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Week Ahead: Is the US Rate Adjustment Nearly Over? Be On Guard for Reversal Patterns
The combination of the stronger-than-expected US September jobs report and the slightly firmer inflation readings lifted US interest rates and the dollar. Several Fed officials spoke, and it did not appear that the employment or price reports changed views as much as it had impacted the capital markets. The September Summary of Economic Projections found a median projection (and 10 officials) that 50 bp of cuts in Q4 would be appropriate, but seven thought only one quarter-point cut. On the eve of the jobs report, the Fed funds futures had nearly 67 bp of easing priced in for the remainder of the year. It settled ... (full story)