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  • The US Employment Situation -- November 2024

    From bls.gov

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used ... (full story)

Added at 8:34am

  • US economy adds 227K jobs in November as labor market bounces back after storms, strikes

    From uk.news.yahoo.com

    U.S. hiring bounced back in November with employers adding 227,000 jobs as the adverse toll on payrolls from two Southeast hurricanes and worker strikes reversed. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast 215,000 job gains. How do hurricanes affect jobs? Employers added just 12,000 jobs in October as Hurricanes Helene and Milton idled about 70,000 workers, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. About 50,000 of those employees were likely back at work last month, the research firm said. Meanwhile, strikes at Boeing and a smaller ... (full story)

Data has come positive then why eurusd go up?
Quoting kvmystic
Data has come positive then why eurusd go up?
Hopefully stop hunts
Quoting kvmystic
Data has come positive then why eurusd go up?
Because of technicals. EU will go up towards 1.12 and eventually towards 1.20+.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Fake Data! Market will not consider!
Quoting kvmystic
Data has come positive then why eurusd go up?
This is bad data in the current context, because the unemployment rate is rising.
wondering a buy or a sell and the outcome is soy or a bean
chaos is just unknown order
Retail trade LOST jobs. Not a good sign.
It's been analysed. Direction not clear where to go. So it's hold here
Can't make sense of a dollar sell off on this data.

NFP bounce back, along with a higher than expected reading in wages.

Notables:

Health Care: Added 54K jobs, driven by gains in ambulatory health care services (+22K) and home health care (+16K). This sector is less sensitive to economic downturns. It reflects structural trends like an aging population and the growing need for health services.

Leisure and Hospitality: Gained 53K jobs, particularly in food services and drinking places (+29K). This is particularly notable in the face of high inflation, as it suggests households are still willing to spend on dining out and entertainment.

Government Employment: Rose by 33K, with state government jobs contributing +20K. This accounted for nearly 15% of total job growth.


Retail Trade: Lost 28K jobs, led by declines in general merchandise retail (-15K). The sector shed 28K jobs, indicating soft consumer activity in one of the economy's key sectors. This could dampen overall economic growth and reduce confidence in the strength of consumer spending.

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing: Shed 32K jobs, reflecting strike-related adjustments. A decline of 32K jobs in this sector reflects temporary disruptions (e.g., strikes).
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live Return This Year: na
Data dependent Fed now eyes CPI next Wed. Soft landing scenario still has legs, Santa rally can keep going, but the clock is ticking. Everything comes to an end & the Fed (and the economy) is on a collision course with Trump 2.0.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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Quoting EventsTrader
Can't make sense of a dollar sell off on this data. NFP bounce back, along with a higher than expected reading in wages. Notables: Health Care: Added 54K jobs, driven by gains in ambulatory health care services (+22K) and home health care (+16K). This sector is less sensitive to economic downturns. It reflects structural trends like an aging population and the growing need for health services. Leisure and Hospitality: Gained 53K jobs, particularly in food services and...
Thank you.
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The Household Jobs report LOST 355,000 .....Take the Feds release cautiously
Quoting kvmystic
Data has come positive then why eurusd go up?
Bull trap
the Risk of Dual Mandate leans to inflation rather than employment.
go long USD./
so according today nfp data, if next week CPI rise, will fed rate still going to cut? or most likely will hold the rate?
Quoting brewokz
so according today nfp data, if next week CPI rise, will fed rate still going to cut? or most likely will hold the rate?
Good question. For the next FOMC, the dot plot will be in focus. Most think they will pull back on expectations of future easing in 2025. If there's a hot CPI, markets will angst over the Dec cut itself.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Because of technicals. EU will go up towards 1.12 and eventually towards 1.20+.
1.20 ??? Europe is falling apart. They will be lucky to hold parity.
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting Alorente
{quote} 1.20 ??? Europe is falling apart. They will be lucky to hold parity.
Both EU and US are turning into 3rd world shitholes, so its about what place will become less of a shithole.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Both EU and US are turning into 3rd world shitholes, so its about what place will become less of a shithole.
I agree that Europe is a total shithole with no near term hope of turning it around. They never do. The US always comes in to save the day for them.

