ok and has to be ok....go with the flow.

u heavy duty lg, f EURUSD, there beta things 2 trade. moaf i seen your face b4, donno where. me cowboy

loaded gun ...a gantze derasha ...

Eur-usd has slipped down for a year. On monthly chart, euro is in a support zone (big triangle's low end, and 1.2400 level). The time of cycle also indicate this downward swing nearly run out time. Next move may be a up swing cycle(correction or new up trend).

Fundamental shift often show in monthly or weekly chart. EU debt crisis may be in worst time. Forecast the scenarios of 6 months or 1 year later EU and US economic status are main focus from fundy models or fundy direction bias.

US debt crisis and continue $6000 plus billions defence spending will intensify US debt woe, which will drag US into a possible significant debt crisis in 1 year horizontal time.

So, EU is in the worst state, but, US is starting to move into worst state. Market won't like uncertain of the worst.

upside, eye 1.3666 or down trendline. downside, up trendline or 1.1650

I agree with this very much - would be strange if we break the monthly support. But you never know - got to be a slave to direction.

In trading, only on correct direction, you can win; yes, if you are a good slaver of price move direction, then, you can win. To be a slaver, to be a winner in fx for long-run.

Actually, it is not hard to be a slaver of price, if you see a swing high on daily chart, then, give down swing to go; if see a swing low on daily, then, give up swing to go.