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  • US Retail Sales Drop Broadly in Month Marked by Fires, Storms

    From bloomberg.com

    US retail sales fell in January by more than forecast in a month marked by severe winter weather and deadly wildfires. The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, decreased 0.9% after an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December, Commerce Department data showed Friday. Excluding autos, sales dropped 0.4%. Treasury yields dropped while stocks and the dollar remained lower after the release. Nine of the report’s 13 categories posted decreases, most notably motor vehicles, sporting goods and furniture stores. The data encompassed a period marked by devastating wildfires in Los Angeles — the ... (full story)

Added at 8:43am

  • January US Retail Sales Tumble Most In Almost 2 Years

    From zerohedge.com

    After four months of strong gains, US retail sales were expected to decline in January data released this morning (-0.2% MoM exp) with the omniscient BofA analysts forecasting an even bigger 0.8% MoM decline. Once again, BofA nailed it - as retail sales (nominal, remember) plunged 0.9% MoM in January (after December's +0.4% MoM was revised up to +0.7% MoM). That is the biggest MoM drop since March 2023 (in a month marked by severe winter weather and deadly wildfires). Just for a sense of just how much this data is 'adjusted', the non-seasonally-adjusted retail sales for January actually crashed 16.5% MoM (post Xmas ... (full story)

  • #1
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  • Feb 14, 2025 8:48am Feb 14, 2025 8:48am
  •  Trader#A35F
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Rate cuts are coming
  • #2
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  • Feb 14, 2025 8:49am Feb 14, 2025 8:49am
TRUMP FIRST SUCESS!
  • #3
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  • Feb 14, 2025 8:51am Feb 14, 2025 8:51am
Rate cuts are coming!!!
  • #4
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  • Feb 14, 2025 8:57am Feb 14, 2025 8:57am
Quoting Vijen
Rate cuts are coming!!!
That is like saying "it is going to rain".....eventually it will...but you make money if you know WHEN it will.

The FED has been crystal clear: "The economy is in a good place. There is no need to rush cuts. We will wait until the impact of tariffs is known. We don't look at just one month of data."

There will NOT be a rate cut in March (with the present dataset). Likely not until July at the earliest. However, if tariffs are implemented before then and look to drive inflation up or even sideways, you likely see that July date push out too.
  • #5
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  • Feb 14, 2025 8:58am Feb 14, 2025 8:58am
The level of devastation left behind from the corrupt DEI Biden administration is immeasurable.

The people have spoken. We said no to Marxism

Trump and his team will fix this mess.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #6
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  • Feb 14, 2025 8:58am Feb 14, 2025 8:58am
Quoting BillyIdol
TRUMP FIRST SUCESS!
What, the fires or the storms? Because it cannot possibly be the retail print.
Oh wait, were you being ironic?
  • #7
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:00am Feb 14, 2025 9:00am
Quoting BillyIdol
TRUMP FIRST SUCESS!
Sorry Billy, but Biden still gets to take the blame here (these are January stats, so he had 2/3 of the month)....and of COURSE this had nothing to do with people buying a lot in December or anything, right??? (Or fires in CA?)

Now, if the number had been much BETTER than expected, you can believe the next tweet would be Trump saying how his inauguration was the cause of increased January sales "best sales, maybe ever, I don't know, but very strong. We are going to make this very, very strong."
  • #8
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:01am Feb 14, 2025 9:01am
Quoting mkjenna
{quote} What, the fires or the storms? Because it cannot possibly be the retail print. Oh wait, were you being ironic?
Billy no-likey Trump (read all comments through that lense)
  • #9
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:16am Feb 14, 2025 9:16am
This ghost guy is becoming very cynical in his old age

