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USD regains bullish stride, EUR/USD and USD/JPY look set to converge
The US dollar regained its bullish stride on Wednesday, snapping the 3-day bearish streak which dared to defy its strong trend. Odds of Fed cuts next year continued to diminish, to the point that even a 25bp cut in December hangs in the balance. Fed fund futures now imply just a 52% chance of further easing in December, down from around 82% one week ago. In line with my own views, a Reuters poll revealed 57 out of 67 economists say the risk of a resurgence of US inflation next year has risen, with the vast majority also saying Trump’s tariffs will significantly impact the US economy. But data this week already ... (full story)