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  • Swiss Franc Cap May Stay at 1.20 as Hildebrand Resists Call From Exporters

    From bloomberg.com

    The Swiss central bank may resist pressure from exporters to further curb the strength of the franc as officials avoid testing the credibility of their currency policy and take time to assess deflation risks. The Swiss National Bank (SNBN), led by Philipp Hildebrand, will keep the franc’s minimum exchange rate at 1.20 per euro, according to 9 out of 13 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The Zurich-based central bank will also maintain its benchmark interest rate at zero, when policy makers announce their decision at 9:30 a.m. tomorrow, a separate survey shows. SNB policy makers are weighing the risks of ... (full story)

Euro is down almost 2000 pips from its high, and down 1200 pips from October. It looks like it has another 1000-3000 pips to go before it is done.

As long as the CHF is pegged to the Euro, it is locked into automatic devaluation.
CHF is NOT pegged to the EURO
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro#Currencies_pegged_to_the_euro
So, u means devaluation will spike up the echf?. With double bottom, it seems possible thou....
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.13.110
i think there is a upside rally in gold & eur/usd
Technically you are right. However most traders refer to the 1.20 ceiling set on the CHF as a peg. It is just so much easier to type peg than it is to type "the ceiling set on the CHF"
Quoting johnbaem
So, u means devaluation will spike up the echf?. With double bottom, it seems possible thou....
Against the USD the CHF trades like a weak version of the Euro.
Quoting AaronWard
Against the USD the CHF trades like a weak version of the Euro.
But if its against Euro, which is ultimately weak, does that means sideways? Ive heard some stops around 1.2400.
“Moving the floor when euro-zone concerns are high risks tempting market attack. If markets broke a 1.25 floor, they would be more inclined to attack the 1.20 level.”

If SNB does nothing and e/u keeps falling market will attack the 1.20 anyway
Quoting iwjw
“Moving the floor when euro-zone concerns are high risks tempting market attack. If markets broke a 1.25 floor, they would be more inclined to attack the 1.20 level.”

If SNB does nothing and e/u keeps falling market will attack the 1.20 anyway
Haaaa.... Now i ustand. Which SNB try to protect 1.20 level, i know what i should do now... Thanks mate!!!
Quoting iwjw
“Moving the floor when euro-zone concerns are high risks tempting market attack. If markets broke a 1.25 floor, they would be more inclined to attack the 1.20 level.”

If SNB does nothing and e/u keeps falling market will attack the 1.20 anyway
Good luck with that. I watched the Euro fall 1300 pips (September). The 1.2 ceiling was defended for a total of 1 hour. And that was on the first day of the peg.
Quoting AaronWard
Good luck with that. I watched the Euro fall 1300 pips (September). The 1.2 ceiling was defended for a total of 1 hour. And that was on the first day of the peg.
Won't say we will see 1.20...but in case SNB is on hold 1.21xx is doable if things come together.
I'm flat here and will see what happens tomm. If we get around 1.2175 I'll probably be a buyer with 175pips initial risk
If it goes up(without me)...so be it
I would be very happy if I saw 1.21xx and would load up on the Euro at that price.
Quoting AaronWard
I would be very happy if I saw 1.21xx and would load up on the Euro at that price.
Will also watch (in case) around 1.2250 and when it stalls there...last time we got there, there seemed to be support...wouldn't rule it out that SNB got it's hands on it
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.14.101
Quoting iwjw
Won't say we will see 1.20...but in case SNB is on hold 1.21xx is doable if things come together.
I'm flat here and will see what happens tomm. If we get around 1.2175 I'll probably be a buyer with 175pips initial risk
If it goes up(without me)...so be it
Quoting iwjw
Won't say we will see 1.20...but in case SNB is on hold 1.21xx is doable if things come together.
I'm flat here and will see what happens tomm. If we get around 1.2175 I'll probably be a buyer with 175pips initial risk
If it goes up(without me)...so be it
wouldn't it be smarter from you to buy now at current level bt. 1.2300/20 and wait for tommorow?!! how can you dream abiut 1.2100 or even 1.22 bt. today and tommorow, what are you afraid of?!! 300 pips that you'll never loose since 1.2000 is well defended, at worst keep on counting your positive swap each day smarty!!
I don't know what figures the SNB officials are looking at. CHF is *weaker* than it was against USD at the start of the year and is maybe 100 pips stronger than EUR than it was at the start of the year. Maybe they are taking the policy of the squeaky wheel getting the oil...
The price is always right; the price is always wrong.
Quoting Guest
wouldn't it be smarter from you to buy now at current level bt. 1.2300/20 and wait for tommorow?!! how can you dream abiut 1.2100 or even 1.22 bt. today and tommorow, what are you afraid of?!! 300 pips that you'll never loose since 1.2000 is well defended, at worst keep on counting your positive swap each day smarty!!
I don't believe that SNB will do anything to weaken chf tomorrow
That's why I simply want a better entry than now...There's still a possible downgrade by S&P lurking and in case it surely won't help e/u and e/chf will be dragged down with it.
As I said before: If goes up without me, so be it
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.14.101
You might be right by no intervention as it's 50-50 possibility and as most Central Banks do not intervene when it is known or waited by many traders as BOJ had been doing, it didn't intervene at day of expectation as i remember it was friday but kept it as surprise and intervened at monday
same might be with SNB but surely not same slow intervention and rounds as BOJ but a quick spike for 500-1000 pips, in all cases would always hold some orders waiting for possible intervention that if not sooner would be later, anyway it would be coming coming, it is not only my or your wish but exporters that make hedeache each day for SNB to take the action just as japanese exporters had done & still with BOJ
But well remember that it's end of year and talks had been wide about intervention as a Christmas Gift by SNB, it might be a joke but you loose nothing but it's a win win situation
if you have enough margin leverage well Money Management simply open a single order at current price and keep till tomorrow, better no intervention happen and you loose nothing than say after intervention " if I just bought 1 single order" remember Central Banks do not always intervene. I was ready for all previous interventions by BOJ which had gained me Big Money more than most of my years daily trading since I set big lots with reasonable number of open orders, ofcourse with Good MM since I have a big account & have the instinct when the Central Banks might Intervene, sometimes I also managed combined or joint intervention as recently to power the euro
Never say "if"

Good Luck
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.172.70
- 0,8 deflation - today's figure... it may force SNB to act
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  • | IP XX.XXX.191.46
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