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  • S&P lowers unsolicited rtgs on Italy to 'A/A-1'; outlook neg

  • Post #1
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:24pm Sep 19, 2011 6:24pm
All you Euro bulls can forget 1.42 for now.
  • Post #2
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:27pm Sep 19, 2011 6:27pm
AUDUSD goin' down
  • Post #3
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:27pm Sep 19, 2011 6:27pm
damn, stoploss on my short on usd
  • Post #4
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:33pm Sep 19, 2011 6:33pm
very tired on monday
  • Post #5
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:34pm Sep 19, 2011 6:34pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XX.88.51
in the middle of the night...
  • Post #6
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:37pm Sep 19, 2011 6:37pm
I think so as well. However, are we ready for 1.30 with so much bad news already in the market? I doubt it, I think the Fed could provide relieve this week before the EUR gets smashed again. Having said that, I might open a what I call "joker trade" (very risky) and go short term LONG EUR/USD.. I will check tomorrow morning if I get a setup for that.. Cheers
  • Post #7
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:40pm Sep 19, 2011 6:40pm
Quoting RollingT
...I might open a what I call "joker trade" (very risky) and go short term LONG EUR/USD.. I will check tomorrow morning if I get a setup for that.. Cheers
I was thinking the same thing but I will probably not look into doing that unless we are sitting on strong stubborn support and I am sure there is no negative news from europe at the time.
  • Post #8
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:41pm Sep 19, 2011 6:41pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.220.20
I don't really care about what S&P doing.
This news are fantastic opportunities to buy the EUR at a lower price.
  • Post #9
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:44pm Sep 19, 2011 6:44pm
yeah, I know, it's fairly risky.. I would like to observe the market for the next one to two hours or so and look at the movements, but unfortunately I have to close the desk now, it's getting f..... late
  • Post #10
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:45pm Sep 19, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting Guest
I don't really care about what S&P doing.
This news are fantastic opportunities to buy the EUR at a lower price.
Very true. But I wouldn't be too bullish until Greece gets its next €8 Billion tranche approved.
  • Post #11
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:46pm Sep 19, 2011 6:46pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Very true. But I wouldn't be too bullish until Greece gets its next €8 Billion tranche approved.
thats already done
  • Post #12
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:47pm Sep 19, 2011 6:47pm
Quoting konrad
thats already done
Hmm I must have missed that. Where was it published?

UPDATE: The €8 Billion tranche has not yet been approved. It is only assumed that it will be... and you know what they say about assumptions.
  • Post #13
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:51pm Sep 19, 2011 6:51pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.220.20
Quoting PipTrapper
Very true. But I wouldn't be too bullish until Greece gets its next €8 Billion tranche approved.
With EURUSD you have to be more careful but I believe there are some easy pips with EUR/CHF
  • Post #14
  • Sep 19, 2011 6:55pm Sep 19, 2011 6:55pm
konrad,

That would have been very known by now, never heard from anywhere, that the 8 billions are arranged and paid for.

The "Troika" have not given a last go ahead on how Greece is doing, if the criteria for getting it, is all in place.

That process is still underway.
  • Post #15
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:04pm Sep 19, 2011 7:04pm
Quoting Jolly Roger
The "Troika" have not given a last go ahead on how Greece is doing, if the criteria for getting it, is all in place.
I thought so. I was only out for a few hours so I wasn't sure if Konrad was right or not until I checked it out myself.

Besides, if the payment had been approved, the euro would have rallied already.
  • Post #16
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:09pm Sep 19, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Hmm I must have missed that. Where was it published?

UPDATE: The €8 Billion tranche has not yet been approved. It is only assumed that it will be... and you know what they say about assumptions.
It will be published late september or early october. For now EU & IMF urges Greece to work harder on its budgetary deficit. In this way the 8B will get smaller.

The other option is to let Greece go bankrupt. IMHO that is absolutely no option because in that case, even a small EU country like the Netherlands will lose 80 billion as a consequense (thats 8% of its GDP!!!). What about France and Germany then...
  • Post #17
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:15pm Sep 19, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting konrad
It will be published late september or early october. For now EU & IMF urges Greece to work harder on its budgetary deficit. In this way the 8B will get smaller.

The other option is to let Greece go bankrupt. IMHO that is absolutely no option because in that case, even a small EU country like the Netherlands will lose 80 billion as a consequense (thats 8% of its GDP!!!). What about France and Germany then...
Yes Konrad. I understand what you mean and I agree a default would be a disaster. But borrowing more money to pay what you already cannot pay is an even bigger disaster waiting to happen.
Regardless, you are only assuming based on what you believe to be logic.
  • Post #18
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:18pm Sep 19, 2011 7:18pm
Quoting Guest
in the middle of the night...
rock 'n' roll tried to ruin my life.
  • Post #19
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:21pm Sep 19, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes Konrad. I understand what you mean and I agree a default would be a disaster. But borrowing more money to pay what you already cannot pay is an even bigger disaster waiting to happen.
Regardless, you are only assuming based on what you believe to be logic.
Logic is quite a big term to use, call it common sense
  • Post #20
  • Sep 19, 2011 7:25pm Sep 19, 2011 7:25pm
Quoting CalistogaKid
rock 'n' roll tried to ruin my life.
jajajaja
  • Post #21
  • Sep 19, 2011 8:11pm Sep 19, 2011 8:11pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.85.235
if there's no intervention pressure tonight, eu will come back down for a few good pips. Pbh
  • Post #22
  • Sep 20, 2011 2:39am Sep 20, 2011 2:39am
Market sentiment seems to be on the bearish side for now. Gold is expected to go touch $1500/oz in an otherwise bullish market for the metal.
EU is more concerned about austerity than growth. Therefore, my odds are in favor of a EUR short 3000 levels could be reached soon.
  • Post #23
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:53am Sep 20, 2011 3:53am
Why is the Euro currently climbing ?
  • Post #24
  • Sep 20, 2011 3:57am Sep 20, 2011 3:57am
because you are currently short....

