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  • ECB's Villeroy: We're on track with victory over inflation

Added at 10:45am

Added at 10:45am

Added at 10:45am

  • #1
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  • Jan 31, 2025 11:25am Jan 31, 2025 11:25am
"Victory over inflation" Oh, the hubris is strong in this one
  • #2
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  • Jan 31, 2025 11:28am Jan 31, 2025 11:28am
Quoting Macrofx1
No, you are not even close, far away.
You got it completely wrong. Inflation is dead. The trend is clear. If you say otherwise you are not reading the charts but what you would like. Its expected to tick up a bit beginning of the year. ECB did what it takes to kill the inflation = kill the economy. Now the question is how to pick up the economy without inflationary pressure.
  • #3
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  • Jan 31, 2025 11:50am Jan 31, 2025 11:50am
Quoting Macrofx1
{quote} I do not look at the charts. I look at fundamental data, and make my decision based on that, buy or sell. Charts are there to time the trade, and know where to enter and exit. Look at the data, they don't want to destroy economy they just do not have solution for now how to deal with it. That is why we will see EURO to 1.00 parity. US dollar remains bullish, so does US stock market. Keep up with the fundamentals, once you learn fundamentals, you will never look at the market the same way as you use to, and it will open the doors for very...
I didnt mention your trading, your profit or loss. I am sure you are a good trader. There are many ways to make a living in the markets. Some believe in macro, others in Elliott and others in double tops. And I dont care how people do it. There are plenty of money to make for all of us.
  • #4
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  • Jan 31, 2025 12:01pm Jan 31, 2025 12:01pm
Quoting Banditten
{quote} You got it completely wrong. Inflation is dead.
Yeah, let's circle back to this in say 8-9 months.
In any case, my comment was to Villeroy's boasting, not to the status quo of inflation data.
  • #5
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  • Jan 31, 2025 12:48pm Jan 31, 2025 12:48pm
Quoting Macrofx1
{quote} There is only one way to make it in the markets, is understanding and following data like inflation, interest rates, GDP, Manufacturing, Services and couple more.
This statement is untrue. There is no one way to do anything in life, markets included. I can trade without paying any attention to fundamentals and still make loads of money. I just withdrew $3k 2 hours ago from a $300 account (leaving a balance of over $1k) traded within a few days short of 2 months. I can repeat it over and over and over.

Do I pay attention to fundamentals, yes I do. But not to use it to trade most of the time. 10 mins is too much to glance at a chart and know where price is going in the short term. And man, I get it right most of the time.
  • #6
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  • Jan 31, 2025 1:08pm Jan 31, 2025 1:08pm
If fundamentals are so important why is the Dax 35% up when the German economy entered recession ?

Go fig !
  • #7
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  • Jan 31, 2025 1:21pm Jan 31, 2025 1:21pm
Quoting Vancarbon
If fundamentals are so important why is the Dax 35% up when the German economy entered recession ? Go fig !
The big companies that make up the DAX depend more on world markets, notably the United States and China, than on Germany. They only generate 20% of their sales in their domestic market, Deutsche Bank estimates. The bulk of their revenues come from the rest of the euro zone (26%), the United States (24%) and China (18%).