Haven’t you noticed it’s the same with our wives . The moment the kids do anything wrong , they’re “ just like their dad “ . Of course, when the kid is good and people are singing their praises , it’s the mams DNA.
  • #10
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:23am Feb 14, 2025 9:23am
Quoting ffghost
{quote} Sorry Billy, but Biden still gets to take the blame here (these are January stats, so he had 2/3 of the month)....and of COURSE this had nothing to do with people buying a lot in December or anything, right??? (Or fires in CA?) Now, if the number had been much BETTER than expected, you can believe the next tweet would be Trump saying how his inauguration was the cause of increased January sales "best sales, maybe ever, I don't know, but very strong. We are going to make this very, very strong."
Of course you completely forgot Biden has like 3 years of green news all the time. But MEGA always forget
  • #11
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:27am Feb 14, 2025 9:27am
Looking at his team, who is the real DEI hire?
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  • #12
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  • Edited 1:16pm Feb 14, 2025 9:27am | Edited 1:16pm
Quoting BillyIdol
{quote} Of course you completely forgot Biden has like 3 years of green news all the time. But MEGA always forget
He’s probably one of the most impartial contributors here , similar to myself . He comments on the merits of the situation, trying to stay non partisan in a bipartisan world is hard work.
  • #13
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:32am Feb 14, 2025 9:32am
  •  Trader#4ED2
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
WOlfram must be the only person who watches CNN.. MSDNC ... and the view on a daily basis.
  • #14
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:38am Feb 14, 2025 9:38am
Quoting ffghost
{quote} That is like saying "it is going to rain".....eventually it will...but you make money if you know WHEN it will. The FED has been crystal clear: "The economy is in a good place. There is no need to rush cuts. We will wait until the impact of tariffs is known. We don't look at just one month of data." There will NOT be a rate cut in March (with the present dataset). Likely not until July at the earliest. However, if tariffs are implemented before then and look to drive inflation up or even sideways, you likely see that...
It is FED as usual speech but it moves as a data-dependent. Besides Powel says in testimony to the Senator, he will adjust FED rate with Tariff's inflation.
  • #15
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:49am Feb 14, 2025 9:49am
Quoting Guest
WOlfram must be the only person who watches CNN.. MSDNC ... and the view on a daily basis.
Don't be so primitive, guest trumptard.
His team consists from incompetent retards, that's aligns with maga worldview. Or anything wrong on the pics (even if it's memes)?
  • #16
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:49am Feb 14, 2025 9:49am
Quoting Vancarbon
This ghost guy is becoming very cynical in his old age Haven’t you noticed it’s the same with our wives . The moment the kids do anything wrong , they’re “ just like their dad “ . Of course, when the kid is good and people are singing their praises , it’s the mams DNA.
Haha. True statement: it's always daddy's fault!

Soon I'll be start the kids stories about how we had to walk to school up hill, both ways, in the snow....with no shoes....and the imprint of a wooden spoon on our butts to remind us of something, but by the 4th crack we forgot the reason for the first. (and only mean about 1/2 of it) :-)
  • #17
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:54am Feb 14, 2025 9:54am
Quoting BillyIdol
{quote} Of course you completely forgot Biden has like 3 years of green news all the time. But MEGA always forget
No one forgets Billy. I just think everyone should get their "praise" alongside condemnation. Trump has caused a LOT of market insanity recently. Terrible for day-to-day (or, rather, minute-to-minute) traders who have no sense of security holding positions. For longer term traders, you could have gone to sleep for the past month and be thinking the market hasn't done much. So, that SHOULD mean the nimble among us can make a lot of $$ in this environment.

....Now, long term, it remains to be seen how any of Trump's policies will impact the economy/world....so I reserve judgement about the validity of the results until the results are in.

I was joking (I'm sure you know) about how blame/praise is given during transition periods (of which January was one). Vancarbon hit the nail on the head: anything bad = "last guy", anythig good = "new guy". He who holds the mic has the latest say....as always.

What I don't believe is that expressing constant comments of hate/disgust/anger in any way, shape, or form leads to positive trading outcomes.

What I do believe in (this is for you VC), are overly complex and lengthy responses to posts :-P
  • #18
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  • Feb 14, 2025 9:54am Feb 14, 2025 9:54am
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} He’s probably one of the most impartial contributors here , similar to myself . He comments on the merits of the situation, trying to stay non partisan in a bipartisan world is hard work.
Awe, thanks VC. Blessings to you and solid returns in 2025.........despite the fact that we may often be on the opposite side of the trade
  • #19
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  • Feb 14, 2025 10:03am Feb 14, 2025 10:03am
Quoting ffghost
{quote} ...
What I do believe in (this is for you VC), are overly complex and lengthy responses to posts :-P


I’ll second that , goes without saying. Undoubtedly the longest winded poster by a country mile

I’m sending a copy of the Oxford “ concise “ dictionary over to you asap, there’s a clue in the title.
  • #20
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  • Feb 14, 2025 10:08am Feb 14, 2025 10:08am
Revised December data (+0.7%) softened the blow, but trend suggests weaker momentum entering 2025. Autos, electronics, and apparel struggled, while food services and gas stations saw gains.

