The US Dollar and Gold Firm

post: ECB'S KAZIMIR: I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE EVIDENCE OF SERVICES DISINFLATION BEFORE DECLARING VICTORY. post: ECB’s Kazmir: October Cut Leaves December Meeting Wide Open - If Accelerated Pace In Disinflation Confirmed, We Will Be In A Strong And Comfortable Position To Continue The Easing Cycle - Increasingly Confident That The Disinflation Path Is On Solid Footing, But Need More…

Thank you, Ken [Bentsen]. It’s great to be back at SIFMA. The last time I spoke at a SIFMA event, in April 2021, I was serving as manager of the Federal Reserve’s System Open Market Account. I discussed how the expansion of our balance sheet to support the economy amid the pandemic was influencing money market conditions and policy implementation. Today, I will return to the topics of money markets and the Fed’s balance sheet, but from a new perspective as a policymaker and in a very different economic environment. The economy Let me start by reviewing the economic situation. As always, these views are mine and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC held the fed funds target range at the effective lower bound from March 2020 through March 2022 to support the economy during the pandemic, then raised the target range rapidly in 2022 and 2023 in response to surging inflation. Last month, with inflation and employment both in striking distance of the FOMC’s goals rather than seriously overheated, we decided to lower the target range. Less-restrictive policy will help avoid cooling the labor market by more than is necessary to bring inflation back to target in a sustainable and timely way. In thinking about the policy choices ahead, I continue to apply the same foundational considerations I’ve applied since I became president of the Dallas Fed two years ago. First and foremost, I’m committed to sustainably achieving both of the FOMC’s dual-mandate goals: maximum employment and stable prices. I’m also carefully considering how the risk environment affects our strategy. The appropriate policy strategy depends on whether the path ahead is clear or cloudy. And I continue to pay close attention to financial conditions and to the information I receive from the Dallas Fed’s surveys, from business and community contacts, and from market participants like you. Two takeaways stand out to me from the current economic and financial picture. First, the economy is strong and stable. But second, meaningful uncertainties remain in the outlook. Downside risks to the labor post: FED’S LOGAN: I EXPECTS GRADUAL RATE CUTS IF THE ECONOMY MEETS FORECASTS. post: FED’S LOGAN: FED SHOULD TOLERATE SOME MONEY MARKET VOLATILITY post: FED’S LOGAN: THE FED COULD CHANGE THE REVERSE REPO RATE IF CASH DOESN’T LEAVE THE FACILITY. post: FED'S LOGAN: SELLING FED-OWNED MORTGAGE BONDS IS NOT A CURRENT ISSUE.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.5% in September 2024 to 99.7 (2016=100), following a 0.3% decline in August. Over the six-month period ...