Week Ahead: US Dollar Poised to Extend Gains

Simple analysis but there are other things to consider. Firstly, the double tarrifs on China can't sustain bcoz China government will look somewhere else to protect their economy and secondly, there would be short of labourer in US if Trump deported immigrants from US.
From Trump campaign of revitalizing industrial establishment to reduce importation into US other affected nations will also increase their tarrifs on import duty from US.
Therefore, US will also find it difficult to cope in global economy which can reduce the importance of US dollar.

I think tariffs are more of a bargaining chip than anything. Also, I think Trump has a good relationship with Xi and does not want the Chinese economy to tank. You are right that there is much more to consider. There will be shifts in the way the global economy operates, but I think the US dollar will continue to show strength, same as it did in the last Trump administration. People keep putting too much emphasis on tariffs as an influence on inflation. Inflation is going to be a non-factor because oil prices are going to dramatically drop and because of that, many other prices will drop with it. Also, China will attempt to use rare earths as a bargaining chip, but there are all ready new discoveries on that front. China's position is weakened, but again, I think the Trump admin wants a healthy global economy. Of course his position is America First, but he does recognize that in order for America to prosper, the global economy must also. There are some very smart people being recruited for the new admin and I'm pretty optimistic about it.

Sure, it remains to be seen how much DJT gets done re: tariffs. But, I think he believes he needs them. Did you ever hear him say much about bringing the deficit down? No, me neither. He's promising to bring taxes down drasticly and cut Federal spending. A popular Republican idea, except they never seem to be able to get that last part done. If they don't cut entitlements or defense, whatever else they may cut won't be enough to prevent the deficit from continuing to rise. So, DJT needs the traiff scheme for revenue. Large scale increase in tarfiffs on imports from everywhere will be hugely inflationary. Keep an eye on the bond market. The Fed is cutting rates, but UST rates are not coming down. If DJT is successful in doing a program of mass deportations, even a fraction of the size that he says he wants to do, that's going to be inflationary, also. A toxic soup of inflationary policies and the Fed will not be able to lower rates much further as that soup is served. The federal deficit will rise dramaticly, UST rates will rise, and US stocks will start to suffer, and we should see big losses in the overinflated stock markets as Trump's policies disrupt the status quo. Just my prediction & we'll see.

If nothing else, the above sounds like a recipe for more and more volatility, and that's always good for trading.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...133545785.html

If you were trading during the announcements of tariffs during the last Trump administration you’ll know the effects of tariffs on the stock market .

There was massive falls and volatility akin to a rollercoaster ride. The market is skimming the cream from the top of an overinflated market in preparation for the clarification of the administration’s proposals.

yeah and that was a pretty limited set of tariffs. If/when we see across the board application to all imports, and then the counter measures, it'll be a different story. DJT has made the tariff program a key part of his economic plan, so I'd guess we will see the first signs almost immediately after he is sworn in. Markets may front-run that by several weeks, we'll see. For now, the Santa rally is the best bet. Enjoy...and keep your powder dry come Q1 2025.

Well said only thing is the Global Economy and USD usually have an inverse relationship. So we may see some weakness in the USD later in his term. I also think that the tariffs are a bargaining chip but he will have to impose some or find another way to make up for the corporate tax cuts he's implied aswell.