Notables:

Food Services & Drinking Places: +0.9% - Resilient consumer spending on dining out, despite overall retail weakness.

Gasoline Stations: +1.2% - Likely driven by higher fuel prices rather than demand.

Building Material & Garden Equipment Stores: +0.7% - Possibly linked to seasonal home improvement projects.


Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers: -2.8% - Sharp drop after strong prior months, indicating softening demand or seasonal adjustments.

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instruments, & Book Stores: -4.6% - Post-holiday spending pullback.

Electronics & Appliance Stores: -1.3% - Potential consumer weakness or declining demand for big-ticket items.

Clothing & Accessories Stores: -1.2% - Drop likely due to seasonal factors and reduced discretionary spending.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #21
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  • Feb 14, 2025 10:24am Feb 14, 2025 10:24am
Quoting W0lfram
Looking at his team, who is the real DEI hire? {image} {image}

What I find most humorous about this post is that there is zero mention of the job for which they will be hired.

Would a well-qualified Republican or an incredibly under-qualified Democrat be the best press secretary for a Democratic president? Now, ask yourself the same for a Republican president. If the person having to speak with the press multiple times daily is opposed to the majority of party issues, I'm sure there'd be a little conflict of interest there.

While I HIGHLY doubt the private opinion of our current president is entirely consistent with what he shares in public, nearly all of the times I have heard him mention DEI, it has been in relation to having "qualified" people or "the best" people for the job. With THAT language, and philosophy, I agree. There is ZERO reason to exclude someone based on anything other their ability to do the job. But, I know my views differ from a lot in this country/world who DO believe certain people are "beneath" them...or "less than" they are....because of sex/race/creed.

If you are the best trader, you should get the job, whomever you are.

All that said, I do believe in giving people a chance to shine (and have routinely done in my past businesses as well).....so take that for what it's worth.

.....then again, as VC said, maybe I am just getting cynical in my old age.....
  • #22
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  • Feb 14, 2025 10:30am Feb 14, 2025 10:30am
  •  Trader#2EAC
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting Expo33
The level of devastation left behind from the corrupt DEI Biden administration is immeasurable. The people have spoken. We said no to Marxism Trump and his team will fix this mess.
Trumps previous term left a bigger mess that what is happening now, as a trader the last 4 years have been stellar, I welcome the volatility that trump brings with all his flip flopping but I really doubt things improve over the next 4 years. Numbers don't lie
  • #23
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  • Feb 14, 2025 10:34am Feb 14, 2025 10:34am
Quoting ffghost
{quote} What I find most humorous about this post is that there is zero mention of the job for which they will be hired. Would a well-qualified Republican or an incredibly under-qualified Democrat be the best press secretary for a Democratic president? Now, ask yourself the same for a Republican president. If the person having to speak with the press multiple times daily is opposed to the majority of party issues, I'm sure there'd be a little conflict of interest there. While I HIGHLY doubt the private opinion of our current president is...
Trump hires loyal ones, rather than qualified people
  • #24
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  • Feb 14, 2025 10:38am Feb 14, 2025 10:38am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Trump hires loyal ones, rather than qualified people
I won't dispute credentials that I would personally find more valuable, but I suspect on his, and many people's lists, loyalty (at least for certain roles), IS one of the most important criteria.

P.S. I am defending a position, not a person :-P


In other news: How about those retail sales numbers....am I right????
  • #25
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  • Feb 14, 2025 10:47am Feb 14, 2025 10:47am
  •  Trader#4ED2
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Don't be so primitive, guest trumptard. His team consists from incompetent retards, that's aligns with maga worldview. Or anything wrong on the pics (even if it's memes)?
You must be upset there are no obese men pretending to be a woman, or no gay men pretending to breast feed a baby in this cabinet, or no cross dressers that steal luggage at airports in this administration.
  • #26
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  • Feb 14, 2025 10:55am Feb 14, 2025 10:55am
Quoting teprewitt23
it is easy to perceive when members go "on tilt" here i personally do not understand the extreme political bias either way it seems to cloud good judgement. MK thriving with the expansion of the internet. {image}
It's funny. I have no social media accounts (and try to stay away from news as much as possible, watching only on here to see when big events occur/are supposed to occur that could affect my positions), but I suspect the world is just getting pushed further and further into their 'camps' by self-fulfilling algorithmic biases.