jk... we are due for a techie retrace... plus there may be some sentiment of the Fed doing more than just Operation Twist
  • Post #25
  • Sep 20, 2011 4:01am Sep 20, 2011 4:01am
Quoting Wulfgar
because you are currently short....

jk... we are due for a techie retrace... plus there may be some sentiment of the Fed doing more than just Operation Twist

Thanks .. why does the techie retrace occur ? Is it because it opened with a gap yesterday ?
  • Post #26
  • Sep 20, 2011 4:12am Sep 20, 2011 4:12am
Quoting LearninForex
Thanks .. why does the techie retrace occur ? Is it because it opened with a gap yesterday ?
When people who are short Eur/Usd start to take profits (closing some or all of their short positions), it is in effect selling the USD and buying the euro therefore going long. That is a retrace/pullback. Trend is still bearish.
  • Post #27
  • Sep 20, 2011 5:54am Sep 20, 2011 5:54am
hi piptrapper, why are we seeing eurusd rising so high today?
  • Post #28
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:24am Sep 20, 2011 6:24am
Quoting gautam0597
Market sentiment seems to be on the bearish side for now. Gold is expected to go touch $1500/oz in an otherwise bullish market for the metal.
What is the source of this expectancy for gold?
  • Post #29
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:34am Sep 20, 2011 6:34am
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.2.123
dinnov:

because those who buy gold tend to buy other safe havens as well. The rug got pulled from under a lot of precious metal traders due to the SNB move. With euro weakness and some fear that the BOJ may do the same to the yen, the de facto "safe haven", ironically, is the USD. Coupled with the fact that margins for gold was increased, so a lot of traders had to shore up their positions, or take profit on gold to make up for CHF loss.

all in all: USD up, gold down.

Coupled with high expectations of the Fed. =>equities rallying on back of hope for now, which means safe haven down as well.

Gold bugs should do well to note that even if equities crash, gold may not go up in tandem: traders need to lock in profit from one place to make up for losses or meet margin calls elsewhere.

it's interlinked money flow.

for now, cash is, perhaps, king.

long term though, gold can only go up. paper dollars are getting more and more useless. The physical commodity is better than the electronically traded SPDR GLD tho.
  • Post #30
  • Sep 20, 2011 6:57am Sep 20, 2011 6:57am
  •  Guest
  • | IP XX.XXX.144.112
Gold at $1500 seems a bit unjustified for me, but I would say touching:
$1750 - is highly probable,
$1700 - is probable,
$1600 - is possible,
$1500 - is not impossible, but quite improbable.

It's just by noticing gold reaction on news:

Bad economical news: slightly up or "don't care"
Very bad economical news: up, but not rocketing.
No news: slowly falling.
Better ("hope-creating") economical news: falling (but still far from crashing)

Seems bulls should use their right to get some rest (one week vacation ?) and let bears create a good entry point for long positions before Greek default (which is kept being postponed... for some reason).
  • Post #31
  • Sep 20, 2011 7:28am Sep 20, 2011 7:28am
Quoting jonahky7
hi piptrapper, why are we seeing eurusd rising so high today?
It is not rising high. It is now in a range between 1.3720 (resistance) and long term channel support currently pegged at around the 1.36 handle.
Until more bad or good news comes out of europe, expect it to stay in this range. If the equity indexes rally, they will pup pressure on the USD thereby proping up the euro. Likewise if they fall, they will prop up the USD thereby causing the euro to fall.
  • Post #32
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:15am Sep 20, 2011 8:15am
thanks piptrader. being quite new to forex, i noticed that "news forecast" from forexfactory and forexcrunch are many a time quite the opposite of reality. each time they forecast a number, the expected results should be according to the forecast, in theory, but it just simply goes the other way. How do I interpret such forecasts and results.
  • Post #33
  • Sep 20, 2011 8:52am Sep 20, 2011 8:52am
Quoting jonahky7
thanks piptrader. being quite new to forex, i noticed that "news forecast" from forexfactory and forexcrunch are many a time quite the opposite of reality. each time they forecast a number, the expected results should be according to the forecast, in theory, but it just simply goes the other way. How do I interpret such forecasts and results.
If forecasts were always right, we would all be rich. Experience will teach you what to take notice of and what to ignore.
  • Post #34
  • Sep 20, 2011 11:25am Sep 20, 2011 11:25am
agree, experience is what i'm building on at the moment
  • Post #35
  • Oct 29, 2011 1:42pm Oct 29, 2011 1:42pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.216.225
Wow, this is in every rsepcet what I needed to know.
  • Post #36
  • Oct 29, 2011 5:43pm Oct 29, 2011 5:43pm
  •  Guest
  • | IP XXX.XXX.1.59
Me and this article, siittng in a tree, L-E-A-R-N-I-N-G!
  • Story Stats
  • Posted: Sep 19, 2011 6:22pm
  • Submitted by:
     Newsstand
    Category: High Impact Breaking News
    Comments: 36  /  Views: 4,010