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Disappointment with a capital D – watch out for overconfidence
There is a clear and present danger in trade at the moment – overconfidence. Overconfidence that policy and private capital will align and deliver trader a bullish windfall. However, from where we sit, this overconfidence should be defined as likely-disappointment. Let us explain. China 2024 is not China of 1994. After a week away for Golden Week celebrations, there was a hype ahead of Tuesday’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) briefing. The hype was clearly at disproportionate levels. But the hype was not completely unjustified after broad fiscal intervention several weeks ago that included ... (full story)