It's probably a "tin foil hat" mentality, but makes perfect sense through the lens of economics. Objective: Acquire attention. People are more likely to view content with which they agree. The algo's know people's viewing preferences and therefore push that content to the person at a much higher rate (if not exclusive) than the opposing viewpoint. People get stuck in a feedback loop....and I really don't know how they (we) can get out.

One can only hope a swing back toward the center and practicality occurs in our zeitgeist....otherwise it will be more of extreme right >> extreme left >> extreme right >> .........
  • #27
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  • Feb 14, 2025 11:02am Feb 14, 2025 11:02am
Quoting Guest
{quote} You must be upset there are no obese men pretending to be a woman, or no gay men pretending to breast feed a baby in this cabinet, or no cross dressers that steal luggage at airports in this administration.
very very upset
  • #28
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  • Feb 14, 2025 11:03am Feb 14, 2025 11:03am
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Break free from this mainstream...activate some brain cells...
  • #29
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  • Feb 14, 2025 11:09am Feb 14, 2025 11:09am
When a trumpard sees 'offensive' meme against his master, he begins to spit out every word he heard from and categories imposed on him by propaganda
  • #30
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  • Feb 14, 2025 11:43am Feb 14, 2025 11:43am
  •  Trader#2EAC
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting ffghost
{quote} I won't dispute credentials that I would personally find more valuable, but I suspect on his, and many people's lists, loyalty (at least for certain roles), IS one of the most important criteria. P.S. I am defending a position, not a person :-P In other news: How about those retail sales numbers....am I right????
Loyalty to whom though. Someone in a position of power needs to be loyal to his post. To do what his job description specifies. Being loyal to your boss but doing the wrong thing is a recipe for disaster. The world would be a better place if everyone just dd their jobs well.
  • #31
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  • Edited 12:31pm Feb 14, 2025 12:18pm | Edited 12:31pm
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This is not a meme
  • #32
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  • Feb 14, 2025 12:31pm Feb 14, 2025 12:31pm
Don't be too hard on Billy the Bozo. He's just another Gen ME kid screaming like a toddler. Sadly his intellectual impotence precludes him from living in reality.
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I always ask libtards 4 questions

Who do you hate most: God, Trump, your country, or yourself?

Then I stand back and wait for their answer

And this is usually the result
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #33
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  • Feb 14, 2025 1:02pm Feb 14, 2025 1:02pm
Very loyal and most over qualified person....
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  • #34
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  • Feb 14, 2025 1:15pm Feb 14, 2025 1:15pm
Quoting Expo33
Don't be too hard on Billy the Bozo. He's just another Gen ME kid screaming like a toddler. Sadly his intellectual impotence precludes him from living in reality. {image} I always ask libtards 4 questions Who do you hate most: God, Trump, your country, or yourself? Then I stand back and wait for their answer And this is usually the result {image}
Who do you hate most: God, Trump, your country, or yourself?
  • #35
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  • Feb 14, 2025 1:35pm Feb 14, 2025 1:35pm
Quoting ffghost
{quote} I won't dispute credentials that I would personally find more valuable, but I suspect on his, and many people's lists, loyalty (at least for certain roles), IS one of the most important criteria. P.S. I am defending a position, not a person :-P In other news: How about those retail sales numbers....am I right????
Ok.
Besides being muppets, they have to run their agencies, I suppose?

Do the US even have aptitude tests or random John/Jane Doe can be voted and promoted? It doesn't bother me, just funny to watch

In Germany there are also some random people occupy high positions in government
  • #36
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  • Feb 14, 2025 1:59pm Feb 14, 2025 1:59pm
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Ok. Besides being muppets, they have to run their agencies, I suppose? Do the US even have aptitude tests or random John/Jane Doe can be voted and promoted? It doesn't bother me, just funny to watch In Germany there are also some random people occupy high positions in government
If you’re applying that logic how the heck was Biden even allowed to be nominated for a second term !!!!

To a degree, loyalty will always play a part in any selection process - loyalty and trust- two qualities sadly lacking these days. Yes, absolutely 100% -re: the calibre of the individual should take precedence , therefore it’s a balance between the two . Pointless having a high calibre candidate if you can’t trust their character or their loyalty .

That’s all in a perfect world, a utopian world. Society and politics in general is about social networking- you scratch my back and assisting friends colleagues climb the social ladder.

