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USD/CAD rises above 1.41 as a jumbo Bank of Canada rate cut nears
The headline Canadian jobs gain was a positive surprise today but digging into the details tells a different story. Virtually all the job gains were in government jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% from 6.6% in another jump in population estimates. chart The jobless rate at 6.8% is now the highest since September 2021 and much higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 5.9%. Before the pandemic, the BOC overnight rate was 1.75% compared to 3.75% now and if you go back to 2017 when unemployment was at similar levels, the BOC was at 1.00%. The thinking in the market is that the Bank of Canada is well-behind the ... (full story)