Now you know why DAX is up and understand that fundamental data is what you need to apply into trading.
FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #8
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  • Jan 31, 2025 1:26pm Jan 31, 2025 1:26pm
Quoting Macrofx1
{quote} The big companies that make up the DAX depend more on world markets, notably the United States and China, than on Germany. They only generate 20% of their sales in their domestic market, Deutsche Bank estimates. The bulk of their revenues come from the rest of the euro zone (26%), the United States (24%) and China (18%). Now you know why DAX is up and understand that fundamental data is what you need to apply into trading.
Yes , I knew Sherlock . Tell me something new .
  • #9
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  • Jan 31, 2025 2:58pm Jan 31, 2025 2:58pm
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Yes , I knew Sherlock . Tell me something new .
You didn't know, but now you do, you learned something new today.
FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #10
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  • Jan 31, 2025 3:17pm Jan 31, 2025 3:17pm
lol at you
  • #11
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  • Jan 31, 2025 4:03pm Jan 31, 2025 4:03pm
Quoting Vancarbon
lol at you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You are either on the left side of that picture with the winners, or right side on the picture with the losers. There is no neutral.
FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #12
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  • Jan 31, 2025 6:15pm Jan 31, 2025 6:15pm
Quoting Macrofx1
{quote} {image} You are either on the left side of that picture with the winners, or right side on the picture with the losers. There is no neutral.
lol at you . You show me a diagram and try to correlate it to your “ fundamental “ analysis is the driving factor in the trading environment .

Here’s something that you might learn Macro man . Ii’s all about leverage , nothing more and nothing less . Fundamentals play out longer term but the market is always in a state of flux based on leverage. Mean reversions are due to fundamentals , hence the saying “ The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent “ .

Glad to be of assistance
  • #13
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  • Jan 31, 2025 7:09pm Jan 31, 2025 7:09pm
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} lol at you . You show me a diagram and try to correlate it to your “ fundamental “ analysis is the driving factor in the trading environment . Here’s something that you might learn Macro man . Ii’s all about leverage , nothing more and nothing less . Fundamentals play out longer term but the market is always in a state of flux based on leverage. Mean reversions are due to fundamentals , hence the saying “ The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent “ . Glad to be of assistance
That is good theory.

It is a diagram that every professional traders understand. It is not "mine" fundamental analysis, it is one and only "fundamental analysis", which is a major driving factor in trading. Retail traders are the last on the list, and institutional traders, bank traders do not care about retail traders, they have no connections to them, they trade against each other. Here is another thing you need to know, volatility is your best friend or your enemy. FOREX has the lowest volatility compare to stock market, which has the highest volatility, typically mid and large cap stocks have the highest returns. I will attach example of volatility summary.

Here is a lesson:

The concept of mean reversion in finance is considered to be largely driven by fundamentals, as it suggests that asset prices tend to eventually revert back to their long-term average, which is often tied to the underlying intrinsic value or fundamentals of the asset, such as earnings, dividends, and economic conditions; when prices deviate too far from these fundamentals, market forces tend to correct them, causing a reversion to the mean.

Key points about mean reversion and fundamentals:

Market overreactions:
When news or events cause a significant price swing, the market may be overreacting, pushing prices away from their intrinsic value, creating an opportunity for mean reversion to occur as prices eventually adjust back towards fundamentals.

Equilibrium seeking:
Financial markets naturally seek equilibrium, which means that when prices deviate too far from their "fair" value based on fundamentals, market participants will tend to buy undervalued assets and sell overvalued ones, driving prices back towards the mean.

Identifying opportunities:
By analyzing fundamental data, traders can identify potential mean reversion opportunities when asset prices are significantly above or below their estimated intrinsic value.

Note: Not all currencies have intrinsic value.

Commodity money have value:
Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar are often known as "commodity currencies" due to their sensitivity to a change in commodity prices. Commodity exports typically make up a large part of these countries' economies. Commodity money has intrinsic value but risks large price fluctuations based on changing commodity prices. If silver coins are used, for instance, a large discovery of silver may cause the value of the silver currency to plunge, resulting in inflation.


Everything starts with fundamental data. All price movements are due to macro data. Make sure to write this down somewhere, and keep reading until you understand it.
You learned another new lesson today. We will be back here on Monday to see what is going on with macro data, and than we will jump on the charts to time our trades.

Have a great weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #14
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  • Jan 31, 2025 7:22pm Jan 31, 2025 7:22pm
No , I haven’t really learnt anything , well maybe one thing..

