GBPUSD Hits Fresh Lows As UK Borrowing Costs Soar

U.S.-based employers announced 38,792 cuts in December, a 33% decrease from the 57,727 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 11% from the 34,817 cuts announced in the last ...

Good morning, everyone, and Happy New Year! My thanks to the leadership of the New Jersey Chapter for the invitation to start not just my day, but also my year with you. And I want to give a special thanks to my fellow South Jerseyan Rick Mroz for that warm introduction. I must pause to recognize that as we are gathered here our nation is preparing to bid farewell to former President Jimmy Carter. In fact, at this time, President Carter is on his final trip from the Capitol to Washington National Cathedral for his funeral. His life was one dedicated to service — to public service but even more so to serving people. What a tremendous legacy. It is a distinct pleasure to be with you all this morning to give you my insights and thoughts on current economic conditions and, as best I can, where I think we may be heading. But even more, I am looking forward to having a conversation with you. So, I intend to keep my remarks relatively brief so we can get to the fireside chat with Rick and then open the forum to your questions. post: PHILLY FED'S HARKER/NACD: 'STILL SEE US ON A DOWNWARD POLICY RATE PATH' IN 2025; PACE DATA DEPENDENT #Harker #FederalReserve #economy post: PHILLY FED'S HARKER/NACD: INFLATION STILL HEADING FOR 2%; GDP GROWTH SUSTAINED, LABOR MKT STABLE, CONSUMER SPENDING RESILIENT #Harker #FederalReserve #economy post: PHILLY FED'S HARKER/NACD: INFLATION 'HAS PROVEN TO BE A LITTLE BUMPY;' TAKING LONGER TO GET BACK TO TARGET THAN ANTICIPATED #Harker #FederalReserve #economy

Takeaways: 1. As we begin the new year, “the economy is in a good place overall.” “Inflation is down significantly from its 2022 peak,” and data continue to point to a gradual, if uneven, trajectory back to the Fed’s 2 percent target. This has been accomplished with a labor market that has stayed healthy “as unsustainably hot job-market conditions from two years ago cooled in an orderly way.” 2. By describing the economy as in a good place overall, Collins is not declaring victory – and in fact sees “considerable uncertainty accompanying my baseline outlook.” “While inflation is down significantly, it is still above target; and its decline has been slower and bumpier” than anticipated. Collins described multiple types of uncertainty – including “noisy” measurement of key economic variables, unusual features of the post-pandemic economy, and possible future policy changes and geopolitical developments. post: BOSTON FED'S COLLINS/NAIOP: LESS WORRIED NOW ABOUT JOBS MKT FRAGILITY; BROADLY AGREE WITH S.E.P. OUTLOOK ON TWO 2025 RATE CUTS #Collins #FederalReserve #economy post: BOSTON FED'S COLLINS/NAIOP: RESTRICTIVE POLICY STANCE STILL NEEDED; 2025 INFLATION TO RUN 'SOMEWHAT HIGHER' THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT #Collins #FederalReserve #economy post: BOSTON FED'S COLLINS/NAIOP: 'NO PRESET PATH' FOR POLICY; FED WELL POSITIONED TO ADJUST TO WHATEVER NEEDS TO BE DONE; NEED 'GRADUALISM' #Collins #FederalReserve #economy