As far as the US, yes, they were starting to go down the drain, but they corrected direction in the last election. The US is headed for better times again. Give it a couple of years and see...

Nothing new in the recipe... The solution is always, more freedom, less regulations and less confiscation of wealth. Argentina is also in the right path. Europe is too handcuffed with wokeism and bureaucracy. They will never achieve change peacefully. I live in Europe now... I lived in the US for 40 years. I can tell the difference...
Observation is the path to discovery.
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I agree that Europe is a total shithole with no near term hope of turning it around. They never do. The US always comes in to save the day for them. As far as the US, yes, they were starting to go down the drain, but they corrected direction in the last election. The US is headed for better times again. Give it a couple of years and see... Nothing new in the recipe... The solution is always, more freedom, less regulations and less confiscation of wealth. Argentina is also in the right path. Europe is too handcuffed with wokeism and bureaucracy....
I agree with you, that the US might turn around still...but if you look at what kind of people are being produced by the universities, it won't be an easy job...the woke indoctrination goes deep.

I just came back from Asia...and I feel like I travelled back in time 100 years...I see even things I didn't see before. Sad to be back in the EU.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
Quoting EventsTrader
Can't make sense of a dollar sell off on this data. NFP bounce back, along with a higher than expected reading in wages. Notables: Health Care: Added 54K jobs, driven by gains in ambulatory health care services (+22K) and home health care (+16K). This sector is less sensitive to economic downturns. It reflects structural trends like an aging population and the growing need for health services. Leisure and Hospitality: Gained 53K jobs, particularly in food services and...
Because this is not strong enough data for FED not to cut on next meeting.
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Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} I agree with you, that the US might turn around still...but if you look at what kind of people are being produced by the universities, it won't be an easy job...the woke indoctrination goes deep. I just came back from Asia...and I feel like I travelled back in time 100 years...I see even things I didn't see before. Sad to be back in the EU.
Interesting you made comment about traveling back in time. I am in the USA, my brother recently went to Poland and Germany, and went to towns where our distant -distant relatives lived. The buildings, Farms and farm machinery looked about what we used 50-75 yrs ago. They did however, like the food in Poland /Germany better than ours .
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I agree that Europe is a total shithole with no near term hope of turning it around. They never do. The US always comes in to save the day for them. As far as the US, yes, they were starting to go down the drain, but they corrected direction in the last election. The US is headed for better times again. Give it a couple of years and see... Nothing new in the recipe... The solution is always, more freedom, less regulations and less confiscation of wealth. Argentina is also in the right path. Europe is too handcuffed with wokeism and bureaucracy....
I fully agree with you, one of the many reasons the UK voted to leave the EUSSR. If only the Eurocrats had left it as a common market with free trade and no more. Saying which the current Uk Government is cut from the same cloth and hell bent on eradicating proper free speech and wealth generation.
Quoting Bakker
Retail trade LOST jobs. Not a good sign.
Not neccessarily

Online sales are breaking records.

As an example, Macy's closed 1/3 of their stores in the past 10 years. Makes sense. Why would I want to spend gas, drive through traffic, stumble around a mall packed with annoying people just to buy a couple of nice ties when I can click a button at home in my underwear and have someone deliver it to my door for a better price.

Brick and Mortar is a tough game these days. The overhead costs are astronomical in some areas. Also hard to find reliable employees. I work for a logistica company that delivers for Amazon. 95% of the drivers are GenZ and Millennials. 10-15% of the drivers don't show up for work everyday. Throw in the loss due to theft and it's becomes a dead end street.

Those lost retails jobs ultimately morph into truck drivers, delivery drivers, and warehouse workers that facilitate ecommerce trade
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
Don't forget trump terrif imposed I think
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