You’re good at cut and pasting and stating the obvious

After 30 years of trading I thought you were going to teach me something new . Instead you post a link about mean reversions based on fundamentals. which is literally what I said in my previous post .

My advice is - read what I said. Absorb it , and utilise it . If you’re trading based on fundamentals in this market you’ll be wiped out.

Good luck
  • #15
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  • Jan 31, 2025 7:37pm Jan 31, 2025 7:37pm
Quoting Vancarbon
No , I haven’t really learnt anything , well maybe one thing.. You’re good at cut and pasting and stating the obvious After 30 years of trading I thought you were going to teach me something new . Instead you post a link about mean reversions based on fundamentals. which is literally what I said in my previous post . My advice is - read what I said. Absorb it , and utilise it . If you’re trading based on fundamentals in this market you’ll be wiped out. Good luck
It was in my notes for a long time. I understand that you have not learned anything, it will take you a while. It is not something you learn overnight. I never said that I was trading for the past 30 years, I think you have me mixed up with someone else. Possibly you are having similar conversations with many other people here and you got mixed up. If you are trading based on charts and patterns, here is a reality you will never make money and you will always lose money and give it to other market participants. If you are following data, you would be in long term profit now, depends on your trading capital. Look at for example certain pairs vs USD for the past 5 months bearish, that is fundamental analysis skill, not reading chart patterns and lagging indicators. Look at AUDUSD, you think that big bearish move is based on some technical analysis, or macro data fundamental? I am trying to see all your posts, and I do not see any fundamental and technical analysis share, all I see is you commenting things on news posts? Share some of analysis about any equity let us know what is bearish or bullish and why?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_2025-01-31_19-38-32.png Size: 41 KB
FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #16
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  • Edited 3:40am Feb 1, 2025 12:11am | Edited 3:40am
Look,enough of this nonsense .

It’s apparent you’re not a native English speaker from your comprehension of my post . I’ll spell it out .

I’ve been trading 30 years , I trade equities

The phrase “ The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent “ -is (drumroll please ) quite literally telling you that the market is acting irrationally ie. Is trading against the fundamentals based purely on leverage and speculation . They’re not called speculators for nothing .

I genuinely hope you’ve learnt something if you want longevity in this game .

Summary

Fundamentals matter for Investors on a macro level

Leverage plays on a trading level strategy

Good luck
  • #17
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  • Feb 1, 2025 12:30am Feb 1, 2025 12:30am
Quoting Vancarbon
Look enough of this nonsense . It’s apparent you’re not a native English speaker from your comprehension of my post . I’ll spell it out . I’ve been trading 30 years . The phrase “ The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent “ -is (drumroll please ) quite literally telling you that the market is acting irrationally ie. Is trading against the fundamentals based purely on leverage and speculation . They’re not called speculators for nothing . I genuinely hope you’ve learnt something if you want longevity in this game . Summary Fundamentals...
If you've been trading for 30 years, like you do, time to give up and pick another career. I do not need luck, I am doing very good at my job and career. You still have not shared anything useful at all, no analysis, you are just flooding the threads with your opinions.
FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
  • #18
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  • Edited 1:21am Feb 1, 2025 12:57am | Edited 1:21am
I’m dealing with an ego , it’s obvious .
You don’t like to be wrong and need to be seen as right .

Ok , you’re correct.

Squeezing Alpha against your fundamental trading lol

I’ll let someone else explain

i await your reply as you need to have the last word . I’ll massage your ego and give you a thumbs up .
  • #19
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  • Feb 1, 2025 1:03am Feb 1, 2025 1:03am
Quoting Vancarbon
I’m dealing with an ego , it’s obvious . You don’t like to be wrong and need to be seen as right . Ok , you’re correct. Squeezing Alpha against your fundamental trading lol I’ll let someone else explain
We are just talking on a forexfactory thread. But I can see that you are offended. Go to sleep, you will feel better tomorrow.
FED is a 24/7 machine that never runs out of the money
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