All sad but true.
  • #37
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  • Feb 14, 2025 2:18pm Feb 14, 2025 2:18pm
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} If you’re applying that logic how the heck was Biden even allowed to be nominated for a second term !!!! To a degree, loyalty will always play a part in any selection process - loyalty and trust- two qualities sadly lacking these days. Yes, absolutely 100% -re: the calibre of the individual should take precedence , therefore it’s a balance between the two . Pointless having a high calibre candidate if you can’t trust their character or their loyalty . That’s all in a perfect world, a utopian world. Society and politics in general is about...
Quote
If you’re applying that logic how the heck was Biden even allowed to be nominated for a second term !!!!
I guess, the same way as Trump?
  • #38
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  • Feb 14, 2025 3:04pm Feb 14, 2025 3:04pm
The US is going bankrupt. Interest alone on the debt is 1 trillion a year. While both parties contributed to the debt spiral the Trump tax cuts are crippling the country. Trump is scrambling to somehow keep the tax cuts which they were supposed to expire this year and at the same time not driving the car of the cliff.
He thinks that by imposing tariffs is going to balance the budget but unfortunately that's going to lead to job cuts do to higher cost on everyone. They will have no other choice but to come after social programs, military, medicaid, medicare and so on. Take all of this with the ideological civil war going on and you got yourself a time bomb.
There will be a very unhappy population very soon.
This is what happens when you put the man who filles for bankruptcy every 5 minutes in charge of the country.
I will say one more thing before I'm out of this mother fucker for good. If you really want to know what Trump is doing always try to take the opposite of what he is selling. You will have a clearer picture.
  • #39
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  • Feb 14, 2025 3:12pm Feb 14, 2025 3:12pm
  •  Trader#2EAC
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting Nick.
The US is going bankrupt. Interest alone on the debt is 1 trillion a year. While both parties contributed to the debt spiral the Trump tax cuts are crippling the country. Trump is scrambling to somehow keep the tax cuts which they were supposed to expire this year and at the same time not driving the car of the cliff. He thinks that by imposing tariffs is going to balance the budget but unfortunately that's going to lead to job cuts do to higher cost on everyone. They will have no other choice but to come after social programs, military, medicaid,...
Judging by social media and this chatroom the US is full of unhappy peopl on both sides of the fence
  • #40
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  • Feb 14, 2025 4:26pm Feb 14, 2025 4:26pm
Quoting Guest
{quote} Judging by social media and this chatroom the US is full of unhappy peopl on both sides of the fence
In this chatroom, the most unhappy are non Americans...
  • #41
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  • Feb 14, 2025 4:28pm Feb 14, 2025 4:28pm
  •  Trader#2EAC
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Quoting chemosi
{quote} In this chatroom, the most unhappy are non Americans...
coulda fooled me
  • #42
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  • Feb 15, 2025 7:58am Feb 15, 2025 7:58am
Some people are blaming Biden for DEI.
It has been going on for a long time and supported by both parties.
Trump just thinks DEI is taking privilege away from the white people and therefore demonizing it.

Where did DEI come from?
In September 1965, President Lyndon Johnson issued Executive Order 11246 which required government employers to "hire without regard to race, religion and national origin" and "take affirmative action to ensure that applicants are employed and that employees are treated during employment, without regard to their race...
  • #43
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  • Feb 15, 2025 8:06am Feb 15, 2025 8:06am
Quoting chemosi
{image} Break free from this mainstream...activate some brain cells...
That mostly pretrains to people who are privileged to receive an education.
It is also old fashioned.
Nowadays AI is doing most of the work and the person being educated doesn't even see the book with IDIOT written in it to learn from it and become one.
  • #44
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  • Feb 15, 2025 8:13am Feb 15, 2025 8:13am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Who do you hate most: God, Trump, your country, or yourself?
Good one.
The second character in that list doesn't even belong in that sentence. It's a trick to elevate him to the level of the other choices.
It is also meant to convey that you are a hater and hate all or some good things and your hating Trump is on the same level as hating god.
If someone falls for it and actually responds; Trump, it is still a victory for the person asking it cause they made you utter his name so you have to go wash your mouth now that it has been dirtied by his name.
Luckily most anyone that talks about him refers to him as 'The Idiot' and we all know who they are talking about.
  • #45
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  • Feb 17, 2025 4:19am Feb 17, 2025 4:19am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Don't be so primitive, guest trumptard. His team consists from incompetent retards, that's aligns with maga worldview. Or anything wrong on the pics (even if it's memes)?
Time will tell, but for now you have no data to argue about and remember, those who resort to insults without reason are usually far from the truth.
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