Crude Inventory Rose 500 Thousand Barrels Last Week - EIA

Thank you for the invitation to speak today. It’s a pleasure to be here at the Leeds University Business School. And it’s great to be able to get here after a short trip across the city from the offices of the Bank of England in Yorkshire House, where I’ve been meeting with colleagues who work there. The Bank has had a significant presence in Leeds for 200 years and we have committed to basing at least 500 staff here by 2027. My speech is a sequel to one I gave a year ago.footnote[1] I’m going to start with an assessment of how the UK economy has developed over the last 12 months, comparing the forecasts the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has produced in the Monetary Policy Reports (MPR) over that period. I’ll then set out why I think looking back can help us think about the future, framing my thinking on the outlook with the three cases the MPC have considered to help illustrate the range of possible outcomes on the degree of inflation persistence. I’ve added a sub-title to the speech reflecting the main plotline since this spring, which is that UK inflation has returned to close to our 2% target. I will conclude with my view as an MPC member on how monetary policy can continue to be set to keep inflation close to target. Our assessment is based on B post: BOE'S RAMSDEN: THERE WERE UNCERTAINTIES TO DIMINISH AND EVIDENCE TO POINT MORE CLEARLY TO FURTHER DISINFLATIONARY PRESSURES, THEN I WOULD CONSIDER A LESS GRADUAL APPROACH TO REDUCING BANK RATE. post: BOE'S RAMSDEN: MY STARTING POINT IS TO CONSIDER IT MORE LIKELY THAT PAY AWARDS WILL BE IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE EXPECTED 2-4% RANGE THAN IN THE TOP HALF. post: BOE'S RAMSDEN: THIS WOULD IMPLY A SCENARIO IN WHICH INFLATION STAYS CLOSER TO THE 2% TARGET THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST AND FALLS BELOW 2% MORE MATERIALLY LATER ON.

Thank you, Christa. It is wonderful to be with you here on the University of Virginia's beautiful campus. This is my first visit here as an adult. As a child, I was fortunate enough to be able to attend the commencement ceremony of my aunt and uncle, who received their doctoral degrees from UVA several decades ago. My family and I are grateful to the University of Virginia for all the educational opportunities it has afforded us over the years. I look forward to connecting with many of the exceptional students and faculty during my visit. As a member of the Federal Reserve Board, I always find it a pleasure to hear from people in communities across the country and to share some views of my own. At the Fed, I am committed to pursuing the best policy to achieve the dual-mandate goals given to us by Congress of maximum employment and price stability. Today, I would like to share with you my outlook for the economy, including some international comparisons of productivity and inflation, and offer my views on U.S. monetary policy. Broadly, I view the economy as being in a good position. Inflation has substantially eased from its peak in mid-2022, though core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Unemployment remains historically low, but the labor market is no longer overheated. Economic growth has been robust this year, and I forecast the expansion will continue. Looking ahead, I remain confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2 percent objective, even if the path is occasionally bumpy. Meanwhile, I see employment risks as weighted to the downside, but those risks appear to have diminished somewhat in recent months. Inflation Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, has eased notably from a peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data released last week indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October. Core PCE prices—which exclude the volatile food and energy categories—increased 2.8 percent, down from a peak of 5.6 percent in Feb post: FED'S COOK: IF THE LABOR MARKET AND INFLATION EVOLVE AS EXPECTED, IT WOULD BE APPROPRIATE TO CONTINUE LOWERING THE POLICY RATE TOWARDS NEUTRAL. post: FED'S COOK: CUTS SO FAR WERE A STRONG STEP TOWARD REMOVING POLICY RESTRICTION. post: FED'S COOK: ECONOMIC GROWTH IS ROBUST, I EXPECT EXPANSION WILL CONTINUE. post: FED'S COOK: THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF RATE CUTS WILL DEPEND ON COMING DATA, THE OUTLOOK, AND THE BALANCE OF RISKS. POLICY IS NOT PRESET.