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  • Why the Dollar May Make Comeback

    From smartmoney.com

    The case against the dollar is strong and widely held. Last week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly report of currency positions showed that almost all speculators were short the dollar and long the yen, euro, pound, Swiss franc and other currencies. Since the start of the year, the euro has strengthened to $1.40 from $1.30. The yen has basically been flat, but it took an extraordinary intervention by the G7 to tamp down the yen after it raced to record levels against the dollar following the Japanese earthquake. Net bets in favor of the yen rose 15% last week, according to the CFTC data, to $5.3 ... (full story)

Simple and logical arguments.

dollar fall and all the commodities (gold, oil and even food) rise are due to only one thing - QE

1 ounce of extra gold cannot be made out of 1 ounce of gold.

Once the QE is off the table (and interest rates are hinted to rise), all of the above needs to be priced back were they came from.

The data is supporting that but Bernanke isn't. And Bernanke is way more important. Whether he has some delicate reason why he doesn't want to raise the rates (read: raise the debt interest periodical payout), i don't know
The answers lie in the charts
Pity margin calls aren't based on fundamentals. If you would have shorted way back when the gurus called a top, every one would be bankrupt.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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  • Posted: Mar 30, 2011 10:25am
  • Submitted by:
     shahroodi
    Category: Fundamental Analysis
    Comments: 3  /  Views: 3,620