FOMC Press Conference September 18, 2024

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 17–18, 2024, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2024 to 2027 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. post: *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’24 AT 4.4%; PREV. 5.1% *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’25 AT 3.4%; PREV. 4.1% *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’26 AT 2.9%; PREV. 3.1% *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’27 AT 2.9% *FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST LONGER-RUN AT 2.9%; PREV. 2.8% post: FED PROJECTIONS IMPLY 50 BPS OF ADDITIONAL RATE CUTS IN 2024 FROM CURRENT LEVEL, 100 BPS MORE IN 2025 AND ANOTHER 50 BPS IN 2026 post: FOMC DOT PLOT pic.twitter.com/OFT4mrVis6

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt an post: FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE pic.twitter.com/e4OUTq9nRB post: VOTE IN FAVOR OF POLICY WAS 11-1, WITH FED GOVERNOR BOWMAN DISSENTING; BOWMAN PREFERRED A 25-BASIS-POINT REDUCTION post: FED: THE FOMC HAS GAINED GREATER CONFIDENCE IN INFLATION MOVING SUSTAINABLY TOWARD 2%, JUDGES RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT, AND INFLATION GOALS ARE ROUGHLY IN BALANCE. post: FED: WE WILL CAREFULLY ASSESS INCOMING DATA, EVOLVING OUTLOOK, AND BALANCE OF RISKS IN CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS.

post: POWELL: ECONOMY IS STRONG OVERALL post: FED'S POWELL: THE LABOR MARKET HAS COOLED FROM FORMERLY OVERHEATED STATE. post: Fed’s Powell: Decision Reflects Growing Confidence Strength In Labor Market Can Be Maintained - Consumer Spending Has Remained Resilient, Labor Market Continued To Cool - Improving Supply Conditions Have Supported Demand Over Past Year - Projections Show We Expect GDP Growth To… post: FED'S POWELL: THE LABOR MARKET NOT A SOURCE OF ELEVATED INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. post: POWELL: INDICATORS SUGGEST LABOR MARKET IS NOW LESS TIGHT THAN JUST BEFORE PANDEMIC

post: POWELL: LONGER TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS APPEAR WELL ANCHORED post: POWELL: CONSUMER SPENDING HAS REMAINED RESILIENT post: FED'S POWELL: INFLATION HAS EASED NOTABLY, BUT REMAINS ABOVE OUR GOAL. post: *POWELL: WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE DECISIONS MEETING-BY-MEETING post: FED'S POWELL: UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION HAVE DIMINISHED AND DOWNSIDE RISKS TO THE LABOR MARKET HAVE RISEN.

post: FED'S POWELL: IF THE ECONOMY REMAINS SOLID AND INFLATION PERSISTS, WE CAN DIAL BACK POLICY MORE SLOWLY. post: FED'S POWELL: IF THE LABOR MARKET DETERIORATES WE CAN RESPOND. post: POWELL: ASKED ABOUT 50 BPS CUT, SAYS SINCE LAST MEETING THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF DATA INCLUDING DURING BLACKOUT POWELL: BENCHMARK REVISIONS SHOWED PAYROLLS MAY BE REVISED DOWN POWELL: WE CONCLUDED THAT 50 BPS CUT WAS THE RIGHT THING POWELL: WE WILL MAKE FUTURE DECISIONS BASED… post: POWELL: NOTHING IN OUR PROJECTIONS THAT SUGGEST WE ARE IN A RUSH post: FED'S POWELL: WE LEFT OPEN THE SIZE OF RATE CUT GOING INTO BLACKOUT.