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US Core CPI Overstated, Fed To Cut Next Week
US core CPI inflation landed on the screws, was likely weaker than reported if not for ongoing distortions to seasonal adjustment factors, but all summed up reinforces expectations for a quarter point cut from the Fed one week from today. Headline and core CPI inflation was 0.31% m/m in November, matching Scotia’s estimate and the median consensus estimate while higher than the minority of forecasters expected. It has landed at this rate for four months in a row (chart 1). chart Before turning to details we need to consider the role of seasonal adjustment factors. Core CPI was likely lower than stated if not for ... (full story)