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  • US retail sales up 0.4% in September

    From breakingthenews.net

    Seasonally adjusted advance estimates of retail and food services sales in the United States observed a monthly increase of 0.4% to stand at $714.4 billion in September, the Census Bureau said in its preliminary report published on Thursday. The figure stood slightly higher than analysts predicted. On an annual basis, retail and food services sales rose by 1.7% from September 2023. Meanwhile, total sales for the period of three months between July and September rose by 2.3% year-on-year. On a monthly basis, retail trade sales were up 0.3% and increased 1.4% compared to the same month in 2023. On an annual level, ... (full story)

Added at 8:51am

  • US retail sales increase solidly in September

    From businesstimes.com.sg

    US retail sales increased slightly more than expected in September, supporting views that the economy maintained a strong pace of growth in the third quarter. Retail sales rose 0.4 per cent last month after an unrevised 0.1 per cent gain in August, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Thursday (Oct 17). Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, would rise 0.3 per cent. Estimates ranged from no change to an increase of 0.8 per cent. Signs of the economy’s resilience likely will not discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting ... (full story)

It's an awesome US economy. Big buy USD/.JPY towards 161 again
Quoting Ftmofx
It's an awesome US economy. Big buy USD/.JPY towards 161 again
Avoid getting trapped!
Quoting frioslegend
{quote} Avoid getting trapped!
Do you think trap? Wait and see
Quoting frioslegend
{quote} Avoid getting trapped!
Bro it's not a trap as a matter of fact the boys have cashout.
i guess since the economy is "strong" more cuts on the way, USD to head down from here
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Hmmm do you forget so soon the retail panic purchases because dock workers strike?
Quoting Vancarbon
I’d trust these numbers as much as I’d trust Hunter Biden with a briefcase
Yeah, I don't know whether any numbers at this point should be trusted. But I will say that I think if there IS any real enthusiasm/confidence about the future economy it's due to the growing realization that Trump is very likely to win. Just watch any (rare) Kamala interview and think... can you imagine her and her puppetmasters being in charge of ANYTHING? Yikes!
why is it conspiracy nuts always climb from under their rocks and accuse every number to be fake LOL

its close to thanksgiving and Christmas so us Americans gona spend into january

the january number gona be a big disappointment cause we'll take back everything we bought for a refund


don't be idiots...i don't know about your countries and how you celebrate the holidays but us Americans like spending cash and credit LOL
TDS is a beautiful thing Halbot
Quoting Vancarbon
Why can’t Zebi use capital letters to start a sentence ? Grammar lessons required it’s barely legible
im a native born english speaker so I don't need to use translation and typing and chatgpt apps to help me write with perfect grammar like you're doin ... this how we speak and type in informal environments like a chatroom
TDS is a beautiful thing Halbot
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USD/JPY has had an outside month - Circa - July 2024 . I certainly don't know the future - I don't have a Crystal-Ball, however time will tell.

Love the prescient insights - New Day - Same world conspiracy theories!!! Amazing stuff.

Take care and green pips to all. Such is life!!!!
Quoting Vancarbon
I’m English ya prick - colloquial term
if youre english shudnt you be calling me a wanker cause calling someone a prick is an american endearment LOL
TDS is a beautiful thing Halbot
Yes as an American our love to spend knows no bounds. Though I'd like to say a lot of spending is probably done with credit cards as well. That is also to say our credit card debt will make all time highs in lockstep with this overzealous spending we love so much.
The solution is (x).
Today retail sales released data showing that Ai excitement has been increased
It's a fake number intended for pre-electional propaganda.
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Quoting Zebi
why is it conspiracy nuts always climb from under their rocks and accuse every number to be fake LOL
it's a pandemic of willful ignorance. Science is not trusted, actual analysis of anything is considered stupid, unless of course it's questioning of some "official" pronouncement or "mainstream" reporting. People would rather believe the inane babbling of their snakeoil preachers or two-bit gameshow politicians. It's a post-fact world, where any "fact" is considered suspect, and only one's favored political positions have any validity.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
What is the effect of the supposed "faked" retail sales number supposed to be? If the number is high, well that's an indication of persistent inflation, which means the Fed will not need to do any more rate cuts until they see proof of the economy cooling, which means markets would be disappointed? Or is the "faked" number supposed to be an indication of a strong economy, in order to help one of the candidates? Even though the electorate (supposedly) is up in arms about inflation? This is called ambiguity. It takes a bit of mental toughness to live with ambiguity - most people would like the world to be painted in easily digestible black-and-white.

Most US indices are pretty much flat on the day. Maybe the number was not "faked" hard enough.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting The Fool
What is the effect of the supposed "faked" retail sales number supposed to be?
Anybody who has worked in government (and I have been in and out of it over a 40-yr career) knows how laughable it is to get away with any kind of subterfuge. If you were the economist-minion in charge of producing CPI or PPI or any other periodic economic data point, with a team of hundreds, and the POTUS or some other operative came in at the last minute and told you to change your data to fit their agenda, do you really think that would not be exposed? These are not top-secret proceedings - there are hundreds of sets of eyeballs on everything that gets done, and they are never always friendly with each other.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} Was the 818,000 , yes that’s thousand ,wilful ignorance then ? So much for that science you mentioned ! or maybe it was just bad analysis . It’s no wonder people are suspicious- don’t you think? Or should we just be spoon fed all the propaganda our governments tell us ? Yet with all these eyeballs on all this data they somehow miss 818,000 ! Maybe they weren’t wearing their glasses that day
those adjustments are done up and down all the time, there's a reason for it & I'll let you figure it out, if you're interested. Which you're not.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
NFP is seasonally adjusted every year. You can read all about the methodology on the Fed website and elsewhere online. There are rafts of papers criticizing/explaining how the adjustments are done, how the methodology should be changed, etc. 818,000 was a record, I think, but there have been many similar adjustments in the prior decades of seasonal adjustments in the 100,000's. It's just data. The data is what it is. It's not a conspiracy. 99.99% of the US population does not know what NFP is, or what it means, and it's only significant to finance/econ nerds, and, of course, traders.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
Claiming there were WMDs in Iraq was hardly a statistical analysis. I don't blindly believe whatever someone in government says. I know that government officials lie. They just have a harder time doing it when they are using actual data. NFP is an aggregation of data from all the States. I'd say it'd be impossible to fake it. If you go up the chain, and only a few people are responsible, sure, they can all lie. Then it's up to the citizenry and a free press to call them out. We in the USA and the UK are still free to do that. There's no guarantee that such freedom will not be cancelled, though.

Meanwhile, oh snap!....the glorious conspiracy to fake the retail sales number appears to have failed, if market moves are any measure. The stock indices are closing flat; the long bond rates have gone up. Maybe some henchmen heads should roll....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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