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EUR/USD: Macro and geopolitics align for a downside breakout
As many had been fearing and our team had been writing this week, today’s softer-than-expected European PMI numbers have proved the catalyst for a downside breakout in the euro. The numbers feed into the narrative that European business confidence is crumbling – or at least sees no way out of stagnation – in an environment of looming trade wars and political gridlock in Europe. Our team have been saying it for a while now, but it looks like European Central Bank rate cuts will have to do the heavy lifting again when it comes to supporting the eurozone economy. Today’s data triggered an 8-10bp drop in ... (full story)